S. with a surface low pressure center across the eastern Great Lakes.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LWX wrote it up.
A upper level trough was moving eastward and across most of the eastern U.S. with a surface low pressure center across the eastern Great Lakes. A cold front moved through the Mid Atlantic with dew points in the low 60s ahead of frontal passage. A strong low level jet on the eastern side of trough aided in strong winds reaching the surface. Flood and flash flood also occurred along or just ahead of the frontal passage.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 29, 9:37 PM EST, 3 hours 50 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
937 PM EST TUE JAN 29 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND THROUGH TONIGHT...LIFTING TO THE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLENTY OF OVERHEAD CIRRUS BUT OTHERWISE ABOUT AS QUIET AS CAN BE
ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER REACHING THE 60S AND L70S EARLIER THIS
AFTN...WHICH WAS ABOUT 25-30 ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AFTER A COLD WEEK LAST WEEK W/ LOW TEMPS WELL INTO THE TEENS AND
20S...WE'LL ONLY DROP DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND
40S OVER THE NRN TIER COUNTIES.
LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME...GUIDANCE WAS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE IN
DROPPING AREAS NORTH OF I-66 UNDER ANOTHER COLD AIR WEDGE FOR THE
MRNG HRS. THE REGIME DIDN'T MOVE TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON
LINE WHICH ALLOWED THE AREA TO CLEAR OUT AND WARM UP TODAY.
ANOTHER AGGRESSIVE PATTERN IS BEING PAINTED EARLY WED BUT FROM A
DIFFERENT AIRMASS. UP/DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD E OF THE BLUE
RIDGE/LEE SIDE OF THE APLCNS...LOCAL HI-RES GUIDANCE IS DEVELOPING
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IN THE PREDAWN HRS BUT FAIRLY CLOSE TO
SUNRISE. THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT FEATURE OF NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE
FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. BUT NOW THAT THE EVEN MORE HI-RES
HOURLY GUIDANCE IS COMING TO LIGHT...IT SHOWS A VERY SCATTERED AND
DISCONTINUOUS FOG DEVELOPMENT - SO KEEPING A PATCHY NATURE TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ABOUT HOW DENSE AND WIDESPREAD FOG WILL
BE...THOUGH FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A THICK LOW STRATUS CLOUD LAYER
FOR THE MRNG HRS. SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE MRNG HRS...BUT THE INCOMING LOW LEVEL JET MAX WILL BE
SO INTENSE...THAT PORTIONS OF IT WILL BEGIN TO MIX DOWN AND
DISSIPATE THE CLOUD DECK. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE STRATUS DECK. SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY EVEN INTO THE AFTN HRS...BUT
CIG HEIGHTS WILL RISE AND SO WILL TEMPS. EXPECTING ANOTHER
ABNORMALLY WARM AFTN...W/ HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S AND 70S
ACROSS THE SRN TIER.
THE WARMER TEMPS WILL BE A FUNCTION OF THE STRONG SLY FLOW...BUT
THESE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY - AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. WELL AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...A PREFRONTAL
AND INTENSE LOW LEVEL JET WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA...BRINGING
STRONG WIND GUSTS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
APLCNS. THE WIND ADZY IN EFFECT FOR TMRW AFTN IS FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 2KFT...THOUGH THE VLYS AND PIEDMONT WILL RECEIVE A FRACTION
OF THESE GUSTS - IN THE 20-30MPH RANGE...W/ HIGHER GUSTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE WAY AND MOVING ACROSS THE DOORSTEP
OF THE CWA LATE TMRW EVE. PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LATE WED
NIGHT...WELL AFTER SUNSET. THIS COULD LIMIT WHATEVER MINIMAL CAPE
THAT MAY BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL
BE A MINIMAL FORCE ANYWAY W/ ANOTHER INTENSE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
JET. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THIS FEATURE WILL CONTAIN 80-100KT WINDS
IN THE 800-900MB LAYER JUST A COUPLE/FEW THOU FT UP - OVER
DELMARVA AND THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. THESE WINDS WILL TAPER
OFF BACK ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND PIEDMONT BUT STILL BE IN THE
50-60KT RANGE. DEPENDING ON HOW STABLE THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF
FRONT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SVR WIND GUSTS
EMBEDDED IN THE LINE OF HEAVY RAIN/ISOLATED TSTMS.
PWATS OVER ONE INCH ARE EXPECTED AND THE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE
WITH LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. FOR THE
FLOOD THREAT...DESPITE THE DEEP MOISTURE - THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE. THE QUICK MOVING SYSTEM SHOULD PREVENT A WIDESPREAD
THREAT FOR FLOODING. HOWEVER...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 1 TO
1.5 INCHES IN THREE TO SIX HOURS LOCALIZED FLOODING CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA LATE WED NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MRNG
HRS THU...PRECIP WILL END QUICKLY ACROSS THE SHENANDOAH VLY AND
EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR INTO THE PREDAWN HRS. WINDWARD
SIDES OF THE APLCNS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PRECIP...WHICH WILL BEGIN
TO MIX W/ SNOW AND EVENTUALLY BECOME ALL-SNOW INTO THE MRNG HRS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO THU...
SETTING US UP FOR A BREEZY AND DRIER - AND COLDER - DAY ON THU.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE AREA. A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW FOR CANADIAN AIR TO RETURN DURING THIS TIME...CAUSING CHILLY
CONDITIONS.
THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT...BUT IT APPEARS THAT ANY
ACCUMULATION WOULD BE LIGHT. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA. A SECOND DISTURBANCE
WILL PASS THROUGH LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A THIRD SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE A BIT
STRONGER.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT PRESUMABLY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A
STRONG INVERSION AND WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW FAVORING SOUTHEAST.
GUIDANCE OVERFORECASTED STRATUS/FOG LAST NIGHT...WHICH REDUCES
CONFIDENCE FOR TONIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...CAN/T IGNORE MAV/MET/SREFS
WHICH ALL POINT TO IFR OR LOWER DEVELOPING SO HAVE LEANED IN THE
MORE PESSIMISTIC DIRECTION FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. GOOD
AGREEMENT DOES EXIST IN STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE INVERSION...AND
LLWS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN TAFS. MODELS ALSO POINT TO A SLOWER COLD
FRONTAL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY...WITH PERHAPS MUCH OF THE PRECIP
HOLDING OFF UNTIL EVENING AT THE HUBS.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY EVENING AROUND 30 TO 35 KNOTS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME WEDNESDAY
EVENING...BUT IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. HEAVY SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BE BETWEEN 00Z AND 3Z FOR KMRB AND 3Z TO 6Z ELSEWHERE.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AND AGAIN LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT BUT WILL QUICKLY JUMP INTO SCA CRITERIA JUST
AFTER DAWN WED. GUIDANCE THEN RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS SURFACE WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY...WHERE GALE FORCE WINDS APPEAR LIKELY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A GALE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WILL BE BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1 AM.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED AND A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT
THE WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL PUSH WATER UP THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND
THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. DESPITE THE LOW ASTRONOMICAL
NORMS...MODERATE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEAR TIMES OF HIGH TIDE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR TIDAL ANOMALIES TO DECREASE THURSDAY.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MDZ007-011-013-014-016>018.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
MDZ501.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ052>055-057.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
VAZ025>027-029-503-504.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
WVZ050-055-501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ530>543.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ530>543.
&&
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...BPP/BJLHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 938 PM EST TUE JAN 29 2013 ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ006-007-011-013-014-016>018-VAZ052>057- 301545- CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA- PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR- CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY- CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER- PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD- TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD- SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS- CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA- KING GEORGE- 938 PM EST TUE JAN 29 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT AREAS OF DENSE FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A GALE WARNING MAY ALSO BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG THE SHORE OF THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND WESTERN SHORE OF THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY. SEE WBCCFWLWX FOR FURTHER DETAILS. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND AGAIN LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MDZ003>005-009-010-501-502-VAZ025>031-036>040-042-050-051-501>504- WVZ050>053-055-501>506-301545- WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD- EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA- ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON- ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER- NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND- EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY- WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL- WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON- 938 PM EST TUE JAN 29 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA... NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN MARYLAND. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN MARYLAND...EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA. SEE WBCNPWLWX FOR FURTHER DETAILS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH BRANCH POTOMAC NEAR SPRINGFIELD THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AND AGAIN LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
The Sterling radar (KLWX), 71 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 06:27 UTC.
10 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
There was a tree down blocking a road near intersection of SanFord Drive and Paul Lane.
There were trees down on the 3200 block of Browns Gap Turnpike.
There were trees down blocking US Highway 29 near the intersection of US Highway 250 NW of Charlottesville.
There was a tree knocked down onto power lines along Brush lane.
There were trees down across Rockfish River Road.
There were trees down across the county.
There were several trees down across Preddy Creek Road.
There were a few trees down across Jerico Mills Road.
There was a tree down along Greens Corner Road.
There were several branches about three inches in diameter knocked down.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2013Every state in 2013This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, January 2013
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 429660, 429624, 429625, 429628, 429626, 429659, 429623, 429656, 429658, 429627.