High Wind and Strong Wind in Utah, October 28, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
958 PM MDT SUN OCT 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFTER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NEARLY STATIC AND PLEASANT
WEATHER...A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE IS ON THE WAY. THIS WAS
ALREADY EVIDENT BY THE NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN SOUTH WINDS TODAY
ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEYS AND HIGH-ELEVATION SITES AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS STORM IS CURRENTLY NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CENTERED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON. LARGE-SCALE
LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE HAS RESULTED IN A RAPID INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS. MOST OF THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AS THE LOWER LEVELS REMAIN RATHER DRY AT
THIS TIME. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 9000FT OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH ENHANCED WINDS WILL KEEP
VALLEY MIN TEMPERATURES MUCH WARMER TONIGHT.

AS THE STORM SYSTEM ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS...EXPECT WINDS TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY PEAK LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AND A WIND ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE.

OCCASIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE
A VORT MAX EJECTING OUT OF THE LOW PUSHES A BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG
WITH A MORE INTENSE BAND OF PRECIPITATION EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL UTAH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD FALL TO AROUND
6500-7000FT DURING THIS TIME. THIS BAND IS THEN EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY ALONG A LINE FROM APPROXIMATELY SOUTHWEST WYOMING THROUGH
SOUTHWEST UTAH DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS ANOTHER VORT MAX EJECTS
ACROSS THE AREA. OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN LINGER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY UNDER THE 500MB COLD POOL AND AS ADDITIONAL VORT LOBES
ROTATE AROUND THE PARENT LOW. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT NEAR
5500-6000FT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO THAN THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.

SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE MOST PART ARE MARGINAL FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. GIVEN THAT THE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY MINOR AND
LIMITED TO HIGH ELEVATIONS...NO WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE
CURRENTLY IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT CAN REEVALUATE
SINCE THE BULK OF THE SNOW WILL NOT BEGIN UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

MADE SOME UPDATES TO THE FORECAST TO INCREASE SKY COVER ACROSS THE
NORTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND TO BUMP POPS UP SLIGHTLY IN
A FEW ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC
TERMINAL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM MDT MONDAY FOR
     UTZ005-013>016-019>021.

WY...NONE.
&&

CHENG/KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
553 AM MDT SUN OCT 27 2013

UTZ001>016-019>021-517-518-WYZ021-281200-
CACHE VALLEY/UTAH PORTION-NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS-SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS-WASATCH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-
WASATCH MOUNTAINS I-80 NORTH-WASATCH MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-80-
WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-WASATCH PLATEAU/BOOK CLIFFS-
WESTERN UINTA BASIN-CASTLE COUNTRY-SAN RAFAEL SWELL-
SANPETE/SEVIER VALLEYS-WEST CENTRAL UTAH-SOUTHWEST UTAH-
UTAHS DIXIE AND ZION NATIONAL PARK-SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH-
GLEN CANYON RECREATION AREA/LAKE POWELL-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST WYOMING-
553 AM MDT SUN OCT 27 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
THE COLD AIR REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LOWER
MAX TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 DEGREES BY TUESDAY FROM HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND.

STRONG SOUTH WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN OUTLOOK AREA AROUND MIDDAY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN OUTLOOK AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON WHILE WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH OVER THE WEST.

VALLEY RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN OUTLOOK AREA BY LATE MONDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING AT TIMES INTO WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AROUND 6000 FEET BY EARLY TUESDAY AND
MAY DIP LOW ENOUGH TO REACH THE NORTHERN VALLEY FLOORS FOR A TIME
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE LONG DURATION OF THIS STORM COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY INTO THE HIGHER
VALLEYS BY THE TIME PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF LATE WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR INFORMATION ON POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS VISIT...
HTTP://WWW.UDOTTRAFFIC.UTAH.GOV/ROADWEATHERFORECAST.ASPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1226 AM MDT MON OCT 28 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     TSTM WND GST     15 W WEST WARREN        41.26N 112.44W
10/28/2013  M66 MPH          BOX ELDER          UT   MESONET

            PROMONTORY POINT SENSOR PRP

&&

CRK