High Wind in Texas, October 10, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1201 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2013

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Return flow will
continue, gusty at times, in response to leeside trough
development to the north. Forecast soundings suggest a cu field
developing by late morning SW, then developing NE, w/bases 7-8 kft
agl. Models bring a shortwave thru SW flow aloft Thursday
afternoon, developing convection over the eastern terminals, and
this will need to be monitored.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2013/

DISCUSSION...

Another warm afternoon in progress across the area with
temperatures well above normal. Our upper air pattern has
transitioned to southwesterly as a strong s/w digs into the UA
trough along the West Coast. This has induced a lee sfc trough
over the region which has lead to the warm temperatures and strong
southerly winds. Winds will only increase as the upper storm gets
closer and lifts into the Plains on Thursday. Guidance has been
consistent with the wind speeds remaining below advisory criteria
over the Permian Basin. It's a little more tricky in the Guadalupe
Mountains closer to where the system will lift north. Models show
700 MB winds over GDP of 30-35 kts so even with a bit of mixing do
not expect high wind warning criteria to be reached, and if so,
not for very long. Temperatures will still be warm, but winds
will be much less by Friday as we await the next storm system to
dig into the Intermountain West this weekend.

Moisture begins to increase Saturday as 50 and 60 degree dewpoints
spread west across the area. There won't be much upper level support
for precip, however moderate isentropic lift and a weak frontal
boundary in the area may lead to showers across mainly the eastern
half of the area. This will likely continue into Sunday so will
raise PoPs a bit, but keep QPF low.

Did not change much in the extended as it still looks like a cold
front will arrive sometime Tuesday. Have cooled temps down Tuesday
and Wednesday and kept the forecast dry thereafter.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
237 PM CDT WED OCT 9 2013

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-101945-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
237 PM CDT WED OCT 9 2013 /137 PM MDT WED OCT 9 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND