Unseasonably warm air, with afternoon temperatures reaching into the 60s and low 70s, and a surge of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico interacted with a slow moving cold front during the afternoon and evening hours of January 30th, resulting in strong low-topped showers and thunderstorms and widespread heavy rainfall. Despite weak CAPE associated with the frontal passage, low level wind shear was in excess of 60 knots across the region, which made for strong squall lines of shower activity, often with strong winds but little to no lightning. Precipitable water values were observed to be in the 1.0 to 1.5 inch range, which is extremely high for January across the Appalachians and the nearby Piedmont region. To add to the flooding threat, ground conditions were already saturated from recent rain and snow during the days and weeks preceding the event.
The following is a list of total rainfall amounts, in inches, that fell across northern North Carolina:
- Ashe County - | 5.34 2 E Todd CCR,| 5.05 Jefferson 2 E COOP,| 4.46 Laurel Springs RAWS,| 3.86 Transou COOP,| 1.29 Ashe County Airport.
- Rockingham County - | 1.05 Eden COOP.
- Stokes County - | 1.42 Danbury COOP.
- Surry County - | 2.77 Raven Knob RAWS,| 2.39 Mount Airy COOP,| 2.31 Ararat River at Ararat,| 1.82 Elkin COOP.
- Watauga County - | 5.79 Boone 1 SE COOP,| 5.28 Boone RG (TVA),| 4.32 1 WSW Foscoe CCR,| 4.25 3 ENE Blowing Rock,| 3.76 Triplett RG DCP,| 2.69 Howards Knob IFLOWS,| 2.19 Watauga River/Foscoe IFLOWS,| 1.00 Blackburn Knob IFLOWS.
- Wilkes County - | 2.81 5 WNW Purlear CCR,| 2.68 Wilbar RG DCP,| 2.58 Rendezvous Mountain RAWS,| 1.92 Roaring River DCP,| 1.87 W Kerr Scott Reservoir COOP/DCP,| 1.75 North Wilkesboro COOP,| 1.71 Elk Creek at Elkville DCP.