High Wind in North Carolina, February 3, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
347 PM EST SUN FEB 3 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS TODAYS DISTURBANCES TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...

LAST IN THE SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE CLIPPERS NOW CROSSING THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH THE ASSOCIATED 85H TROF NOW OVER THE WEST WHERE SEEING
SNOW SHOWERS TAKING ON MORE OF A BANDED FORMATION. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DRYING GRADUALLY WINNING OUT FROM ALOFT TONIGHT BUT
SETUP EARLY ON APPEARS GOOD UNDER THE DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION FOR NW FLOW -SHSN TO PERSIST AND SPILL EAST FOR A WHILE
LONGER UNTIL THE 85H COLD ADVECTION STARTS TO FADE. THIS COULD
PRODUCE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ALONG THE UPSLOPE AREAS BEFORE
MOISTURE BECOMES TOO SHALLOW FOR MUCH MORE THAN FREEZING DRIZZLE
LATER ON. THUS HAVE DOWNGRADED THE WARNING TO A WINTER WX ADVISORY
IN EFFECT THROUGH 100 AM MONDAY FOR ONLY ADDED LIGHT AMOUNTS.
OTHER ISSUE WITH WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS LAST WAVE AS GUIDANCE
SHOWS A QUICK UPTICK IN PRESSURE RISES THIS EVENING WHILE THE
INVERSION LOWERS UNDER THE PASSING 85H COLD POOL. PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALSO KICK IN AS THE EXITING LOW DEEPENS WELL
OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST. THINK
STRONGER SPEEDS SHOULD BE BRIEF BUT ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTIONING
HIGHER WINDS WITHIN THE WINTER WX ADVISORY TONIGHT. OTRW WILL HANG
ONTO HIGHER CAT/LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FAR WEST THIS
EVENING...GRADUALLY TAPERING TO JUST SLIGHT POPS EXTREME NW DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOW TEMPS A BIT TRICKY WITH CLEARING OUT
EAST AND CLOUDS WEST...WHILE MIXING LINGERS AND COLDEST AIR ALOFT
PULLS OUT. THEREFORE PLAN TO RUN CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET
MOS OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE LESS THAN IDEAL SETUP FOR COOLING.

WILL BASICALLY GET IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OVERHEAD EARLY AND QUICKLY TO THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL START TO ZIP MID/HIGH CLOUDS BACK IN FROM THE
WEST BY AFTERNOON JUST AS MOST OF THE STUCK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE WEST STARTS TO EXIT. HOWEVER APPEARS SHOULD BE DRY FOR
THE MOST PART WITH ONLY SOME INTRO OF LOW END POPS FAR NW UNDER
THE WARM ADVECTION SPILLING SE AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM CLIPPER
COMPLEX. BATTLE BETWEEN WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND CLOUD
COVER WILL AGAIN MAKE FOR A TEMP STRUGGLE ESCPLY WEST WHERE SNOW
COVER MAY KEEP HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S FOR THE MOST PART. THINK THE
SE COULD JUMP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ESPCLY WHERE CAN MIX
BETTER UNDER PERHAPS MORE EARLY SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EST SUNDAY...

FAST FLOW ALOFT LINGERS WITH THE PERSISTENT EASTERN UPPER TROF
SET TO SPILL ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE FEATURE SE ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE NW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER UPPER SUPPORT WILL
TEND TO SPLIT WITH THIS 5H TROF COMPLEX...LEAVING A DAMPENING VORT
AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING JUST TO THE NORTH
MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN DEEPER MOISTURE STAYING WELL SOUTH WILL HAVE
TO RELY ON INITIAL WEAK DYNAMICS AND MORESO OF A FROPA UNDER THE
WAVE FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF WESTERLY UPSLOPE EARLY TUESDAY TO
PRODUCE SIG PRECIP. LATEST NAM AGAIN REMAINS THE MORE ROBUST WITH
LIFT/QPF NW/WESTERN SLOPES WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE
12Z EC MORE MODEST WITH A LOBE OF LIGHTER SNOW NW IN MORE OF A
QUICK HITTER TYPE FASHION ALONG THE FRONT. ALSO SINCE WONT BE
DEALING WITH SUCH HIGH SNOW RATIOS THIS TIME AROUND GIVEN LESS DRY
AIR AND MARGINAL TEMPS...THINK SNOWFALL LESS EFFICIENT OUTSIDE OF
THE HIGHER WESTERN SLOPES SO BLENDING IN BETWEEN THE WETTER NAM
AND GFS/EC. THIS WOULD SUPPORT ENOUGH SNOW FOR ANOTHER WATCH FOR
JUST GREENBRIER CTY AT THIS POINT AS APPEARS FARTHER SOUTH MAINLY
AN ELEVATION SCENARIO AND NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET FOR HEADLINES
THERE INCLUDING ANY ADVISORIES SINCE 3RD PERIOD.

OTRW UPPED POPS AND WENT A BIT FASTER IN BRINGING IN PRECIP
MONDAY EVENING WITH SOME OF THIS AGAIN SPILLING OUT TO AND OVER
THE BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER 85H TEMPS WILL BE WARMING TO AOA 0C FOR A
WHILE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT SO MAY INIT WITH MORE RAIN
OR PERHAPS A LIGHT WINTRY MIX SW BEFORE SWITCHING BACK TO SNOW AS
COLD AIR SWINGS BACK IN ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. LEFT
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH DECENT MIXING UNDER THIS
FEATURE DURING THE NIGHT.

SYSTEM EXITS TUES MORNING WITH THE COLUMN DRYING FROM ABOVE AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER TUESDAY. EXPECT UPSLOPE TO ALSO
DIMINISH DURING THE DAY BUT WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
FROM THE NW WILL HAVE TO KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING TYPICAL
WESTERN SLOPES FOR NOW ALTHOUGH PERHAPS MORE RAIN SHOWER NATURE
SOUTH OF BLF GIVEN THE WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER. OTRW CUTTING POPS
ELSW WITH TEMPS SURGING INTO THE 40S BLUE RIDGE AND 50S SE. AFTER
ANOTHER COLD TUESDAY NIGHT UNDER SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES...THE FLOW
TURNS MORE ZONAL FOR MIDWEEK ALLOWING ADDED WARMING ALOFT AND MORE
SUN ON WED. GUIDANCE TEMPS REMAIN QUITE WARM BUT GIVEN HIGH
PRESSURE IN WEDGE FASHION TO THE NORTH CHOSE TO STAY WELL BELOW
MOS MOUNTAINS ESPCLY WHERE HAVE SNOW COVER. APPEARS THE EAST MAY
AGAIN BE ABLE TO PUSH ABOVE 50 BUT MAINLY PIEDMONT GIVEN LIGHT
EAST/NE FLOW. CLEAR AND COLD AGAIN UNDER RIDGING WED NIGHT WITH
THE SNOW COVERED NW LIKELY DROPPING INTO THE TEENS WITH MAINLY 20S
ELSW GIVEN BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 331 PM EST SUNDAY...

BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN FLIRTING WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THERE'S BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH TODAY'S 12Z RUNS THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH LATE
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. SO HAVE BEGUN THE PROCESS OF INCREASING
POPS. ATTM...H85 TEMPS ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT NE
COMPONENT FROM BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS JUST BEFORE THE EVENT AND
CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW FOR A WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT...MAY ALLOW SOME
FREEZING RAIN TO MIX IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH AND NE/W
GREENBRIER COUNTY...WHICH ARE USUAL FREEZING RAIN SUSPECTS. DOESN'T
REALLY LOOK IMPACTFUL AT THIS POINT. LOOKING LIKE JUST A COLD RAIN
ELSEWHERE. OTHER THAN MORE RAIN APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND PROBABLY A WARM DAY ON SUNDAY WITH DEEP
SW FLOW...THE REST OF THE LONG TERM IS QUIET WITH NOTHING TO
COMPLAIN ABOUT TEMPERATURE WISE FOR THE FIRST FEW WEEKS OF FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF NOON EST SUNDAY...

UPPER TROF AXIS PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION ATTM...AND RADAR SHOWS
THIS IS KICKING OFF SOME SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT DOWNSLOPE TO KEEP
KLYH...KROA...AND KDAN MOSTLY PRECIP FREE SO WILL NOT INCLUDE
ANYTHING IN THE TAFS THOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WAS A
FLURRY OR SPRINKLE. EXPECT KLWB AND KBLF TO STAY WITH UPSLOPE PRECIP
FOR A WHILE AS FLOW IS COMING AROUND TO A FAVORABLE NW DIRECTION.
KBCB WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SOME PRECIP AS WELL. DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT VSBY RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIP.

EXPECT AFOREMENTIONED DOWNSLOPING AREAS TO MAINTAIN VFR CIGS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...CIGS FOR UPSLOPE AREAS SHOULD START OUT MVFR
AND CIGS UPSTREAM INDICATE THINGS WILL GET LOWER THIS EVENING. BASED
ON EXPECTED TRENDS...WILL INTRODUCE SOME IFR CIGS FOR KBLF AFTER 21Z
AND AT KLWB AFTER 06Z. BELIEVE CIGS WILL IMPROVE TOWARD 12Z AS LOW
LEAVE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE DRIES OUT.

MODELS INDICATE A WIND MAX DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE TROF.
CAA SHOULD BE EFFECTIVE IN MIXING THE WINDS DOWN SO EXPECT SOME
SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DROPPING RAPIDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THIS SHOULD
HELP TO LIGHTEN THE WINDS.

.EXTENDED AVIATION...

ZONAL FLOW EARLY/MID WEEK WILL TRANSITION TO A WESTERN TROF WITH
INDUCED RIDGING EAST. NEXT WEAK SYSTEM WILL ZIP BY TO OUR NORTH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND EXPECT MVFR/IFR FOR KBLF AND KLWB
TRANSITIONING TO VFR FOR DOWNSLOPE SITES. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
NOSE IN WITH SOME QUIET WX FOR MIDWEEK. NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE REGION MAY BE FRIDAY AS A LOW MOVES OUT OF THE GULF AND
THROUGH THE SE US...THOUGH GFS AND EURO DIFFER ON HANDLING WITH EURO
STRONGER AND GFS WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. COULD BE SOMETHING
STARTING AS LIQUID AND CHANGING TO FROZEN ALONG WITH UPSLOPE
ACTIVITY ON THE BACKSIDE. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS UNFOLD THROUGH
THE WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ007-009-
     010-012-015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ042-043-
     045.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR WVZ045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...MBS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
341 PM EST SUN FEB 3 2013

WVZ045-042045-
GREENBRIER-
341 PM EST SUN FEB 3 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ALONG WITH BLOWING SNOW MAY OCCUR TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ007-009-010-012-WVZ042-043-042045-
TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-WYTHE-MERCER-SUMMERS-
341 PM EST SUN FEB 3 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ001-018-VAZ015-042045-
ASHE-WATAUGA-GRAYSON-
341 PM EST SUN FEB 3 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR STRONGER WILL ALSO OCCUR TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ALONG WITH A LIGHT WINTRY MIX MAY
OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ002-VAZ011-013-014-016>020-WVZ044-042045-
ALLEGHANY NC-GILES-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-
ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-MONROE-
341 PM EST SUN FEB 3 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER COATING TO ONE INCH OF SNOW THIS
EVENING. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH MAY ALSO OCCUR
THROUGH THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW MAY OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ022>024-034-035-042045-
ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-BEDFORD-AMHERST-
341 PM EST SUN FEB 3 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 OR 45 MPH MAY OCCUR THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ032-033-043>047-058-059-042045-
SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WILKES-YADKIN-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-HENRY-
PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
341 PM EST SUN FEB 3 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1231 PM EST SUN FEB 03 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1151 AM     SNOW             5 NNW LEONARD           38.15N  80.44W
02/03/2013  M5.0 INCH        GREENBRIER         WV   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER RNK1300479

KM