Drought in Nebraska, October 1 to 31, 2013

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, October 2013 marked the 17th consecutive month during which drought of at least category D2 Severe intensity resided within some portion of South Central Nebraska, prolonging one of the most notable droughts since the 1950s. However, on a positive note October was also the second consecutive month of drought improvement for parts of the area, as the total number of counties entirely or partially assigned D2 Drought dwindled from 11 at the start of the month to only six at month's end...the fewest number since early-July 2012. All six of these worst-off counties were clustered in the far southwest portion of the 24-county area: Dawson, Gosper, Phelps, Furnas, Harlan and Franklin. Meanwhile, much of the northeast half of South Central Nebraska, generally northeast of a Kearney-Superior line, observed a one-category drought improvement over the course of the month, thanks in large part to a significant rain event on the evening of the 2nd into the early morning of the 3rd, which dumped a widespread 2-5 inches and locally higher amounts. For eastern counties such as Hamilton, Polk, York and Fillmore, this event helped end a streak of four-consecutive months of below normal rainfall. Most areas that received this early-month deluge improved from D1 Moderate Drought to D0 Abnormally Dry (considered to be one category better than true drought). Furthermore, a small corridor running from eastern Adams County through southwest Clay County into northern Nuckolls County became void of all drought classification (including D0) as a result of this soaking rain event. Along the interface between the northeast areas that saw decent October rains and the much drier southwestern counties that did not, a generally north-south corridor of D1 Moderate Drought remained intact at month's end within the majority of the following counties: Valley, Sherman, Buffalo, Kearney and Webster.

Reports from around 50 NWS Cooperative Observers, and also radar-derived estimation, revealed that roughly two-thirds of South Central Nebraska observed above normal October precipitation, and at least one-third of the area piled up at least twice-normal monthly totals (based on long-term October normals generally between 1.80-2.10). Per a combination of NWS cooperative observers and NeRAIN observers, a few of the highest October precipitation totals featured a remarkable 10.34 five miles northwest of Wolbach (most of which fell on the 2nd), 6.62 four miles east of Scotia, 6.59 five miles northeast of Osceola, 6.57 six miles north of Nelson and 5.85 at Geneva. At Hastings airport, the monthly total of 4.75 resulted in the 3rd-wettest October on record dating back 119 years. Within the much-drier southwestern section of the area, some of the lowest monthly precipitation totals were 0.78 at Franklin, 0.79 at Cozad, 1.11 at Harlan County Lake and 1.22 at Minden. In between these wettest and driest extremes, the majority of the 30-county area reported widely-varying amounts somewhere between 1.50-4.00.

Taking a look at longer-term precipitation trends, year-to-date (Jan. 1-Oct. 23) totals across most of the 24-county area ranged from 80-110 percent of normal, meaning that most areas hadn't observed an extreme surplus or deficit in annual moisture, in contrast to the notable deficits endured one year ago in 2012. However, without question the driest conditions so far in 2013 continued to focus within the southwest one-third of South Central Nebraska, mainly southwest of a line from Lexington-Red Cloud, including only 75% of normal precipitation eight miles south of Elwood. In contrast, the greatest coverage of at least slightly above normal precipitation so far in 2013 primarily focused north of Interstate 80 within counties such as Greeley, Sherman, Nance and Howard (including 123% of normal two miles west of Genoa), along with limited areas farther south including parts of Adams, Clay and Nuckolls counties. According to the USDA Nebraska Crop Progress and Condition Report for the week ending October 20th, state-averaged topsoil moisture supplies had improved considerably since mid-September, now rating only 29% short or very short and 69% adequate (versus 60% and 40%, respectively, back on Sep. 15th). State-averaged subsoil moisture supplies had also improved, but still rated 55% short or very short, down from 72% five weeks prior. The state-averaged corn crop checked in 68% good or excellent, and only 14% poor or very poor, although dryland corn only rated 46% good or excellent. As a whole, Nebraska soybeans rated 69% good or excellent and only 10% poor or very poor, although sorghum checked in 40% poor or very poor and only 35% good or excellent. Statewide stock water supplies exhibited a small improvement, now only 20% poor or very poor, versus 28% in mid-September. Finally, pasture and range conditions changed very little over the preceding five weeks, rating 37% poor or very poor and only 27% good or excellent.