Heavy Rain in Missouri, August 12, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
351 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2013

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

The main focus for highest PoPs and Weather through tonight will
be over West Kentucky and Southwest Indiana, as the effective
surface boundary become oriented over this area. With periodic
vorticity advection moves through the area, periodic shower and
thunderstorm activity will be the rule. This frontal boundary should
shift south of the WFO PAH forecast area by daybreak on Tuesday.

Beyond that time, dry air advection begins in earnest as the mean ridge
moves southward from the Great Lakes and upper midwest. Noticeable
dewpoint drops should be in place by Wednesday, setting the stage
for much cooler temperatures later in the week.

The high resolution model guidance, as well as the short range guidance
suite, still keeps the frontal passage consistent into Tuesday,
with some minor

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

The main feature of interest beginning this period will continue to
be unseasonably strong high pressure that will stretch from the
Great Lakes region east to the Mid Atlantic coast. Unseasonably cool
and dry northeast flow will remain in place Thursday and Friday.

However, a mid/upper level trof of low pressure will slowly develop
and dig southeast into the mid MS River Valley Friday night...before
becoming nearly stationary next weekend. Guidance has been
consistent in showing an inverted surface trough forming in response
to the mid lvl troffing. Moisture associated with these features
will bring an increase in clouds...and also possibly spawn scattered
showers east of the MS River next weekend. At this point, it looks
like the atmosphere will be too stable to warrant a mention of
thunder...and the increased cloud cover will delay any appreciable
warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SUN AUG 11 2013

With the approach of a cold front, there could be MVFR fog
overnight and SHRA between 09-17Z, then possible MVFR cigs/vsbys
aft 20Z with the passage of TSRA...otherwise expect VFR
conditions. Light and variable to calm winds expected through the
night, then pick up out of the southwest AOB 5 kts aft 14-15Z. &&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...JP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
438 AM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-131000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
438 AM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLOODING, WILL THE PRIMARY HAZARD AT THIS
TIME. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS WILL LIKELY RESIDE OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW STORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING MARGINAL HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 40
MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE OUTLOOK AREA ON TUESDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER WEST KENTUCKY INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MARGINAL HAIL, AND ISOLATED WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, ANY
REPORTS OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING CONCERNS, AS WELL AS THE
OCCURRENCE OF HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS IS APPRECIATED.

SMITH