Flash Flooding and Damaging Wind in Kentucky, August 12, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
127 PM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK SO NO UPDATE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1211 PM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST. REMOVED STALE AFTERNOON
WORDING FROM THE ZONE TEXT PRODUCT AND MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL...THE
FORECAST REALLY DID NOT CHANGE A WHOLE LOT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1025 AM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

A NUMBER OF CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
WITH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG NO LONGER AND ISSUE THIS MORNING...THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM. A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO ADDRESS ANY REMAINING ISOLATED PATCHES OF
DENSE FOG IN FAR NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH 11 AM. CURRENT TRENDS
IN RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED THAT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST IS NOT NEARLY AS EXTENSIVE AS THE INHERITED
FORECAST INDICATED. THE FORECAST MODELS WERE NOT PICKING UP ON THIS
VERY WELL EITHER...SO THE FORECAST GRIDS AND ZONE FORECAST TEXT
PRODUCT WERE BOTH MODIFIED TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS. IN A
NUTSHELL...THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO SHOW AN DELAYED ONSET OF NEW
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST A COUPLE OF HOURS
LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNT...12 HOUR
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AND WEATHER TYPE GRIDS WERE ALL MODIFIED
TO REFLECT THESE CHANGES AS WELL. THE UPDATED ZONE FORECAST TEXT
PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

AN AMPLIFIED 50H PATTERN WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A TROF
OVER THE ERN CONUS. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NRN PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH DRIER
AIR INFILTRATING THE COMMONWEALTH. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A MOSTLY
DRY FCST FOR MUCH OF ERN KY UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK. BY FRI
MORNING AN INVERTED TROF AT THE SFC WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO CREEP
INTO THE AREA AND DAY TIME HEATING COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS. EVEN
AS THIS IS HAPPENING...AT THE 50H LEVEL A VORT MAX IS DROPPING INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS TO REINFORCE THE ERN TROF. THIS VORT MAX WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND INTO A CLOSED LOW AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SLIPS TO NEW ENG AND ALLOWS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO INVADE THE REGION
WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIP.

WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE FILTERING COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA...EXPECT
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR WED AND THU BEFORE THE RETURNING
SOUTHERLY FLOW CAN BOOST HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 80S BY FRI. 80S WILL
CONTINUE INTO SAT BEFORE THE EXPECTED PCPN WILL RESTRICT HIGHS BACK
TO AROUND 80 FOR SUN AND THE UPPER 70S FOR MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN AT THE TAF SITES WILL BE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN TONIGHT AS WELL...BUT DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...THE FOG WILL LIKELY NOT BE DENSE AND NOT NEARLY AS
WIDESPREAD AS IT WAS LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING WHEN SKIES WERE
MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DUSTY
AVIATION...AR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1025 AM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-131730-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
1025 AM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THESE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MAINLY SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE ANTICIPATED FOR ALL OF EAST
KENTUCKY FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN REPORTS OF RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF
AN INCH OR ANY INCIDENCE OF HIGH WATER.

GREIF/AR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
950 AM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

KYZ107-109-110-112-113-115-118>120-121500-
JOHNSON-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-BREATHITT-KNOTT-PERRY-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAINTSVILLE...SALYERSVILLE...
PRESTONSBURG...JACKSON...HINDMAN...HAZARD...WHITESBURG...INEZ...
PIKEVILLE
950 AM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

...DENSE FOG PERSISTING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL STUBBORNLY PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. THE FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES. DRIVERS SHOULD REDUCE SPEED AND USE
THEIR HEADLIGHTS WHILE DRIVING THROUGH THE FOG.

AR