Flash Flooding and Flooding in Kentucky, August 12 to 13, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
700 AM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST PRIMARILY TO FINE TUNE POPS AND WX THROUGH
THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE CURRENT
RADAR AND TRENDS. ALSO TWEAKED THE MORNING LOWS IN THE GRIDS ALONG
WITH THE T/TD GRIDS...AND THEIR DIURNAL CURVE...FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE FOG REMAINS DENSE IN PLACES NORTH OF
JKL WITH SOME DENSE PATCHES IN THE SOUTH...TOO...THOUGH THE ARRIVAL
OF LOWER CLOUDS AND CONVECTION HAS HELPED TO MIX THE AIR AND LIMIT
THE FOG NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING FOR
NOW. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW LYING WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA. THIS SHOWS UP IN THE LATEST
RADAR DATA...AS WELL...WITH SIGNS OF CONVECTION ALONG IT IN EAST
KENTUCKY AND SHOWERS POPPING NEARBY THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY...CIGS HAVE CLEARED OUT AND THIS HAS ALLOWED
WIDESPREAD FOG TO FORM WITH REPORTS OF IT LOCALLY DENSE IN MANY OF
THE VALLEYS NORTH OF JKL. FOR THIS REASON...AND THE EXPECTATION OF AT
LEAST PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS BY DAWN...A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY UNTIL 10 AM. JUST A HINT
OF A NORTH TO SOUTH TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY. T/TD ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY...WITH VALUES IN THE LOWER 70S TO THE SOUTH.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT...AT LEAST LOCALLY...THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ALL DEPICT A DEEP TROUGH NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND STOUT RIDGING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER WILL BRING SHORTWAVES ALONG WITH IT. A MORE DECENT ONE
WILL BE COMING OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND START TO IMPACT EAST
KENTUCKY LATER TODAY...PASSING THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL HELP
TO DRAG THE LARGER TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
SOME HEIGHT FALLS BY EVENING. ONCE AGAIN...THE MORE MESOSCALE
DETAILS PRIMARILY WILL GUIDE THE WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
ACCORDINGLY...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE NAM12 WITH SOME BOLSTERING OF
ITS SOLUTION FROM THE LATEST ECMWF...AND IN THE NEAR TERM...THE
CURRENT HRRR RUN.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A FOGGY START TO THE DAY FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 10 AM AND THEN EXPECT THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO THE CWA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANOTHER RIPPLE ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT. THIS ONE WILL HAVE SOME DECENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND PLENTY
OF MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT...SO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A THREAT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...SOMETHING WE WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. EXPECT
SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT AND THEN A NORTH TO SOUTH DIMINISHING
TREND TO THE CONVECTION WITH TIME ON TUESDAY AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
FROM FRONT STARTS TO MOVE SOUTH. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S
TODAY AS THE ARRIVING CONVECTION...AND MORNING FOG...LIMIT THE RISE.
THEY LOOK EVEN COOLER TUESDAY WITH THAT FRONT AND ITS SHOWERS/TSTORMS
DROPPING SOUTH...TONIGHT WILL STILL BE RATHER WARM AND MUGGY...
THOUGH.

USED THE CONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR WINDS AND DEWPOINTS
THROUGH 24 HOURS...THEN CONSALL THEREAFTER. WITH TEMPS...FAVORED
THE CONSALL FOR MAX AND MIN VALUES ALONG WITH ITS DERIVED DIURNAL
CURVE. AS FOR POPS...HAVE ENDED UP CLOSER TO THE VERY WET MET NUMBERS
TODAY AND THEN AT OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN A MET/MAV CONSENSUS ON
TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

AN AMPLIFIED 50H PATTERN WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A TROF
OVER THE ERN CONUS. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NRN PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH DRIER
AIR INFILTRATING THE COMMONWEALTH. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A MOSTLY
DRY FCST FOR MUCH OF ERN KY UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK. BY FRI
MORNING AN INVERTED TROF AT THE SFC WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO CREEP
INTO THE AREA AND DAY TIME HEATING COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS. EVEN
AS THIS IS HAPPENING...AT THE 50H LEVEL A VORT MAX IS DROPPING INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS TO REINFORCE THE ERN TROF. THIS VORT MAX WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND INTO A CLOSED LOW AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SLIPS TO NEW ENG AND ALLOWS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO INVADE THE REGION
WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIP.

WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE FILTERING COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA...EXPECT
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR WED AND THU BEFORE THE RETURNING
SOUTHERLY FLOW CAN BOOST HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 80S BY FRI. 80S WILL
CONTINUE INTO SAT BEFORE THE EXPECTED PCPN WILL RESTRICT HIGHS BACK
TO AROUND 80 FOR SUN AND THE UPPER 70S FOR MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

FOG REMAINS A PROBLEM EARLY THIS MORNING AT THE JKL SITE WHERE VLIFR
CONDITIONS ARE HOLDING. FURTHER SOUTH...THE FOG IS MORE VARIABLE AND
LIGHTER DUE TO LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN WITH THE NEXT BATCH
OF CONVECTION CROSSING INTO THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. STILL EXPECT ALL
THE FOG TO CLEAR BETWEEN 13 AND 14Z. THEN WE WILL LIKELY SEE BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE
AIR FIRST...EXPANDING TO COVER THE REST EAST KENTUCKY AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER 16Z. CONTINUED THE VCTS IN THE TAFS BEFORE GOING TO
STRAIGHT UP TSRA PREVAILING BY MID AFTERNOON AT LOZ AND SME. WOULD
ANTICIPATE A LULL IN THE MORE CONCENTRATED CONVECTION THIS EVENING
BEFORE ANOTHER BAND MAY RAMP UP LATE TONIGHT. HAVE TRIED TO TIME THIS
IN KEEPING WITH THE PUBLIC FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. AWAY FROM ANY
STORMS...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DUSTY
AVIATION...GREIF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
440 AM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-131145-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...
HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...
INEZ...PIKEVILLE
440 AM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH DENSE PATCHES
REDUCING VISIBILITY DOWN TO A FEW YARDS IN PLACES. THE FOG SHOULD
START TO CLEAR OUT BY 10 AM.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THESE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MAINLY SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE ANTICIPATED FOR ALL OF EAST
KENTUCKY FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN REPORTS OF RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF
AN INCH OR ANY INCIDENCE OF HIGH WATER.

GREIF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
153 AM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 AM     FLOOD            BARBOURVILLE            36.87N 83.88W
08/11/2013                   KNOX               KY   PUBLIC

            UP TO TWO FEET OF WATER COVERING COLLEGE STREET NEAR
            DOWNTOWN BARBOURVILLE.

&&

GREIF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
219 AM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BARBOURVILLE            36.87N 83.88W
08/11/2013                   KNOX               KY   PUBLIC

            4 TO 8 INCHES OF FLOWING WATER ACROSS DOZIER LANE.

&&

GREIF