Low pressure quickly developed and moved across southern Kentucky during the morning hours of January 25th, sending a wintry mix into southern Kentucky. The majority of the precipitation fell as freezing rain with up to 1/2 ice accumulation observed in Perry, Bell, Rockcastle, Clay and Harlan Counties.
Every event with a place to put it; 18 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
Low pressure quickly developed and moved across southern Kentucky during the morning hours of January 25th, sending a wintry mix into southern Kentucky. The majority of the precipitation fell as freezing rain with up to 1/2 ice accumulation observed in Perry, Bell, Rockcastle, Clay and Harlan Counties.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 25, 3:53 AM EST, 1 hour 37 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 353 AM EST FRI JAN 25 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 340 AM EST FRI JAN 25 2013 THE FORECAST CHALLENGE AND MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAINS THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED WITH A SFC WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TODAY. LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY IN THE FREEZING RAIN VARIETY HAS BEEN REPORTED RECENTLY OVER MIDDLE TN JUST TO THE WEST OF THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA. AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FURTHER MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS OCCUR OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON FRI...PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE TOWARD THE REGION. THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH SUCH THAT PRECIP SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION A LITTLE BEFORE SUNRISE IN THE FAR SW AND THEN OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS ALL THE WAY TO THE WV BORDER AND OVER NORTHEASTERN KY. A VERY DRY AIRMASS IS IN PLACE AT THE LOW LEVELS...BUT AS MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES ALOFT...THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD MOISTEN AS THE ATMOSPHERE GRADUALLY STARTS TO SATURATE. THERE ARE SEVERAL CHALLENGES WITH THIS SYSTEM...INCLUDING QPF...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH. THE OZ NAM WAS WETTER THAN MOST OVER GUIDANCE AND THIS TREND CONTINUES INTO THE 6Z RUN...THOUGH AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS. THE SECOND CHALLENGE IS WHETHER OR NOT CLOUDS WILL BE PRIMARILY SUPERCOOLED WATER VERSUS HAVING ICE PRESENT AND IF SO HOW LONG ICE IS PRESENT. THIS WILL DETERMINE NOT ONLY HOW HEAVILY PRECIP MIGHT FALL...AS IF ICE IS PRESENT THE MOISTURE WOULD BE DEEPER AND LEAD TO MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW. AS IT STANDS NOW...ANY SNOW WOULD BE MOSTLY NON DENDRITIC AND THUS SMALL FLAKS...LIMITING POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS. THE OTHER CHALLENGE WILL BE SFC TEMPS MOVING TO AROUND OR ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK IN THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION AND POSSIBLY SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. THE GROUND IS COLD GOING INTO IT SO THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR EITHER FROZEN OR FREEZING PRECIP ACCUMULATING EVEN DURING THE DAYTIME SINCE SUN ANGLES...THOUGH INCREASING...ARE STILL RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS TIME. ALL OF THIS COMBINED SEEMS TO POINT TO A RELATIVELY BRIEF THREAT OF SLEET BETWEEN ANY TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN. SINCE THE GFS IS EVEN MORE PESSIMISTIC ABOUT THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE IN THE ICE RANGE OR CLOUDS...NEAR -10C...POINTS TOWARD MAINLY A SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO IN CASES WHERE TEMPS REACH 32 OR HIGHER JUST LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE SCENARIO. SLEET WOULD ALSO BE BRIEFLY POSSIBLE. THE MODELS THOUGH ARE EVEN DOUBTFUL THAT PRECIP WOULD BE ALL SNOW AT ONSET AS WELL. CONFIDENCE IS PRECIP TYPE AT ANY GIVEN TIME AND TIMING OF PRECIP TYPE CHANGE IS BELOW AVERAGE SINCE THE EVENT SHOULD START IN MOST PLACES IN LESS THAN 6 HOURS. THE CURRENT THINKING HAS LESS SNOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA NEAR LAKE CUMBERLAND OF LESS THAN AN INCH AND GENERALLY LESS THAN HALF OF AN INCH FOR THAT MATTER...WITH THESE MORE SOUTHERN LOCATIONS RECEIVING A TENTH TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE. THIS IS BASED ON QPF LEANING A BIT TOWARD THE NAM...BUT ALSO FACTORING THE LOWER QPF MODELS AS POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE EVAPORATED AND SUBLIMATED AWAY IN THE PROCESS OF MOISTENING UP THE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS. THIS LEADS TO AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW AND A TENTH OF AN INC OR LESS OF ICE ACCUMULATION OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...POSSIBLY CLOSER TO TWO INCHES IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KY AND THE BIG SANDY VALLEY AND HIGHER TERRAIN FROM HARLAN COUNTY NORTHEAST INTO PIKE COUNTY. THIS IS CONTINGENT ON PRECIP BEING ALL SNOW FOR TWO OR THREE HOURS...WHICH IS UNCERTAIN. A QUICKER TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN FROM NO ICE BEING PRESENT OR ICE PRESENCE BEING VERY BRIEF WOULD INCREASE ICE AMOUNTS ACROSS THE BOARD. ANY INCREASE IN DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH NEAR THE TN BORDER WOULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE AMOUNTS TO EXCEED TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. CONFIDENCE IN THAT OCCURRING IS LOW AT THIS TIME. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES THE SHORTWAVE WILL DEPART TO THE EAST...WITH DEEP MOISTURE DEPARTING LEAVING JUST DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE LEFT. OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION...TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE SLOW TO CLIMB TODAY AND MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY START AND END TIME WILL NOT CHANGE BASED ON REASONING NOTED ABOVE. SOME OF THE WORDING WILL BE AJUSTED AND FRESHENED UP BASED ON CURRENTLY EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS. THE NAM HOLDS ONTO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRATUS/STRATOCU LONGER THAN THE GFS ON AVERAGE TONIGHT AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS USUALLY SLOW TO DEPART OFTEN TIME SLOWER THAN THE MODELS WOULD ADVERTISE. SO ALTHOUGH BY LATE EVENING TO SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT THE THREAT OF ANY LINGERING DRIZZLE SHOULD BE OVER...CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TO HOLD TEMPS UP...WHEN COMBINED WITH NEARLY NEUTRAL TEMP ADVECTION. THE WARMER MET MOS NUMBERS...WHICH WERE IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE FAVORED. MODELS ARE A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH THE MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH AS HEIGHTS RISE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MAV MOS NUMBERS AND ECMWF NUMBERS ARE ACTUALLY WARMER. THE MET NUMBERS REMAIN THE COLDEST. SNOWCOVER OR LACK OF SNOWCOVER WILL PLAY A ROLE IN MAX FOR SAT. AT THIS TIME...LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO HAVE SNOWCOVER TO START THE DAY ON SAT WERE FORECASTED TO BE THE COLDEST...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WERE RAISED ACROSS THE BOARD. AS HAS OCCURRED THIS WEEK WHEN THE AIRMASS BEGAN TO MODERATE...THE SOUTHWESTERN LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE CUMBERLAND AND ESPECIALLY THE TN BORDER WILL BE WARMEST...APPROACHING 40 IN SOME CASES. IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT FURTHER UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO SAT MAX T MAY NEED TO BE MADE. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 340 AM EST FRI JAN 25 2013 ACTIVE WEATHER IN STORE FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERIOD WILL START OFF RATHER QUIET...AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. BY THE END OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE A WARM FRONT DRIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL INTERACT WITH SURFACE MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SPARK SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE FROM TIME TO TIME SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS THE FRONT MEANDERS ABOUT THE OHIO RIVER. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY BE COOL ENOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING TO ALLOW SOME SNOW TO MIX WITH THE RAIN...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR AND NORTHWESTWARD TO THE I64 CORRIDOR. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE RIVER...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE WEST. THIS NEXT FRONT WILL BE VERY SLOW TO CROSS THE AREA...AND WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LIGHT TO SOMETIMES MODERATE RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT IN PARTICULAR...AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS MAIN PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT TRIGGER WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. ANY SNOW SHOWERS THAT FORM WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN SHORT PERIOD VERY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL AROUND FREEZING AT THE SURFACE. ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OUT OF EASTERN KENTUCKY BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THURSDAY...THE MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY WITH REGARDS TO THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH EACH MODEL PRODUCING VERY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE REGION DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WHILE THE GFS BRINGS A VIGOROUS MOISTURE LADEN STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS DURING THAT TIME FRAME. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED IN THE LAST DAY OR SO OF THE FORECAST...DECIDED TO KEEP THAT PERIOD DRY FOR NOW...AT LEAST UNTIL THE MODELS COME INTO SOME SEMBLANCE OF AGREEMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF WARM MOIST AIR OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO STREAM INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. HIGHS ON MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S...WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...COLDER AIR WILL BRING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EXPECTED TO ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE BOARD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 115 AM EST FRI JAN 25 2013 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...BEFORE CEILINGS RAPIDLY LOWER INTO AND THROUGH THE MVFR RANGE AND HEAD TOWARD THE IFR OR LOWER RANGE BETWEEN ABOUT 14Z AND 18Z. CIGS MAY FALL TO NEAR OR PERHAPS BELOW AIRPORT MINS THEREAFTER AND REMAIN AT OR NEAR THESE LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. PRECIP TYPE AT ONSET IS IN DOUBT... BUT WILL PROBABLY BE A MIX OF A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET...TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE AND ULTIMATELY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN THE SOUTHWEST AT SME AND LOZ. THE PRECIP SHOULD END PRIOR TO THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT LOW CIGS AND/OR VIS SHOULD REMAIN. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044- 050>052-058>060-104-106>113-115-118>120. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ068- 069-079-080-083>088-114-116-117. && SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM....AR AVIATION...JP
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1057 PM EST THU JAN 24 2013 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-104-106>113-115-118>120-251200- FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ELLIOTT-MORGAN- JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-PERRY-LETCHER- MARTIN-PIKE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING... OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG... SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE... PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...HINDMAN...HAZARD... WHITESBURG...INEZ...PIKEVILLE 1057 PM EST THU JAN 24 2013 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM EST FRIDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW AND SLEET NEAR DAWN. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW ON FRIDAY. SEE THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DETAILS. SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORTS SNOW AMOUNTS AND ANY OCCURRENCE OF FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE. KYZ068-069-079-080-083>088-114-116-117-251200- ROCKCASTLE-JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL- HARLAN-OWSLEY-CLAY-LESLIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON... MONTICELLO...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE... MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...HARLAN...BOONEVILLE...MANCHESTER...HYDEN 1057 PM EST THU JAN 24 2013 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 11 PM EST FRIDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW AND SLEET AFTER 4 AM. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW ON FRIDAY. SEE THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DETAILS. SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORTS SNOW AMOUNTS AND ANY OCCURRENCE OF FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE. JJ/GEOGERIAN
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
11 ice storm, 4 winter weather, 3 winter storm. Local standard time, as filed.
A combination of freezing rain and sleet accumulated up to 1/2 in Middlesboro with up to 1/10 of ice and sleet reported in Pineville.
Freezing rain accumulated up to 4/10 on Pine Mountain with lesser amounts of freezing rain, sleet and snow in Harlan.
Ice amounts ranged from 1/10 in Monticello up to 1/4 on the east end of the county near the McCreary County line.
Ice amounts ranged from 2/10 near the Tennessee state line up to 1/4 in the northern end of the county.
Ice amounts ranged from 2/10 in Somerset up to 1/4 in the southern end of the county. More than 100 automobile accidents were reported across the county during the morning.
Ice amounts ranged from 2/10 in London with 1/4 amounts in the northern and southern end of the county.
Up to 1/2 of ice was reported 1 mile southwest of Livingston, with 1/8 reported in Mt. Vernon and the remainder of the county. Several accidents were reported on I-75 and other county roads during the morning.
Ice amounts ranged from 1/8 up to 1/4 in the town of Corbin. Multiple accidents were reported around Corbin during the morning due to the icy conditions.
Up to 1/4 of ice was reported around Island City with less amounts to the north.
Ice amounts ranged from 1/10 in the northwest end of the county, up to 1/4 near Annville.
A quarter inch of ice accumulation was reported in Barbourville.
A mix of sleet and freezing rain fell across the county. Up to 1/2 of sleet was reported with up to 4/10 of freezing rain observed around Manchester.
Up to 1/4 of ice was observed in Hyden.
Freezing rain and sleet accumulated up to 1/10 with at least one accident reported across the county due to slick road conditions.
Ice accumulations ranged from 1/10 north of Hazard up to 1/2 south of Hazard with many roads reported impassable during the morning due to ice covered roads.
Up to 2/10 of freezing rain was reported near Leburn with roads ice covered, slick and hazardous.
Up to 1/10 of ice and snow made driving conditions treacherous across the county.
Several accidents were caused by black ice due to light freezing rain during the late morning hours.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2013Every state in 2013This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, January 2013
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 430574, 430575, 430523, 430529, 430531, 430535, 430544, 430556, 430538, 430551, 430559, 430565, 430569, 430540, 430541, 430571, 430576, 430580.