A low level jet developed during the evening of April 27 across Tennessee. This jet intersected an elevated warm front and brought widespread thunderstorms to northern Tennessee and the southern two tiers of counties across central Kentucky.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LMK wrote it up.
A low level jet developed during the evening of April 27 across Tennessee. This jet intersected an elevated warm front and brought widespread thunderstorms to northern Tennessee and the southern two tiers of counties across central Kentucky. Spotty flooding developed across southern Kentucky, especially near Bowling Green, where two to three inches of rain fell within a three hour period during the late evening hours. These rains led to subsequent flooding of Drake's Creek near Alvaton, as well as the Barren and Green Rivers, over the next few days.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 27, 7:32 PM CST, 1 hour 2 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 932 PM EDT SAT APR 27 2013 .Mesoscale Update... Issued at 930 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2013 Isentropic lift associated with a warm front has tapped into some modest elevated instability to fuel deep convection along the Kentucky/Tennessee border. Boundary layer will remain cool enough overnight that we will have a hard time bringing any severe convective weather down to the surface. However, storm motion threatens to train over areas that received the heaviest rain Friday night and earlier today. Special Weather Statement has been issued for a cluster of storms producing excessive lightning south of Bowling Green. Nothing has changed with the forecast as a whole, so minimal updated to the grids. Believe that the main issue overnight will be frequent lightning and localized nuisance flooding, which will be best handled with short-fuse statements and/or advisories. Severe convection may also be on the table as well, but those chances remain quite low. && .Short Term (Now through Sunday Night)... Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2013 The first wave of precipitation today is having trouble making its way northward this afternoon. The rain has become less widespread and lighter. However most of north central Kentucky should still see some light showers through the afternoon hours. The warm front associated with the surface low over Arkansas is still south of the forecast area. It will continue to push northward this afternoon and into the overnight hours as the low lifts to the northeast across IL and IN. Another round of showers will move into the region overnight as moisture surges in and instability increases. Soundings show mid level lapse rates increasing and the atmosphere becoming unstable in the warm sector overnight, so there continues to be the chance for some thunderstorms tonight and tomorrow. A weak cold front will finally push through late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening, bringing an end to the precipitation. This front will not have much colder air associated with it, however. Temperatures tonight will be tricky as they look to remain near steady in some areas across south central Kentucky or even rise a few degrees as the warm front moves north. Lows will likely only be in the mid to upper 50s. Temperatures tomorrow will top out in the mid to upper 60s with lows tomorrow night dropping back into the low 50s. .Long Term (Monday - Saturday)... Issued at 315 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2013 A challenging long term forecast is in store with a weak upper trough exiting the area early in the week and then a potent upper low pushing into the Plains states for late in the week. First of all, an exiting upper level trough will cause a few remaining showers/rumbles of thunder on Monday. This would be most likely during the morning hours according to moisture profiles, so have cut back on afternoon POPs. High temps on Monday should stay mild in the lower 70s for highs with low temps in the lower 50s. We'll then see a dry day on Tues and most of the area should remain dry on Wed as well as strong high pressure at the sfc and aloft build over the eastern CONUS in response to a deepening trough over the central CONUS. Temperatures will warm up nicely Tues/Wed with the ridging and southerly flow in place. Expect highs to reach the upper 70s and lower 80s both days with night time lows in the mid to upper 50s. Soundings on Wed look unstable so if we can get a little upper level wave or disturbance in the flow, we could see some isld convection. Overall though, the main action looks to stay well to our west so have trended POP values down and farther west. For the latter half of the week, the 12Z GFS/GFS ensembles have come into better agreement with the 12Z Euro (and previous Euro runs) in the potent upper trough becoming a strong cut off low over the Plains states by next weekend. The low looks to wobble over the Plains states for much of the weekend pushing vort waves eastward in our direction. This should cause showers/t-storms over the area Thurs-Sat with the better day looking like Sat at this point. A good portion of Thurs/Fri may actually be dry but that's hard to pin down at this point, so will leave low POPs in the forecast. Temps Thurs-Sat will be highly dependent on the precip but overall the forecast looks warmer than previously thought as long as the models continue to agree that the upper low will stay well to our west. Therefore went with highs ranging through the 60s and lowers 70s and lows in the 40s for Thurs-Sat. Stay tuned for coming updates on this weekend's forecast as variations in the model guidance have made this a low confidence forecast. && .Aviation (00Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 740 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2013 Warm front is still over Tennessee, with an area of isentropic lift triggering showers with embedded thunderstorms along the KY/TN line southwest of BWG. SDF and LEX have seen MVFR ceilings lift above the fuel-alternate threshold, but lower stratus is lurking as close as HNB and FTK. The challenge in this TAF issuance will be just how far north the solid precip shield is able to spread, and how much of the night it will drop conditions into IFR. Believe there is enough low-level moisture advecting in to support lowering ceilings and what could be a persistent rain during the night. Will take BWG down to IFR around midnight, with SDF and LEX dropping to low-end MVFR. Thunder just upstream of BWG will warrant at least a TEMPO group for TS, but the threat diminishes in the less favorable environment farther north and east. Therefore have gone with VCTS in SDF, which may even be on the bullish side, and no mention in LEX. By late Sunday morning, the upper trough axis will be far enough east to bring an end to the precip. However the boundary-layer flow will remain out of the SW, and even from the south in LEX, and plentiful low-level moisture will keep us under a high-end MVFR ceiling for the bulk of the afternoon. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. KY...NONE. Mesoscale........RAS Short Term.......EER Long Term........AMS Aviation.........RAS
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED TYPOS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 345 PM EDT SAT APR 27 2013 INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067- 070>078-081-082-281945- ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN- PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY- MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY- OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY- HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY- NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY- LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY- EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY- WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY- ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON... JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY... JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG... BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX... MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE... BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN... CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON... PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG... NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE... LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE... GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE... BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE... EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY 345 PM EDT SAT APR 27 2013 /245 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. && MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE. EER/AMS
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
749 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013
KYZ070>073-280115-
ALLEN KY-LOGAN KY-SIMPSON KY-WARREN KY-
749 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013
...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...
THROUGH 9 PM...A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND PONDING OF WATER
DUE TO HEAVY RAIN...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AS THESE
STORMS MOVE THROUGH.
* THESE STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
FRANKLIN...
THREE SPRINGS...
SCOTTSVILLE...
RUSSELLVILLE...
PLUM SPRINGS...
TURNERTOWN...
SALMONS...
HILLSDALE AND WOODBURN...
TEMPERANCE AND MATLOCK...
THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 65 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 20 AND 6.
THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT THE NATCHER PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1
AND 7.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING. EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON LOCAL
ROADWAYS. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS IF
ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS.
IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
LAT...LON 3665 8636 3664 8706 3684 8706 3707 8623
3696 8615 3692 8618 3691 8615 3693 8614
3690 8615 3686 8610 3689 8610 3688 8610
3681 8607 3678 8603 3677 8605 3675 8601
3666 8595 3663 8597 3663 8606
TIME...MOT...LOC 0045Z 256DEG 26KT 3676 8667
RASSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
750 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013
KYZ070>073-280115-
ALLEN KY-LOGAN KY-SIMPSON KY-WARREN KY-
750 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013
...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...
THROUGH 9 PM...A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND PONDING OF WATER
DUE TO HEAVY RAIN...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AS THESE
STORMS MOVE THROUGH.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.
* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
FRANKLIN...
THREE SPRINGS...
SCOTTSVILLE...
RUSSELLVILLE...
PLUM SPRINGS...
TURNERTOWN...
SALMONS...
HILLSDALE AND WOODBURN...
TEMPERANCE AND MATLOCK...
THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 65 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 20 AND 6.
THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT THE NATCHER PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1
AND 7.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING. EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON LOCAL
ROADWAYS. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS IF
ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS.
IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
LAT...LON 3665 8636 3664 8706 3684 8706 3707 8623
3696 8615 3692 8618 3691 8615 3693 8614
3690 8615 3686 8610 3689 8610 3688 8610
3681 8607 3678 8603 3677 8605 3675 8601
3666 8595 3663 8597 3663 8606
TIME...MOT...LOC 0045Z 256DEG 26KT 3676 8667
RASThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
5 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Local law enforcement reported that Three Springs Road was briefly closed due to high water.
Small House Road in northern Bowling Green had water over the road.
Heavy rains on the evening of April 27, led to minor flooding of Drake's Creek at Alvaton. This creek has a flood stage of 22 feet. It reached a crest of 29.1 feet during the early evening hours on the 28th of April.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rains across Warren County during the evening of April 27th. This led to minor flooding on the Barren River at Bowling Green. This river crested during the late morning hours on April 29 at 28.1 feet, just above its 28 foot flood stage.
Heavy rains the evening of April 27th led to minor flooding on the Green River at Woodbury. Flood stage at Woodbury is 33 feet. The river crested at 36 feet during the early afternoon on April 30th. Just before midnight on May 1st, the river had fallen to 35 feet. The river finally fell below flood stage by noon on May 1st.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2013Every state in 2013This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, April 2013
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 437527, 437528, 438754, 438755, 438756.