Along and north of a slow-moving warm front over western Tennessee, clusters of moderate to heavy rain occurred. These clusters moved eastward across southern Kentucky, where the ground was saturated.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Along and north of a slow-moving warm front over western Tennessee, clusters of moderate to heavy rain occurred. These clusters moved eastward across southern Kentucky, where the ground was saturated. Southwest low-level flow on the order of 20 to 30 knots overran the surface warm front. The air mass south of the warm front was characterized by precipitable water values of 1.2 to 1.5 inches. The persistent nature of the very moist southwest flow overrunning the warm front resulted in very heavy convective rainfall along the Tennessee border, mainly from Murray eastward.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 27, 2:41 AM CST, 4 hours 19 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 341 AM CDT SAT APR 27 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT SAT APR 27 2013 WARM FRONT SPRAWLED OUT ALONG OUR SOUTHERN BORDER WAS FOCUS OF OVERRUNNING SHOWERS AS SEEN ON RADAR ATTM. MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME GRASPING THE EXTENT OF THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/HENCE THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS LTG PLOT SHOWS STROKES REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS OUR SRN COUNTIES EVEN AT THIS HOUR. THEREFORE WE'LL BE GRACIOUS IN EXTENDING THE SLGT CHC/CHC MENTION OF THUNDER/MAINLY ELEVATED ACROSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE LOW TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND THE GFS DOES APPEAR TO HAVE A HANDLE UPON ITS TRACK ENEWARD TOWARD FAR SEMO. AS THIS OCCURS...THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL ARC NORTHWARD...AND AGAIN BECOME THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS PM/EVENING. THIS WILL OCCUR AFTER ABOUT A 3 HOUR MIDDAY TO MID PM PAUSE IN THE CONVECTIVE MODE AS THE SURFACE LOW MAKES ITS APPROACH. THE WARM SECTOR WILL ARC NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND THE MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL HELP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES REACH INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE BY LATE PM. WEST OF THE LOW TRACK/ACROSS OUR NWRN MOST COUNTIES WILL EXIST SUFFICENT ELEVATED OVERRUN POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER CONTINUATION THERE AS WELL. BUT ALONG THE BOUNDARY/WHERE HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST INCREASING HELICITY SUFFICIENT FOR SLGT TOR THREAT...AND IN THE WARM SECTOR WHERE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR MID LEVEL SHEAR IS MAXIMIZED...WILL BE A SLGT RISK SVR. THE NEW SWODY1 JUST PAINTED THE SLGT RISK JUST TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS W TN...WHERE MAX/STEEPEST LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST. A CLOSE EYE WILL BE NEEDED ON THE WEATHER THIS PM HOWEVER AS THIS COULD EASILY SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO OUR FA. THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND FILLS SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE A LINGERING BUT LESSENING POP THROUGH THAT TIME PERIOD...LOSING SAID POPS BY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE TN VALLEY SUN NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT SAT APR 27 2013 THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH THE PAH FORECAST AREA UNDER A MID LEVEL RIDGE AND A FAIRLY LIGHT SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. IN THE WARM SECTOR...PCPN SEEMS UNLIKELY BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE ON WED...THUS NO BETTER THAN SLIGHT CHANCES OF A TSTM WERE KEPT IN. IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WE DECIDED TO BOOST HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ESPECIALLY FOR WED. THE MED RANGE MODELS...AND THE GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS...SHOW AN LONGWAVE TROF THAT IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AND MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE PLAINS BY MID WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DEPICTED MODEL PATTERNS TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE INITIALLY...BUT GENERALLY POPS SHOULD BEGIN TO RAMP UP A BIT WED NIGHT AS THE SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES. BY THEN...THE 00Z GFS SEEMED TO BE THE FASTEST WITH THE EWD MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...FOLLOWED BY THE UKMET. THE ECMWF/GEM WERE MUCH SLOWER WITH THE EWD PROGRESSION...AND SHOWED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE PLAINS STATES. THE ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOWED THE SAME GENERAL TENDENCY OF TIMING...BUT OF COURSE WITHOUT THE EXTREME DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF THE MID LEVEL LOWS. THE 00Z GFS EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW BY FRI...BUT IT IS SHOWN TO BE FARTHER EAST...AND IN OUR GENERAL VICINITY. BEST BET SEEMED TO BE TO SHOW A GENERAL EWD PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM LIKE THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. ATTM...THIS SHOULD YIELD THE BEST POPS ON THU...GRADUALLY FADING AWAY IN THE WRN HALF OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG WITH CHANCES OF TSTMS. EXPECT ANOTHER SUBSTANTIAL COOLDOWN AFTER WED AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL...AND NWRLY LOW LEVEL WINDS DOMINATE. && .AVIATION... ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT SAT APR 27 2013 RAIN WILL CAUSE CIGS AND VSBYS TO GRADUALLY LOWER THIS MORNING. KCGI/KPAH WILL SEE MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS KEVV/KOWB AREAS...SINCE THE RAIN WILL BE SLOWER TO REACH THOSE AREAS. AS A WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION DURING THE DAY...THE RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE KEVV/KOWB AREAS...REDUCING CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR. MEANWHILE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE IN KCGI/KPAH TERMINALS DURING THE DAY...BUT THEN SOME ISOLATED THUNDER SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM THE EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. MO...NONE. IN...NONE. KY...NONE. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 332 AM CDT SAT APR 27 2013 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-281000- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 332 AM CDT SAT APR 27 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE QUAD STATE. THAT IS WHEN MAXIMUM INSTABILITY WILL INTERSECT WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND YIELD THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EXISTS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA. FLOODING CONTINUES ON AREA RIVERS...REFER TO THE WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS WILL CONTINUE...SO REFER TO THE WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR YOUR DETAILED INFORMATION. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
The Paducah radar (KPAH), 70 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 12:57 UTC.
2 flash flood, 1 flood, 1 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
Kentucky Highway 1828 was closed due to flooding. A trained spotter in the area measured 1.40 inches of rain in about 24 hours.
Several county roads were closed by flooding. Water was over numerous other roadways. Highway 121 just south of New Concord was flooded and dangerous. Radar estimated that 3 to 5 inches of rain fell during the previous 24 hours.
Flash flooding occurred in the downtown area of Guthrie. Streets in Guthrie were closed due to high water on them. Some of the streets were not known to flood in the past. Basements of several homes and a couple of businesses were flooded. Water up to 8 inches deep was reported over a 500-yard stretch of U.S. Highway 41 between Trenton and Guthrie. Highway 181 in southern Todd County had up to a foot of water over it in some spots. Up to a foot of water was reported over a couple of other roads. Radar estimated that 3 to 5 inches of rain had fallen over southern Todd County in 24 hours.
The 36-hour rainfall total was 4.25 inches.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2013Every state in 2013This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, April 2013
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 441640, 441636, 441635, 441637.