Drought in Illinois, October 1 to 31, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1142 PM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE REGION YESTERDAY HAS MIGRATED
EAST...GIVING WAY BREEZY SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND SOMEWHAT
WARMER TEMPERATURES. UPSTREAM...A SURFACE TROUGH WAS DEVELOPING
OVER THE DAKOTAS INTO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED ONLY THIN CI OVER THE LOCAL AREA
UPSTREAM INTO NEB AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...WHILE A LARGER FIELD
OF LOW CLOUDS WAS TO THE SOUTH STRETCHED ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AS CLOSE AS CENTRAL MO INTO SOUTHERN IL.
ALOFT...12Z ANALYSIS SHOWED A MOSTLY ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN
U.S. WITH EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION. A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A 130 KT JET AT 300 MB MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NW...THAT WILL BRING BEGIN A PERIOD OF MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AS IT
PASSES TO THE NORTH LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE AS THE DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER
THE PLAINS MIGRATES E-SE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.
TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
SUSTAIN SOUTHERLY WINDS IN A 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
DESPITE ONLY THIN CI EXPECTED IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...THIS WEAK
MIXING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THE PAST
FEW NIGHTS. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS WITH MINS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THE AREA OF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW
CLOUDS TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST HAS BEEN EDGING SLOWLY NORTH
TODAY AND COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO LIGHT FOG OR PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
IN THE FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THIS
POSSIBILITY WILL BE MINIMAL AS THE MOISTURE GETS SHEARED OFF AND
NUDGED NORTHEASTWARD BY A DEVELOPING...MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE LATE TONIGHT.

TUESDAY...LATEST MODELS ARE IN ROUGH AGREEMENT DEPICTING THE
ADVANCING TROUGH OR WEAK COOL FRONT ADVANCING TO NEARLY BISECT THE
FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE IS LACKING AND THUS PRECIPITATION IS NOT LIKELY...AND EVEN
CLOUD COVER WILL BE MINIMAL. THIS WILL ALLOW THE DEEPEST PREFRONTAL
MIXING TO OCCUR IN THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID
80S. AN EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LIMIT HIGHS
TO THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE IA HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE SOUTH THIRD OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWFA. DRY LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH MAY ALLOW VERY
CHILLY TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH THIRD OF THE CWFA AND FAVORED
COLD AREAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL.

WED NIGHT THE FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH. RETURN FLOW AND INCREASING
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH ALOFT WILL KEEP SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS GOING ON THURSDAY. CLOUD COVER MAY HOLD
TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN 75 TO 80.

THURSDAY NIGHT ON...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHC POPS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND
SCHC POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. TRENDS IN THE MODELS INDICATE MORE
ENERGY ALOFT THAT IS SLOWING THE OVERALL SYSTEM AND PUSHING IT TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST.

THE GULF WILL BE WIDE OPEN AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA SO THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN LOOKS FAIRLY GOOD. POPS MAY
SLOWLY RISE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE OVERALL TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM BECOMES BETTER REFINED.

THE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT NOW LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE SO THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE
SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL.                     ..08..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER BY 7 PM TUESDAY...THEN STALLING OVER SOUTHERN IA AND CENTRAL IL
BY MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT WILL BE MARGINAL FOR LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30. IF SURFACE WINDS DIMINISH
MORE THAN EXPECTED OR WINDS ALOFT ARE STRONGER THEN LLWS MAY NEED
TO BE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ESPECIALLY AS IT SLOWS AND STALLS TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD
TO SOME FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34. IF THIS
OCCURS IT WOULD LIKELY TAKE PLACE AFTER THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...DLF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
415 AM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-011000-
BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLARK MO-
CLINTON IA-DELAWARE IA-DES MOINES IA-DUBUQUE IA-HANCOCK IL-
HENDERSON IL-HENRY IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JEFFERSON IA-
JO DAVIESS IL-JOHNSON IA-JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA-
MCDONOUGH IL-MERCER IL-MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-
SCOTLAND MO-SCOTT IA-STEPHENSON IL-VAN BUREN IA-WARREN IL-
WASHINGTON IA-WHITESIDE IL-
415 AM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

FRIDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ENCOUNTERING A WARM AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. A DEEPENING CYCLONE WILL BE TRACKING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
WITH STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WINDS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD ERUPT ALONG THE FRONT WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE
MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

12/HAASE