High Wind in Hawaii, November 11 to 14, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST MON NOV 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOMEWHAT COOL AND DRY AIRMASS IS SETTLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE STATE...WHERE LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO MOUNTAIN
SLOPES. MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL LINGER ON THE
BIG ISLAND AND EAST MAUI TODAY...PRODUCING WET CONDITIONS ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS AND TRIGGERING AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH BRIEF HEAVY
SHOWERS ALONG LEEWARD BIG ISLAND SLOPES. BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL EASE INTO TUESDAY...BECOMING LIGHT BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
SHOWERS WILL PICK UP AGAIN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON A SLOW DECLINE OVER THE NEXT
DAY...AND THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE WINDS ARE BEING
DRIVEN BY AN EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG 1051 MB HIGH CENTERED FAR
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS AND HAVE BEEN ENHANCED LOCALLY BY A
DISSIPATING SHEAR LINE STALLED ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND. THE HIGH IS
SLOWLY WEAKENING...AND THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING AS A
STORM LOW DEVELOPS 1000 MILES NORTH OF THE STATE. AS A RESULT...
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DECLINE TO MODERATE LEVELS LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

WET AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL LINGER ON THE BIG ISLAND
AND EAST MAUI TODAY. SATELLITE DATA SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/
VALUES NEAR 1.7 INCHES OVER THE BIG ISLAND...AND THE OVERNIGHT HILO
SOUNDING SHOWED AMPLE MOISTURE UP TO 12000 FT. EXPECT WET CONDITIONS
ON WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND AND EAST MAUI THROUGH THE
DAY...AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD PRODUCE SPOTTY HEAVY SHOWERS
ACROSS LEEWARD AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THESE ISLANDS. IN
ADDITION...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS ADDED TO THE BIG
ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SUMMIT SNOW
SHOWERS.

COOL AND SOMEWHAT DRY CONDITIONS ARE SETTLING ACROSS THE REST OF
THE STATE...WHERE PW VALUES OF AN INCH OR LESS AND SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE UPPER 50/S ARE FILLING IN FROM THE NORTH. CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN PILED UP ON WINDWARD AND NORTH FACING SLOPES...BUT RAINFALL
WILL BE LIGHT TODAY...WITH ABUNDANT LEEWARD SUNSHINE. FORECAST
MODELS SUGGEST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH.

NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO MODERATE STRENGTH ON TUESDAY AS
THE MOISTURE FROM THE DISSIPATED SHEAR LINE STALLS JUST SOUTHEAST OF
THE BIG ISLAND. SHOWER CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHEST OVER WINDWARD AND
NORTH SLOPES...WITH THE GREATEST RAINFALL CHANCES ON WINDWARD BIG
ISLAND.

WINDS WILL DECREASE FURTHER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK
AS THE SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH DROPS CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS. THE
MAIN FRONTAL BAND IS FORECAST TO STALL TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY
THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN. THIS WILL TAP INTO THE MOISTURE LINGERING JUST
SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND AND DRAW IT BACK OVER THE
ISLANDS. THE BAND MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AS IT SLOWLY
MOVES FROM THE BIG ISLAND UP TO THE CENTRAL ISLANDS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY.
RADAR VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE GENERALLY AROUND 20
KNOTS...ALTHOUGH A PAIR OF ACARS ASCENT SOUNDINGS OUT OF HNL FROM
18Z-19Z THIS MORNING STILL SHOWED 25-30 KT OF WINDS AROUND 2KFT.
WILL LEAN TOWARD THESE STRONGER WINDS FOR NOW AS WE HAVE RECEIVED A
COUPLE MODERATE LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE REPORTS NEAR THE ISLANDS WITHIN
THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. THE AIRMET FOR MODERATE LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE MORNING. IF WE RECEIVE MORE
REPORTS OF TURBULENCE OR STRONGER WINDS WE MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE
AIRMET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE AREA FORECAST ALSO KEEPS A MENTION
OF ISOLATED STRONG WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR AREAS THAT
SEE LOCALIZED FUNNELING/ACCELERATION EFFECTS /SUCH AS AROUND LNY/.

MOISTURE LINGERING NEAR THE BIG ISLAND AND EAST MAUI CONTINUE TO
KEEP MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. CONDITIONS ON MAUI ARE IMPROVING...BUT LOW
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS WINDWARD BIG ISLAND INTO
TONIGHT. LEEWARD BIG ISLAND STARTED THE DAY CLEAR...AND WITH
LINGERING INSTABILITY WE COULD SEE DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND A LARGE NORTH-NORTHEAST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN VERY ROUGH SEAS TODAY...AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS POSTED FOR ALL WATERS FOR A COMBINATION OF
WINDS AND SEAS. LOCAL BUOYS SHOW THAT SEAS ARE SLOWLY DROPPING...AND
WINDS WILL BE ON A SLOW DECLINE. BORDERLINE SCA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY EVENING.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY FOR NORTH AND
EAST FACING SHORES. SURF HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR
SMALLER MORNING CONDITIONS...AND THE ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED
THIS AFTERNOON. THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL SEND ANOTHER LARGE NORTH
SWELL ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH WARNING
LEVEL SURF POSSIBLE.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR NORTH AND EAST FACING
SHORES
OF NIIHAU...KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI...MAUI...AND THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR ALL
HAWAIIAN WATERS-

&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...BRAVENDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1056 AM HST MON NOV 11 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     FLASH FLOOD      NNE HANALEI             22.21N 159.50W
11/09/2013                   KAUAI              HI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            KAUAI CIVIL DEFENSE REPORTED LANE CLOSURE DUE TO PONDING
            WATER ON ROADWAYS IN MALUHIA.

0105 AM     LIGHTNING        LAIE                    21.65N 157.93W
11/10/2013                   HONOLULU           HI   NEWSPAPER

            DOWN UTILITY POLE DUE TO LIGHTNING STRIKE.

1000 PM     HIGH SURF        HILO                    19.70N 155.09W
11/10/2013                   HAWAII             HI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BAYFRONT HIGHWAY CLOSED DUE TO DEBRIS FROM HIGH SURF,
            HIGH TIDE, AND RUNOFF.

&&

HFO