An embedded disturbance in a strong northwest flow aloft produced significant snowfall in the Park and Gore Ranges.
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The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
An embedded disturbance in a strong northwest flow aloft produced significant snowfall in the Park and Gore Ranges.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 11, 3:14 AM MST, 4 hours 46 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 414 AM MDT MON MAR 11 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 414 AM MDT MON MAR 11 2013 HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WAS ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A 120 KT JET DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE RIDING THE JET ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE THIS MORNING CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 700MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES RISE TO 3 G/KG BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH 700 MB FLOW INCREASING TO 25-35 KT FROM THE WEST MAINLY FROM VAIL PASS AND NORTHWARD. THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE ELKHEAD...PARK... GORE AND FLATTOP RANGES BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING. VERY LIMITED DYNAMICAL SUPPORT IS SHOWN IN MODELS THUS SNOWFALL WILL BE DRIVEN MAINLY BY OROGRAPHIC FLOW AND TO A LESSER EXTENT MARGINAL INSTABILITY BELOW THE 600 MB LEVEL. THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED BELOW THE FAVORED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ALONG WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES OF -7/-8C...THUS MODEL QPF OUTPUT OF 0.25-0.35 INCHES WILL LIKELY YIELD 3-5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR VAIL PASS AND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ASPEN AREA WHERE A TRACE TO 1 INCH AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED. SNOWFALL WILL COME TO AN END ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE DECREASES. ELSEWHERE...PERIODS OF HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 DEGREES EACH DAY. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 414 AM MDT MON MAR 11 2013 MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAINED IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. ALL DEPICTED A SHALLOW RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND DOMINATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPS RISING TO LEVELS WELL ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD BEGINS TO APPEAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF MOVES A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY NIGHT THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY PROMISING A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW. A WEAKER DISTURBANCE FOLLOWS SUNDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH RIDGING OVER THE WEST. THE CMC WAS SIMILAR BUT A BIT SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED. IN CONTRAST...THE GFS MAINTAINED THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION WITH A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN TIER STATES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE FLATTENING ON SATURDAY. A LITTLE MOISTURE INDICATED TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN ZONAL FLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY...THE GFS SHOWED A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST PUTTING IT ALMOST 180 DEGREES OUT OF PHASE WITH THE ECMWF. THEREFORE...LIKE LAST NIGHT...WILL HOLD ONTO BLENDED FORECAST OUTPUT GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL MODEL DIFFERENCES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 414 AM MDT MON MAR 11 2013 A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL GENERATE LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BEGINNING AFTER 15Z THIS MORNING. SNOW WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OVER THE ELKHEAD...PARK...GORE AND FLAT TOP MOUNTAINS FROM 19Z TO 06Z RESULTING IN FREQUENT OBSCURATIONS. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE (25 TO 35 PERCENT) THAT KHDN...KSBS...KEGE...AND KASE WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS AND VSBY IN SNOW SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD. SNOW BECOMES MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE AFTER 06Z THOUGH AREAS OF OBSCURATION OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE. ELSEWHERE AROUND THE REGION VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...NONE. UT...NONE. && SHORT TERM...TB LONG TERM...NL AVIATION...NL
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
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.
Snowfall of 5 to 12 inches were measured across the area. Wind gusts ranged from 25 to 50 mph and produced extensive blowing and drifting snow with localized blizzard conditions.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2013Every state in 2013This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, March 2013
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 495227.