Winter Storm in Colorado, February 20 to 21, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1038 AM MST WED FEB 20 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1024 AM MST WED FEB 20 2013

BUSY AFTERNOON EXPECTED WITH SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM NOW MOVING INTO
THE SRN AZ REGION. TRACK HAS TRENDED SOUTH OVER THE PAST DAY OR
TWO...AND THE CURRENT TRACK IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR A WIDESPREAD SNOW
EVENT IN OUR CWA. H7 CIRCULATION IS STILL A BIT TOO ELONGATED AND
NORTH FOR A MAJOR SNOW EVENT ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...BUT
MESOSCALE BANDING IS LIKELY TO HIT PORTIONS OF THE ERN PLAINS AND
ERN MTS FAIRLY HARD. GFS AND NAM ARE REASONABLY CLOSE WITH QPF
TOTALS OVER THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PALMER
DVD...WHERE THE GFS HAS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER SNOW TOTALS. WINDY
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY THU MORNING ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE SOME TRAVEL
IMPACTS. HAVE FILLED IN A FEW MORE ADVISORIES OVER THE
PLAINS...WHERE PRETTY MUCH EVERYONE SHOULD AT LEAST SEE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMS. CENTRAL MTS LOOK ON TRACK WITH HIGH END ADVISORY AMOUNTS.
BIGGEST WINNERS SHOULD BE THE SRN SANGRES AND WETS...WHERE WE HAVE
UPGRADED TO A WARNING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THE HEAVIEST BANDS
OUT EAST STILL A BIT QUESTIONABLE...BUT ERN AND NRN COUNTIES
SHOULD DO BEST...HENCE HAVE UPGRADED TO A WARNING OVER NRN EL PASO
AND FOR ERN AND NRN SECTIONS OF THE PLAINS...ERN KIOWA AND
PROWERS. WITH THIS VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM...SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR A
FEW MORE TWISTS AND TURNS BEFORE THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY ON THURSDAY.
ROSE

.LONG TERM...

(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

...VERY ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE...

...ANOTHER STRONG STORM POSSIBLE SUNDAY...

STRONG STORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST
ONE WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD...AND THE 2ND
WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY.

HEAVY SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE PARTS OF THE PLAINS AT
12Z THURSDAY. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS THE PALMER
DIVIDE AND FAR EASTERN PLAINS...MAINLY FROM KLHX EASTWARD. THIS
HEAVIER SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WINDS WILL BE
AN ISSUE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY BUT I DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE
PERSISTENT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY
BE IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. TRAVEL WILL BE
DIFFICULT AT BEST ACROSS MANY REGIONS OF THE PLAINS AND I-25 FROM
KCOS NWD TO KDEN WILL BE SEVERELY AFFECTED. ALSO 287 OUT EAST WILL
BE SEVERELY AFFECTED...ESPECIALLY FROM KSPD NORTHWARD. US-50 WILL
ALSO BE IMPACTED FROM KLHX EASTWARD TO THE KS BORDER. I SHOULD NOTE
THAT W KANSAS ARE GOING TO RECEIVE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE SNOW THEN THE
SE CO PLAINS...AND TRAVEL INTO W KS MAY BE IMPOSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY.

SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 4 AND 8 INCHES ON THE
PLAINS GENERALLY N OF HIGHWAY 50. NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY AND KIOWA
COUNTY WILL SEE THE BRUNT OF THE HEAVIER SNOW. HOWEVER...SIMULATIONS
ARE SHOWING BANDING FEATURES WITH THIS EVENT...AND WE MAY SEE SOME
LOCALLY NORTH-SOUTH BANDS PRODUCE HEAVIER SNOW ANYWHERE FROM KPUB
EAST TO THE KS BORDER. THE MTNS...ESPECIALLY THE EAST FACE OF THE S
MTNS MAY SEE MORE THAN A FOOT OF SNOW AFTER THIS STORM IS FINISHED.

I NEED TO EMPHASIZE WE ARE DEALING WITH A FAIRLY DYNAMIC STORM
SYSTEM AND THINGS COULD CHANGE WITH THIS EVENT.

A WEAK SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AND THIS WILL BRING SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW TO THE MTNS AND
POSSIBLY THE FAR SE PLAINS.

OUR EYES THEN TURN TO SUNDAY. ANOTHER VERY DYNAMIC STORM IS FCST TO
DROP ACROSS SOUTHEAST FROM W WYOMING INTO E CO ON THIS DAY. IT WILL
THEN RAPIDLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE CO/KS BORDER. WINDS BEHIND THIS
STORM ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG...WITH 700 MB WINDS IN THE 50
TO 70 KNOT RANGE. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY GUST INTO THE 35
TO 45 MPH RANGE. ATTM...THERE WILL BE SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM BUT IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW IF THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY.
WINDS WILL EASILY EXCEED BLIZZARD CRITERIA WITH THIS EVENT...I JUST
AM NOT TOO SURE YET ABOUT THE HEAVY SNOW DOWN HERE IS SE CO. ATTM
MODELS HAVE PRECIP...BUT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP REMAINS IN NE CO AND W
KS. FOR NOW...I HAVE STRONG WINDS ALREADY IN THE NDFD (BUT NOT AS
STRONG AS GUIDANCE) AND I HAVE 20-30 POPS IN THE GRIDDS.

THE NEXT STORM IS FCST TO AFFECT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

THE GOOD NEWS WITH ALL OF THIS WEATHER IS THAT THE PLAINS ARE GOING
TO SEE SOME MUCH NEEDED PRECIP. HOWEVER...THESE STORMS WILL BE HI
IMPACT EVENTS AND PEOPLE NEED TO BE PREPARED. PLEASE MAKE SURE YOU
HAVE WINTER SURVIVAL GEAR IN YOUR CAR...ESPECIALLY IF YOU WILL BE
TRAVELING ON THE PLAINS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS INCLUDES
THE I-25 CORRIDOR.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD...MAX AND MIN TEMP
VALUES ARE GOING TO DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SNOW ACTUALLY FALLS. FOR
NOW TRENDED TEMPS LOWER THAN GUIDANCE/CRH PROCEDURE AS I BELIEVE
QUITE A FEW AREAS ON THE PLAINS WILL HAVE SNOW COVER (ESPECIALLY
FAR E PLAINS AND N EL PASO COUNTY) WHICH WILL CAUSE TEMPS...BOTH MINS
AND MAX VALUES...TO BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE. \/HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1024 AM MST WED FEB 20 2013

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE PERIODS OF IFR FROM SHSN FROM NOW THROUGH
EARLY THU MORNING. COULD SEE PRECIP WIND DOWN OVER KCOS AND KPUB
AS STRONGER N WINDS HIT AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...BUT CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LOW. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO RESULT IN BLOWING AND
DRIFTING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY THU. KALS SHOULD SEE A LITTLE MORE
IMPROVEMENT AFTER 00-03Z THIS EVE...BUT COULD STILL SEE SOME SHSN
THROUGH THU MORNING. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST
THURSDAY FOR COZ084-096-098.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM MST
THURSDAY FOR COZ085-086-089-093>095-097-099.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ074-075-079-
080-082.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ058-060-
066-072-073-076-081.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

SHORT TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...ROSE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1009 AM MST WED FEB 20 2013

COZ058>089-093>099-211715-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1009 AM MST WED FEB 20 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THE STORM WILL THEN
PUSH INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE IN EFFECT TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO.

SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...IS EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. THE
SNOW WILL SHIFT TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TO
THE PLAINS...EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR...TONIGHT.

AT THIS TIME...6 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST
PLAINS COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM ABOUT 3 TO 6 INCHES AS A
GENERALIZATION...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AND LOWER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS ADJACENT TO KANSAS BORDER...INCLUDING
EASTERN KIOWA AND EASTERN PROWERS COUNTIES...COULD SEE 6 TO 10
INCHES OF SNOW. FOR THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...THE WET MOUNTAIN
VALLEY CAN EXPECT AROUND 6 INCHES OF SNOW...WHILE THE SAN LUIS AND
UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEYS CAN EXPECT GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW.

IN ADDITION TO THE ACCUMULATING SNOW...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS LATER TODAY AND THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO TRAVEL ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO TODAY OR
TONIGHT...PLEASE LISTEN TO THE LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS AND
CONSIDER TRAVELING AT ANOTHER TIME OR BY ANOTHER ROUTE. IF YOU
MUST TRAVEL ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO...PLEASE CONSIDER TAKING
ALONG A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.

SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY...WILL LIKELY BE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL BE
ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE AND THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. GUSTY WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
AREAS OF SNOW WILL ALSO BE OCCURRING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

ANOTHER WEAKER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BOTH THE MOUNTAINS
AND PLAINS.

COMPUTER SIMULATIONS SHOW AN INTENSE STORM AFFECTING THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH THAT STRONG WINDS OF 30 TO 45
MPH WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW HOW
MUCH SNOW WILL FALL WITH THIS EVENT...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
LIKELY.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...AND THIS STORM COULD BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW TO ALL OF THE
REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.

50/50

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
743 AM MST WED FEB 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0741 AM     SNOW             ANTONITO                37.08N 106.01W
02/20/2013  E1.0 INCH        CONEJOS            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SNOW BEGAN APPROX. 5AM. STILL FALLING.

&&

PPERALES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1036 AM MST WED FEB 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1020 AM     HEAVY SNOW       5 ESE FORT GARLAND      37.40N 105.35W
02/20/2013  M3.0 INCH        COSTILLA           CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SNOWFALL OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. STILL SNOWING.

&&

MW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1142 AM MST WED FEB 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1141 AM     SNOW             ANTONITO                37.08N 106.01W
02/20/2013  M4.0 INCH        CONEJOS            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AND STILL SNOWING.

&&

PP