High Wind in Alaska, October 17 to 19, 2013

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
159 PM AKDT THU OCT 17 2013

.DISCUSSION...

WET OUT WEST...WINDY IN THE ALASKA RANGE AND A WINTRY MIX ON THE
WESTERN NORTH SLOPE.

...ALOFT THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER EASTERN
ALASKA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. A COMPLEX
SET OF LOWS CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 165 W. THE REMNANTS OF TYPHOON WIPHA
CURRENTLY LOCATED APPROX 350 NM WEST OF KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST TO BE LOCATED 100NM NORTH OF PADK
AS IT HELPS RETROGRADE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH TO NEAR 175 WEST BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST
AND WILL BE LOCATED 100 NM NORTH OF PACD FRIDAY EVENING. SHORT
WAVE MOVING NORTH OVER THE ALASKA RANGE FRIDAY EVENING ALONG THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AID WITH ANOTHER HIGH WIND
WIND EVENT IN THE ALASKA RANGE. THE UPPER LEVEL REMNANTS OF WIPHA
OVER WESTERN BRISTOL BAY WILL TURN NORTH SATURDAY AND MOVE TO NEAR
NUNIVAK ISLAND SATURDAY EVENING AND NEAR ST LAWRENCE ISLAND SUNDAY
EVENING AFTER WHICH TIME THE LOW IS ABSORBED BY A BROAD LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL BERING SEA.

WINDS ALOFT INCREASE OVER THE ALASKA RANGE AS EACH IN A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVE SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ENHANCE MOUNTAIN WAVE EFFECTS. HIGH WIND WARNINGS
HOISTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS TRANSIENT SHORTWAVES WILL BUMP WINDS
OVER CRITERIA FOR A PERIOD AND THEN REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA FOR A
PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP THIS EVENING AND REMAIN
ABOVE CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DROP BELOW
CRITERIA THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN
FRIDAY EVENING AND REMAIN ABOVE CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY.

ON THE SURFACE A 990 MB LOW OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA WILL
WEAKEN TO 995 MB AS IT MOVES NORTH EAST TO BE OVER THE WESTERN
NORTH SLOPE FRIDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE
REMNANTS OF TYPHOON WIPHA WILL BE LOCATED 100 NM NORTH OF PASY
AS A 963 MB LOW FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL BE LOCATED 100 NM NORTH OF
PADU FRIDAY EVENING AS A 966 MB LOW. THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE TO
THE EAST AND WILL BE 200 NM NORTH OF PACD AS A 969 MB LOW BY
SATURDAY MORNING. DEEP AND MOIST FLOW WITH SEMI-TROPICAL ORIGINS AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL PUSH NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN ALASKA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WHILE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR REMAIN
COMPARATIVELY DRY WITH ANOTHER STRONG CHINOOK DEVELOPING. LATEST
MODEL RUNS INDICATE THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL FALL ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST BETWEEN PAYA AND PAVD...HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND OF 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR IS
EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WARM LAYER ALOFT OVER THE
NORTH SLOPE CONTINUES TO CREATE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER NIGHT
OVER THE WESTERN NORTH SLOPE AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALL JUST
BELOW FREEZING.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ225-AKZ226-AKZ227.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ245.
&&

CCC OCT 13