High Wind in Alaska, October 15, 2013

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1253 PM AKDT TUE OCT 15 2013

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN BEGIN TO
DIVERGE WITH DETAILS ON TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE
REMNANTS OF TYPHOON WIPHA AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS FRIDAY MORNING AS A 965 MB LOW AND CURVES NORTHEAST TO
BE LOCATED IN WESTERN BRISTOL BAY SATURDAY MORNING AND NEAR
NUNIVAK ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WARM
WET AND WINDY WEEKEND FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FOR POTENTIAL HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE 1 TO 2 INCHES...AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNT OF RAIN IN THE
YK DELTA AND WESTERN ALASKA RANGE STARTING LATE FRIDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY.

AND UPPER LEVEL IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
NORTHWARD TO BE LOCATED NEAR ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA
AND PUSHES INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH RELOADS
THURSDAY WITH COMPLEX SET OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS DIG SOUTHWARD INTO
THE NORTH PACIFIC WHILE THE RIDGE OVER EASTERN ALASKA HOLDS FIRM.
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH REESTABLISHES FURTHER WEST AS REMNANTS OF
WIPHA EXITS KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND MOVES EAST THROUGH THE
ALEUTIANS.

ON THE SURFACE A 988 MB LOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES NORTH TO BE A 995 MB LOW LOCATED 100 NM SOUTH OF ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD RAINS ON TAP FOR THE
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR AS THE BERING SEA STORM MOVES
NORTH. CHINOOK CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
ALASKA RANGE HOWEVER THERE IS JUST ENOUGH WEST COMPONENT TO THE
WIND FIELDS FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB TO PUSH PRECIP NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE YK DELTA INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR HOWEVER
PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER THAN WILL FALL IN THE
WESTERN INTERIOR AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. PRECIP TYPE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN RAIN ACROSS ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE NORTH SLOPE AND AT
ELEVATION IN THE BROOKS RANGE...THE ALASKA RANGE AND HIGHER TERRAIN
IN THE INTERIOR AS SNOW LEVELS ARE NEAR 6000 FEET IN THE ALASKA RANGE
AND DROP TO AROUND 3000 FEET IN THE BROOKS RANGE WEDNESDAY.

WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE AT ADVISORY LEVELS DESPITE
SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION VS IDEALIZED SOUTH TO NORTH ORIENTATION.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE WESTERN
ALASKA RANGE AND THROUGH NOON IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR.
A SOUTHWEST 50 KT JET AT 850 MB OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR
CONTINUES TO CAUSE BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ON INTERIOR SUMMITS WITH
15 TO 30 MPH WINDS NOTED OVER SUMMITS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
TODAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS JET EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226-AKZ227.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

CCC OCT 13