Rains during the month of October allowed drought conditions to improve across portions of western Wisconsin. Rainfall for the month ranged from 2 to 5 inches across the area allowing for a one to two category improvement in the drought classification.
Every event with a place to put it; 12 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ARX wrote it up.
Rains during the month of October allowed drought conditions to improve across portions of western Wisconsin. Rainfall for the month ranged from 2 to 5 inches across the area allowing for a one to two category improvement in the drought classification. Enough rain was received across Adams, Juneau, Richland and Vernon Counties for them to be removed from the severe drought classification. Before the beneficial rains hit, conditions deteriorated enough for Buffalo and Trempealeau Counties to slip into the severe drought category.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS La Crosse, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 30, 10:24 PM CST, 1 hour 36 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 1124 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY 259 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT. CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING NEAR THE U.S. WEST COAST...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND NORTH DAKOTA...UPPER LOWS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NEW ENGLAND...AND RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. OTHER THAN SOME CIRRUS STREAMING NORTHEAST ACROSS IOWA AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. THIS IS DUE TO PLENTIFUL DRY AIR SEEN ON 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM ABR...MPX AND GRB...WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10C OR MORE EXISTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TROPOSPHERE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS SITUATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SHARP 850MB TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THESE TWO SURFACE FEATURES...NOTED BY 12Z SOUNDING DATA OF 15C AT INL AND MPX COMPARED TO 8C AT GRB. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A SIMILAR SHARP GRADIENT IN CURRENT TEMPERATURES....FROM THE LOWER 80S IN WESTERN MINNESOTA TO THE UPPER 60S IN EASTERN WISCONSIN. TONIGHT AND MONDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING INTO NORTH DAKOTA IS PROGGED TO SPLIT APART INTO TWO BY THE 30.12Z GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN AND ECMWF...WITH PART OF IT HEADING INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND THE OTHER DROPPING SOUTH INTO NEBRASKA BY LATE MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO CREATES SOME ISSUES FOR PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR...SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING GETS SPLIT AROUND THE FORECAST AREA. PLUS THE AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY. ALL FOUR MODELS SUGGEST A DRY FORECAST. THE 30.00Z ECMWF AND 30.12Z NAM ON THE OTHER HAND KEEP MOST OF THE TROUGH TOGETHER....DROPPING IT INTO MN AND IA DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...STRONGER FORCING EXISTS AND A FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE FOLLOWED THE MAJORITY OF THE 30.12Z GUIDANCE AND PULLED OUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENTIRELY. BOTH SCENARIOS STILL HAVE THE COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SLIDE INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH SIMILAR TIMING...SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY MONDAY. AS SUCH...THERE COULD BE SOME SLIGHT COOLING IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE... 850MB TEMPS OF 10-12C AT 18Z MONDAY COMBINED WITH MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. ENOUGH HIGH CLOUDS AND A SOUTHERLY GRADIENT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TONIGHT TO PRECLUDE ANY VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT. THEY SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN WARMER LOWS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. GOING PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS LOOK REASONABLE...WITH THE TYPICAL WISCONSIN COLD SPOTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S DUE TO A LONGER PERIOD OF DECOUPLED WINDS. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE POSSIBLY SPLIT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AS A POTENT UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH INTO MONTANA. AGAIN WHETHER OR NOT PRECIPITATION FALLS MONDAY NIGHT DEPENDS ON HOW SPLIT APART THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS... WITH THE 30.00Z ECMWF DEPICTING A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN COMPARED TO THE 30.12Z NAM/GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN/ECMWF. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW THE DRY MAJORITY AS WELL AS PREVIOUS DRY FORECAST. STILL...AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL REMAIN SEASONABLE MONDAY NIGHT...DESPITE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND 850MB TEMPS ONLY FALLING TO 6-8C BY 12Z TUESDAY. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH RESULTS IN LOWS IN THE 40S. WITH SUN BACK OUT FOR TUESDAY AND THE GIVEN 850MB TEMPS...HIGHS REACHING UP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S SEEM REASONABLE. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE POTENT UPPER TROUGHING DROPPING INTO MONTANA ON TUESDAY IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTHEAST... INTO WYOMING AND PERHAPS THE DAKOTAS AS WELL BY 00Z THURSDAY. AS THIS TROUGH DIGS...IT HELPS TO KICK OUT THE STALLED UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A LOT OF RETROGRESSION THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THIS UPPER LOW...WHICH IS NOW SLATED TO LIFT UP THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY. A DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LOW IS FORECAST BY THE 30.12Z NAM TO PERHAPS CLIP PORTIONS OF GRANT AND ADAMS COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY. THE NAM IS A WESTERN OUTLIER...WITH ALL OTHER MODELS KEEPING THE BAND TRACKING NOT MUCH FARTHER WEST THAN THE CHICAGO AREA. THEREFORE...HAVE DISCOUNTED THE NAM AT THIS TIME...AND WILL FOLLOW THE MAJORITY SHOWING UPPER RIDGING HOLDING OVER THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THE POTENT UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER LOW. SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR UNDER THIS UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY PERIOD. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND IF IT RAINS MONDAY NIGHT...COULD BE A CONCERN FOR VALLEY FOG TUESDAY NIGHT...SINCE A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES LOOK FAIRLY MILD FOR EARLY OCTOBER WITH LOWS STILL IN THE 40S AND 850MB TEMPS OF 10-12C ON WEDNESDAY BOOSTING HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY 259 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012 IN THE MEAN...THE 30.12Z ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES ALL CONTINUE TO FORECAST A BIG CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BY THE WEEKEND...THERE SHOULD BE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF CANADA AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. FALL WILL REALLY BE FELT THIS WEEKEND AS 850MB TEMPS PLUMMET TO BELOW -2C. PLENTY OF DIFFERENCES EXIST ON HOW WE GET TO THE WEEKEND...MOSTLY RELATED TO THAT POTENT TROUGH THE DIGS INTO WYOMING ON WEDNESDAY. THE 30.12Z ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS ALL HAVE THE POTENT TROUGH TURNING NEGATIVE TILT AS IT COMES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HOW FAR NORTHWEST THIS TURN TO NEGATIVE TILT OCCURS AND TIMING IS AT ODDS AMONGST THE MODELS...WITH THE 30.00Z ECMWF/30.12Z CANADIAN FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST THAN THE 30.12Z GFS. THIS HAS MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION AND COLD AIR TIMING. IN THE CASE OF THE 30.00Z ECMWF/30.12Z CANADIAN...THEY ARE MUCH LIGHTER ON PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO THE 30.12Z GFS. NEW 30.12Z ECMWF IS COMPLETELY DRY. FOR NOW...WILL FOLLOW A CONSENSUS APPROACH WITH 20 CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND 30-50 ON THURSDAY. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE 30.12Z ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE MUCH FASTER THAN THE GFS. MUCH COOLER DAY ANTICIPATED ON THURSDAY TOO AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES...SENDING 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO 0-4C BY 00Z FRIDAY. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS LIKELY TOO BEHIND THE FRONT... ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS PANS OUT. MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE 30.00Z/30.12Z ECMWF SHOW SOME FRONTOGENESIS-TYPE LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...NORTH OF A STALLED BOUNDARY FROM KANSAS TO INDIANA. THE 30.12Z GFS/CANADIAN HAVE THIS BOUNDARY MUCH FARTHER SOUTH...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE GENERALLY GOOD PERFORMANCE OF THE ECMWF...NEED TO HAVE AT LEAST SOME 20 PERCENT CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90. ALL MODELS HAVE HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE AREA ON SUNDAY...THUS DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED. && .AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY 1124 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012 THE MAIN FOCUS AT THE TAF SITES WILL BE WITH THE TIMING OF WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING BY DAY BREAK. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY TO 20KTS AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH RST AROUND 14Z AND LSE AROUND 18Z. MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME SPRINKLES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR THOUGH THROUGHOUT WITH THE WIND GUSTS RECEDING MONDAY EVENING. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... 259 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012 WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && SHORT TERM...AJ LONG TERM...AJ AVIATION...HALBACH
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 500 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012 IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034- 041>044-053>055-061-011100- ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-BUFFALO-CHICKASAW-CLARK-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-DODGE- FAYETTE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-GRANT-HOUSTON-HOWARD-JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE- MITCHELL-MONROE-MOWER-OLMSTED-RICHLAND-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-VERNON- WABASHA-WINNESHIEK-WINONA- 500 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA... SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... NO ACTION IS NEEDED. .EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION... NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED. DAS
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
12 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Rainfall amounts across Adams County averaged 4 to 5 inches during October. This was enough rainfall to improve the soil moisture conditions and end the severe drought classification.
Severe drought conditions developed across Buffalo County because of persistent lack of precipitation. Affects of the drought include river flows less than 20 percent of normal on the Mississippi River and deeper than normal ground water levels. Enough rain did fall during the first part of the month for county officials to lift the burning ban.
Rainfall amounts across Clark County averaged 3 to 5 inches during October. This was not enough rain for any change in the drought conditions to occur and all of the county remains in a severe drought. River flows continue to be less than 20 percent of normal along with deeper than normal ground water levels.
Rainfall amounts across Crawford County averaged 3 to 4 inches during October. This was enough rain for some improvement in the drought to occur. By the end of the month, only the far southern portion of the county remained in a severe drought. Improvements over the remainder of the county removed those areas from the severe drought. River flows continue to be less than 20 percent of normal on the Mississippi River along with deeper than normal ground water levels.
Rainfall amounts across Grant County averaged 3 inches during October. This was enough rain for some improvement in the drought to occur. By the end of the month, |the southern half of the county had improved from extreme to severe drought. Improvements over the northern half of the county removed that area from the severe drought. River flows continue to be less than 20 percent of normal on the Mississippi River along with deeper than normal ground water levels.
Rainfall amounts across Jackson County averaged 3 to 4 inches during October. This was enough rain for some improvement in the drought to occur. Early in the month, the extreme drought had expanded to cover much of the county. However, the beneficial rains allowed this to improve and the entire county was classified as being in a severe drought by the end of the month. River flows continue to be less than 20 percent of normal along with deeper than normal ground water levels.
Rainfall amounts across Juneau County averaged 4 to 5 inches during October. This was enough rainfall to improve the soil moisture conditions and end the extreme to severe drought classification.
Rainfall amounts across La Crosse County averaged 3 to 4 inches during October. This was enough rain for some improvement in the drought to occur. By the end of the month, only the northeast corner of the county remained in a severe drought. Improvements over the remainder of the county removed those areas from the severe drought. River flows continue to be less than 20 percent of normal on the Mississippi River along with deeper than normal ground water levels. Crops harvested across the county showed a wide range in yields. Corn ranged from completely barren fields to between 150 and 200 bushels an acre. Soybeans ranged from 20 to 30 bushels an acre on the low end up to 40 to 50 bushels an acre.
Rainfall amounts across Monroe County averaged 3 to 4 inches during October. This was enough rain for some improvement in the drought to occur. Early in the month, the extreme drought had expanded to cover the northern half of the county. However, the beneficial rains allowed this to improve and by the end of the month, only the northwest quarter of the county remained in a severe drought. The improvements over the remainder of the county allowed those areas to be removed from the severe drought classification. River flows continue to be less than 20 percent of normal along with deeper than normal ground water levels.
Rainfall amounts across Richland County averaged 4 inches during October. This was enough rainfall to improve the soil moisture conditions and end the severe drought classification.
Severe drought conditions developed across Tempealeau County because of persistent lack of precipitation. Affects of the drought include river flows less than 20 percent of normal on the Mississippi River and deeper than normal ground water levels. Beans harvested in the southern part of the county showed yields up to 50 bushels an acre. Meanwhile, corn yields were down 20 to 30 bushels an acre from the 2011 harvest.
Rainfall amounts across Vernon County averaged 3 to 4 inches during October. This was enough rainfall to improve the soil moisture conditions and end the severe drought classification.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Wisconsin in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Wisconsin, October 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 413001, 413002, 413003, 413004, 413005, 413006, 413007, 413008, 413009, 413010, 413012, 413013.