Repeated rainfall throughout the month of October continued to ease the drought conditions across central and southeast Illinois. Most locations picked up 4 to 5 inches of rain during the month, which is over 1 inch above normal.
Every event with a place to put it; 8 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ILX wrote it up.
Repeated rainfall throughout the month of October continued to ease the drought conditions across central and southeast Illinois. Most locations picked up 4 to 5 inches of rain during the month, which is over 1 inch above normal. As a result, the entire area was downgraded to the Moderate Drought (D1) category or better by October 31st.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lincoln, IL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 30, 10:43 PM CST, 1 hour 17 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1143 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 906 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012 QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS THROUGH THE NIGHT. A SLOWLY APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PRODUCE THICKENING CLOUD COVER...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THESE INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL AND ONLY EXPECT A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. BAK && .AVIATION... ISSUED 1143 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012 SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CONTINUES TO MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING. THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE A GRADUAL THICKENING/LOWERING OF THE CIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS TERMINALS THROUGH THE 06Z TAF VALID TIME...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE VFR CATEGORY. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z. NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. BAK && .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED 200 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012 RAIN CHANCES TRENDING FURTHER NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH MORE OF A FALL LIKE PATTERN DEVELOPING NEXT WEEKEND. SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACRS THE LOWER 48 WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW AT 500 MB OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...AND A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL BE OUR WEATHER MAKER EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK AS IT SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. NO WEATHER PROBLEMS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING AN ABUNDANT SUPPLY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE THRU MOST OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD SLOWLY NORTHEAST. HIGHEST POPS SOUTH OF I-70 WITH PROGRESSIVELY LOWER POPS AS YOU HEAD NORTH AND WEST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HIGHEST POPS (60-70) CONFINED TO MAINLY SOUTH OF A TAYLORVILLE TO PARIS LINE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH MOSTLY CHANCE-SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST TO THE I-55 CORRIDOR. MAIN STICKING POINT WITH JUST HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL TRACK WILL BE WITH THE INFLUENCE...IF ANY...FROM A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO DRAW THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW FURTHER NORTH. SECONDLY...NOT SEEING ANY UPSTREAM SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO EFFECTIVELY TRACK/KICK THE SYSTEM SHARPLY UP TO THE NNW...SIMILAR TO WHAT THE NAM-WRF SUGGESTS. AS A RESULT...WILL TAKE NOT ONLY A "FLATTER" LOOK TO THE SURFACE LOW TRACK...BUT ALSO A SLOWER MOVEMENT TO THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER THRU MIDWEEK. WITH NO DISTINCT SHORTWAVE TO MOVE THE SYSTEM OUT...IT APPEARS IT MAY ONLY SLOWLY TRACK NNE ACRS THE MIDWEST. AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO WEDNESDAY AND IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HOLD...WE MAY NEED TO EDGE THOSE CHANCES FURTHER NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING TAKING THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES OUT OF OUR AREA. COOLEST TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE ACRS THE FAR NORTH WHERE THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE RATHER THIN...AT LEAST COMPARED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WARMEST HIGHS ACRS THE NORTH ON MONDAY WHERE SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE MAY OCCUR. AFTER THAT... WILL TAKE MORE OF A MAV/MET BLEND ON TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WED AS CLOUD COVER AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME RAIN WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK SOME 4 TO 6 DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PATTERN CHANGE TO TAKE PLACE DURING THIS PERIOD AS A RATHER STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A DEEP TROF TAKING SHAPE IN RESPONSE JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEKEND. JUST HOW QUICKLY THIS WILL BRING FALL LIKE AIR INTO OUR AREA NEXT WEEKEND IS STILL IN QUESTION AS WE ARE SEEING SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SE INTO THE ROCKIES AND ITS AFFECT ON THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEKEND. THE LATEST ECMWF AND UK MODELS SUGGEST A MUCH SLOWER TRANSITION TO COLDER WEATHER WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME OVERRUNNING RAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEFORE THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN...WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH DEEPENING IN THE UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES SOONER AND PUSHING THE POLAR FRONT MUCH FURTHER TO THE EAST AND SOUTH WITH VERY LITTLE INFLUENCE FROM ANY SECONDARY WAVE DROPPING SE INTO THE PLAINS. FOR NOW WILL SIDE WITH THE SLOWER EVOLUTION DISPLAYED BY THE ECMWF AND UK MODELS. BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE POLAR FRONT OFF THE ECMWF...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE MAINLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING WITH RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER WEATHER TO MOVE IN ON FRIDAY. THE SECONDARY WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL INDUCE A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL TRACK EAST AND POSSIBLY BRING SOME RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS FAR OUT WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON TO THE LOW CHANCE POPS FROM ALL BLEND FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY UNTIL MODELS START TO SHOW A LITTLE MORE AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE TEMPERED THE COOL DOWN SOME...AT LEAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH THE ECMWF AND UK SUGGESTING THE REAL PUSH OF CANADIAN AIR WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 300 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012 ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-011200- CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND- DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-FULTON-JASPER-KNOX-LAWRENCE-LOGAN- MACON-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-PEORIA-PIATT- RICHLAND-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-SHELBY-STARK-TAZEWELL-VERMILION- WOODFORD- 300 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. GOETSCH
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
8 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Thanks to beneficial rainfall of around 4 inches, Fulton County was downgraded to the Moderate Drought category (D1) on October 31st. Total damage to the corn crop was estimated at $3.3 million.
Thanks to beneficial rainfall of around 4 inches, Knox County was downgraded to the Moderate Drought category (D1) on October 31st. Total damage to the corn crop was estimated at $2.7 million.
Thanks to beneficial rainfall of around 4 inches, Logan County was downgraded to the Moderate Drought category (D1) on October 31st. Total damage to the corn crop was estimated at $34.2 million.
Thanks to beneficial rainfall of around 4 inches, Marshall County was downgraded to the Moderate Drought category (D1) on October 31st. Total damage to the corn crop was estimated at $21.4 million.
Thanks to beneficial rainfall of around 4 inches, Mason County was downgraded to the Moderate Drought category (D1) on October 31st. Total damage to the corn crop was estimated at $29.8 million.
Thanks to beneficial rainfall of around 4 inches, Peoria County was downgraded to the Moderate Drought category (D1) on October 31st. Total damage to the corn crop was estimated at $34.3 million.
Thanks to beneficial rainfall of around 4 inches, Stark County was downgraded to the Moderate Drought category (D1) on October 31st. Total damage to the corn crop was estimated at $15.9 million.
Thanks to beneficial rainfall of around 4 inches, Tazewell County was downgraded to the Moderate Drought category (D1) on October 31st. Total damage to the corn crop was estimated at $35.9 million.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, October 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 416033, 416034, 416035, 416036, 416037, 416039, 416040, 416041.