Heavy rain caused local flooding and mudslides. A large hole developed in the middle of a road in Cosmopolis.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SEW wrote it up.
Heavy rain caused local flooding and mudslides. A large hole developed in the middle of a road in Cosmopolis. 24 hour rainfall amounts were 2.97 in Hoquiam, 4.09 in Bremerton, and 6 inches at Cushman Dam on the Olympic Peninsula.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Seattle, WA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 18, 9:59 PM PST, 2 hours 1 minute earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
959 PM PST SUN NOV 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS
EVENING BUT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY BUT WILL BE HEAVIEST OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR AND OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CASCADES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY
EVENING. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REACH THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THE STRONG FRONT CROSSED THE COAST AROUND 03Z THIS
EVENING AND AT 05Z WAS HEADED OVER THE N CASCADES. WINDS ON THE
COAST HAVE EASED AND ARE STARTING TO WEAKEN OVER THE N INTERIOR. I
WILL ALLOW THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE N INTERIOR TO EXPIRE AT 06Z
AS PLANNED.
THE NEW 00Z GFS/NAM HANG UP THE FRONT ACROSS SW WA EXTENDING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CASCADES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALLOW WAVES MOVING UP THE FRONT TO BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN TO AREAS UNDER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT
WILL STILL RECEIVE RAIN AT TIMES...BUT IT WILL BE LIGHTER. THE DAY
SHIFT UPPED THE QPF FOR THE SW INTERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE AND
IT LOOKS GOOD COMPARED TO THE NEW 00Z NAM. THIS WAS ENOUGH TO PUSH
THE FORECAST FOR THE CHEHALIS AT DOTY AND THE NEWAUKUM NEAR CHEHALIS
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. A FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS EVENING TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE CASCADES...MAINLY ABOVE 4500 FEET. WITH THE FRONT STALLING
OVER THE SOUTH PART THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT MOUNT RAINIER AND THE
ROAD TO PARADISE. SNOW WILL CONTINUE UP NORTH OVER WASHINGTON PASS
AND MOUNT BAKER BUT IT WILL NOT BE AS HEAVY. WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING
THE LOWER PASSES WILL SEE A MIX OF PRECIPITATION.
THE FRONT WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN CASCADES MONDAY
EVENING AND THEN OUT OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE PACIFIC WITH MOIST SW FLOW
ALOFT OVER W WA. GFS HAS A COUPLE OF WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
REACHING THE AREA...ONE ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY. THESE
WILL BRING A SOME SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA. THE TUESDAY
TROUGH MAY BRING BREEZY OR WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST AND N
INTERIOR. KAM
.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 330 PM AFD...IN GENERAL
THE EURO IS WETTER THAN THE GFS. THE GFS IS BASICALLY DRY ON
THANKSGIVING DAY WHILE THE EURO IS WET...THOUGH THURSDAY MAY BE THE
LEAST WET DAY IN THE EURO. THE GFS THEN HAS A WEAK FRONT MOVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON ON FRIDAY. THE EURO HAS A
SIMILAR SETUP BUT KEEPS A CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE AIMED AT THE
AREA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE TWO MODELS COULD HARDLY BE ANY
MORE DIFFERENT AS THEY PERTAIN TO THE CONSEQUENCES FOR RIVER
FLOODING. HAVE BROAD BRUSHED THE FORECAST WITH HIGH POPS FOR NOW.
BURKE
&&
.HYDROLOGY...EVENING UPDATE...NEW MODELS KEEP THE FRONT STALLED OVER
THE SW INTERIOR AND THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CASCADES THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WAVES MOVING UP THE FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN TO THESE AREAS. NORTH OF THE FRONT RAIN WILL BE LESS. BASED ON
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL OVER THE SW INTERIOR THE NEW RIVER FORECAST
MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE CHEHALIS NEAR DOTY AND THE NEWAUKUM NEAR
CHEHALIS MAY REACH FLOOD STAGE MIDDAY MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING
RESPECTIVELY. A FLOOD WATCH HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR LEWIS
COUNTY. A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CHEHALIS NEAR DOTY MAY BE
FORTHCOMING LATER TONIGHT. THE CHEHALIS AT CENTRALIA MAY COME CLOSE
TO FLOOD STAGE MONDAY EVENING. OF COURSE ALL OF THIS IS STILL
DEPENDENT UPON THE HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING AS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.
THE CHEHALIS NEAR GRAND MOUND ALSO MAY REACH FLOOD STAGE ON
TUESDAY...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH TIME TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
MONDAY MORNING PRECIP BEFORE ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH.
A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SKOKOMISH RIVER NEAR POTLATCH.
BASED ON THE LATEST DATA IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REACH FLOOD STAGE A
LITTLE BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. KAM
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 330 PM AFD...THE SKOKOMISH
RIVER WILL BUMP ALONG NEAR 15.5 FEET THIS EVENING BUT WITH HEAVY
RAIN STARTING AGAIN OVER THE OLYMPICS AND FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY...THE RIVER SHOULD REACH FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT. WILL
ISSUE A FLOOD WARNING. A LULL IN THE RAIN ON TUESDAY MAY ALLOW THE
RIVER TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THEN.
THERE IS A PROBLEM WITH THE SKOKOMISH RIVER FORECAST HYDROGRAPH NOT
REACHING THE AHPS PAGE ON THE WEB. HAVE HAD NO LUCK FIXING THAT. FOR
NOW PLEASE NOTE THE FORECAST HAS SRPW1 REACHING FLOOD STAGE AROUND
10 PM TONIGHT...CRESTING AROUND 16.8 FEET LATE TONIGHT...AND
REMAINING ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH MONDAY.
OTHER WESTERN WASHINGTON RIVERS PROBABLY WILL NOT FLOOD AS A RESULT
OF RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IT IS NOT THE CLASSIC
FLOOD-PRODUCING WEATHER PATTERN. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL ONLY RISE TO
AROUND 5500 FT...AND THERE IS NO INDICATION THAT THE FLOW WILL TAP
INTO DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. HOWEVER A POSSIBILITY OF MINOR
FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR A FEW OF THE MOST FLOOD-PRONE
RIVERS. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON AT LEAST THE SATSOP...
NOOKSACK...AND STILLAGUAMISH RIVERS.
RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN HEAVIER RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL CASCADES
AND THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR WITH LESS OVER THE NORTH CASCADES ON
MONDAY. THIS DEVELOPMENT BEARS WATCHING. THE CHEHALIS RIVER IN
PARTICULAR MAY NEED A FLOOD WATCH IF LATER MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THIS
TREND.
ENOUGH RAIN WILL FALL OVER THE WESTERN WASHINGTON LOWLANDS TONIGHT
AND MONDAY TO POSE A THREAT OF LANDSLIDES...HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
AFTER A LULL TUESDAY...THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES ABOUT TUESDAY
NIGHT. IT APPEARS TO BE FAST MOVING AND SHOULD ONLY BRING 6-12 HOURS
OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE COAST AND OLYMPICS...WHICH SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH
TO CAUSE CONCERN ON AREA RIVERS EXCEPT FOR THE SKOKOMISH. THE
PATTERN REMAINS WET BUT NOT OVERLY SO THROUGH ABOUT FRIDAY. BOTH THE
GFS AND EURO MODELS HAVE AT TIMES SHOWN PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN
OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON NEXT WEEKEND. THE LATEST GFS RUN IS NOT
PARTICULARLY WET WHILE THE EURO IS ABSOLUTELY DRENCHED WITH RAIN. IT
IS WORTH MENTIONING AGAIN THAT WHEN HUGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ARE IN
THE MODELS THEY SEEM TO PERFORM WORSE IN THE DETAILS. BURKE
&&
.AVIATION..A BROAD TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN PAC EXTENDING
INTO THE PAC NW TONIGHT AND MONDAY. STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT OVER WRN
WA. GENERALLY STABLE AND MOIST AT ALL LEVELS. A SERIES OF SURFACE
TROUGHS WILL BRUSH THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN
FRONTAL BAND STALLED ACROSS SW WA NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CASCADES.
GIGS WILL GENERALLY RUN 3-4K FT THROUGH MONDAY...OCCASIONALLY
DROPPING TO 3-5SM AND 2-3K FT CIGS IN HEAVIER RAIN.
KSEA...RAIN WILL PERSIST ALMOST CONTINUOUSLY THROUGH MONDAY. CIGS
AROUND 4K FT THIS EVENING MAY DROP TO 2-3K FT AT TIMES LATER TONIGHT
AND MONDAY AS RAINFALL INTENSITY MAY INCREASE SOMEWHAT. VIS
TEMPORARILY DOWN TO 3-5SM. S WINDS 13-16K W/ GUSTS TO 25-30
KT...SLOWLY EASING LATER TONIGHT. S WINDS 10-13 KT WITH GUSTS TO 22
KT AFTER 12Z MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING NE CROSS S VANCOUVER ISLAND AND
SRN B.C. LATE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO EASE BEHIND
THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT BUT GALES ARE STILL LIKELY OVER MOST WATERS
(EXCEPT PUGET SOUND/CENTRAL STRAIT) AS GRADIENTS WILL BE SLOW TO
RELAX. THE MAIN GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ALONG THE S WA COAST AND ACROSS
THE INLAND WATERS BUT ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BRING A RENEWED BOUT OF STRONGER WINDS TO MOST WATERS. A SMALL
CRAFT FOR WINDS UP TO 30 KT IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE.
THE REST OF THE WEEK OFFERS MORE STORMS IN THIS ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN. SWELLS IN THE COASTAL WATERS REMAIN AROUND 15 FEET WITH
LITTLE IF ANY SUBSIDING DURING THE WEEK. STAY TUNED THIS WEEK AS
DETAILS UNFOLD. BUEHNER/DTM
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HIGH WIND WARNING NORTH INTERIOR.
WINTER STORM WARNING CASCADES.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OLYMPICS.
PZ...GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN
DE FUCA AND THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...AND ADMIRALTY INLET
THROUGH TONIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINING WATERS.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML.The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 heavy rain, 1 debris flow. Local standard time, as filed.
A hole about six foot, by six foot, opened up in the roadway. An SUV plunged front first into the hole and about 4 feet of mud. No one was injured. There was some minor building flooding in Aberdeen.
Mudslides effected the tracks that commuter trains travel between Everett and Seattle. Passenger trains were cancelled for 48 hours.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Washington in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Washington, November 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 421775, 421776.