Flooding in Oregon, November 19 to 21, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
929 AM PST MON NOV 19 2012

.DISCUSSION...THE WIND STORM IS WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH MANY LOCATIONS...EVEN THE TYPICALLY CALM ROGUE VALLEY...GUSTING
TO 35 MPH. CAPE BLANCO HAS THE HIGHEST WIND GUST AT THE
COAST THIS MORNING...REGISTERING 75 MPH A FEW HOURS AGO. COASTAL
WINDS WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE MANY INLAND LOCATIONS WILL
STAY WINDY THROUGH TOMORROW.

SNOW LEVELS ARE HIGH...AT 6000 FEET AND HIGHER AND SHOULD STAY
THAT WAY THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO THE MAIN PRECIPITATION IMPACTS THROUGH
TONIGHT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED AT THE COAST AND JUST
INLAND. A FETCH OF 1.2IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IS POINTED AT
THE COAST. HIGHER RAIN RATES ARE JUST STARTING TO AFFECT THE COAST
AS A FRONT SLOWLY MOVES DOWN THE OREGON SHORELINE. MODEL TRENDS
SUGGEST QPF FOR COOS COUNTY SHOULD BE TRIMMED DOWN SOME...LIKELY
DUE TO SOME DOWNSLOPING FROM CURRY COUNTY TERRAIN AS THE VERY
STRONG SOUTH TO NORTH FLOW CONTINUES. THEREFORE...WILL LIKELY BE
TRIMMING DOWN EXPECTED RAINFALL FOR COOS COUNTY BUT WILL KEEP VERY
HIGH AMOUNTS OVER CURRY COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND A STRONG FRONT OFFSHORE WILL RESULT
IN PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO PLENTY OF MODERATE AND POSSIBLY SEVERE TURBULENCE FOR
INCOMING AND OUTGOING FLIGHTS FOR ALL TAF SITES AND LOCATIONS IN BETWEEN.
A PIREP NEAR ROSEBURG ALREADY REPORTED SEVERE TURBULENCE THIS
MORNING...AND WINDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING. SOME
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AT ROSEBURG...SO WILL KEEP LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN FOR THEM. FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD,
MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME TOTALLY OBSCURED THIS EVENING AND REMAIN
THAT WAY THROUGH MONDAY. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST...JUST INLAND...AND IN THE VICINITY OF MOUNT SHASTA WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY VFR
AT KMFR AND EAST OF THE CASCADES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM PST MON NOV 19 2012/

DISCUSSION...AN UNUSUALLY WINDY AND EXTRAORDINARILY WET STORM IS
BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE REGION AND WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MAJOR CONCERNS INCLUDE HIGH SURF,
HIGH WINDS, LANDSLIDES, AND FLOODING.

PEAK WINDS SO FAR HAVE INCLUDED GUSTS OF 79 MPH AT NEWPORT AND 68 MPH
AT BOTH CAPE ARAGO AND CAPE BLANCO. IT IS RELATIVELY COMMON FOR A
STORM TO BRING HIGH WINDS TO THE COASTAL HEADLANDS...SOUTHERN
SHASTA VALLEY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE COUNTY. BUT, WINDS
WILL BE UNUSUALLY STRONG IN THOSE AREAS AND ALSO BECOME STRONG
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA INCLUDING THE COASTAL COUNTIES
AND INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN STRONG THIS EVENING. THUS, CONFIDENCE IS VERY
HIGH THAT HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS TO 90 MPH WILL DEVELOP AT THE
COAST. I HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE CASCADES
AND SISKIYOUS, SHASTA VALLEY, AND LAKE COUNTY INTO TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL NOT DECREASE
VERY MUCH UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL AT THE COAST OVERNIGHT WAS MAINLY LIGHT BUT THAT IS ABOUT
TO DRAMATICALLY CHANGE. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, 5 TO 11 INCHES OF
RAIN IS FORECAST FOR THE COAST WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF CURRY COUNTY. 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE FORECAST FOR DOUGLAS,
JOSEPHINE AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTIES. LANDSLIDES AND FLOODING
OF CREEKS, STREAMS AND STREETS ARE POSSIBLE IN ALL OF THOSE AREAS.
ALSO...A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COQUILLE
RIVER IN COOS COUNTY. PLEASE MONITOR OUR HOME PAGE FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES. ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING THE ROGUE, SHASTA AND KLAMATH
VALLEYS...RAINFALL BETWEEN A HALF AN INCH AND TWO INCHES IS
EXPECTED THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MODEL QPF FIELDS
DO HAVE SOME POTENTIALLY IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF THE HEAVY RAIN. BUT THEY ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN HEADED INTO CURRY COUNTY AND THE MOST
TORRENTIAL TIME FRAME AS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST TONIGHT THEN
REACH THE EAST SIDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. A SILVER LINING
FOR SOME TRAVELERS IS THAT THIS VERY STRONG STORM IS SO WARM. THE
SNOW LEVEL WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE MAJOR HIGHWAY PASSES INTO
TUESDAY EVENING.

ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE SNOW LEVEL DROPPING TO AROUND 4500 TO 5000
FEET.

THE GFS, NAM AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE ALL TRENDED STRONGER WITH
RIDGING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A DRY THANKSGIVING THOUGH WITH PATCHES OR AREAS OF MORNING AND
NIGHT VALLEY FOG. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED BUT TIMING IS VERY UNCERTAIN. THE GFS HAS ITS USUAL BIAS
OF BEING QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF, AND IT IS WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF.
BUT EACH DOES BRING IN A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS
TIMING WOULD BE FOCUSED ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING WHILE THE
ECMWF FOCUS IS ON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COOLING TREND
IS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PERHAPS A WEAK TROUGH OR TWO IN A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF LIGHT
COASTAL RAIN.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST TUESDAY FOR ORZ030-031.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ORZ030-031.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ021>024.
     HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST TUESDAY FOR ORZ021-022.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ORZ021-022.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST TUESDAY FOR ORZ027-028.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ORZ023-025-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ORZ024.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ORZ029.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST TUESDAY FOR CAZ083.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ084.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ082.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST TUESDAY FOR CAZ081.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CAZ081.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ085.

PZ...STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST TUESDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.

SK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
907 AM PST MON NOV 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG GOLD BEACH              42.41N 124.42W
11/18/2012                   CURRY              OR   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREES DOWN ACROSS HIGHWAY 101 NEAR MILEPOST 326. ROAD
            REMAINED CLOSED UNTIL ABOUT 10 PM.

0500 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG DIAMOND LAKE            43.18N 122.14W
11/19/2012                   DOUGLAS            OR   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREES DOWN NEAR HIGHWAY 138 AND 230 INTERCHANGE.

&&

WRIGHT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1138 AM PST MON NOV 19 2012

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG PHOENIX                 42.27N 122.82W
11/19/2012                   JACKSON            OR   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE LIMB SNAPPED AND PORCH DOORS
            BLOWN OFF.

&&

IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1208 PM PST MON NOV 19 2012

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1205 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST SILVER LAKE             43.13N 121.05W
11/19/2012  0 MPH            LAKE               OR   PUBLIC

            SUSTAINED WINDS 65MPH WITH GUSTS ESTIMATED
            NEAR 80MPH. PIECES OF WOOD BLOWING OFF WOOD
            PILE.

&&

IRIS SYSTEM