5 inches in northern Jim Hogg County and 3 to more than 5 inches across northern Zapata County on September 28th improved drought one category - D4 (Exceptional) to D3 (Extreme) or D3 to D2 (Severe) across portions of these counties to begin October. The levels would remain steady for the remainder of the month.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BRO wrote it up.
Torrential rainfall, estimated at 1 to 2.5 inches in northern Jim Hogg County and 3 to more than 5 inches across northern Zapata County on September 28th improved drought one category - D4 (Exceptional) to D3 (Extreme) or D3 to D2 (Severe) across portions of these counties to begin October. The levels would remain steady for the remainder of the month.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Brownsville, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 30, 11:44 PM CST, 16 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 1244 AM CDT MON OCT 1 2012 .DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS RESULTING IN LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012/ DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE STORM SYSTEM THAT SWEPT THROUGH YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION. FOR MONDAY...EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE IN AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MOSTLY FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 136 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH DEEP DRY AIR FILTERING BEHIND IT INTO THE TEXAS REGION. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW OVER LOUISIANA CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST KEEPING THE CWA UNDER A TIGHT GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR NW WINDS TO REMAIN BREEZE TO WINDY THE REST OF TODAY. AS THIS SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND EXITS THE REGION...THE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN REDUCING TO LIGHTER NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT A CLEAR NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CWA WITH A COASTAL COUNTIES AND ALONG THE WESTERN BORDER REACHING THE 70S. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH OUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO MONDAY BUT LIGHTER COMPARED TO TODAY AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR HIGH AND LOW TEMPS AND WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK PERTURBATION WILL MOVE SOUTH WITHIN THIS TROUGH ENHANCING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE MONDAY EVENING. GFS AND ECMWF ARE HINTING ON A CHANCE OF CONVECTION ACTIVITY FOR THE LATE MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD. GFS BRINGS A BAND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE VALLEY AS WELL AS ECMWF BUT THE ECMWF SEEMS TO KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTION OVER SOUTH OF THE WESTERN BORDER. INCLUDED A 10 PERCENT AT THIS TIME FOR THE WESTERN PORTION INCLUDING ZAPATA...JIM HOGG AND PARTS OF STARR COUNTY AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT TOO HIGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND LOW TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 60S. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...WHILE A MATURE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES TUESDAY...THE BASE OF THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. AN EMBEDDED WAVE WILL MOVE DOWN AND AROUND TROUGH BASE AND OVER THE CWA...WITH ENOUGH ENERGY TO MERIT AN INTRODUCTION OF SILENT TEN ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE DAY TUESDAY. ONCE THIS PULSE OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH...WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE OVERHEAD AND UPSTREAM AS THE MAIN TROUGH SHIFTS EAST...AND MORE DRY AIR WILL ARRIVE...EVEN AS SURFACE WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE NEXT NORTHERN PLAINS MID LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL DIG SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AROUND MID WEEK AND WILL MOVE SOUTH WHILE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ENJOYS SEASONAL WEATHER. THE SYSTEM WILL START TO WASH OUT OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AS IT LOSES UPPER SUPPORT...AND A WEAK WIND SHIFT TO NORTHEAST OR EAST ON FRIDAY MAY BE ALL OF THE FRONT THAT ULTIMATELY MAKES IT. THOSE WINDS WILL BE QUICK TO RETURN TO SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANOTHER FOLLOW-UP SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MAY HAVE BETTER LUCK...AND WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO EAST TEXAS ON SATURDAY. THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED IN THE CWA ON SUNDAY...AND MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE MEAGER. MARINE... TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...LATEST MARINE CONDITIONS INDICATE SCA ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS WITH 5 TO 6 FEET SEAS AND NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 28 KNOTS. THIS NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVES FURTHER EAST. EXPECT LIGHTER NW WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SEAS GRADUALLY LOWER BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET. DO NOT EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A POSITIVE TILT H5 TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY WITH ITS BASE ROUGHLY OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE DOWN AND AROUND THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH... POSSIBLY SPARKING SOME SHOWERS OVER THE MARINE AREAS. LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ON TAP OTHERWISE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BETWEEN SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...AS PLAINS LOW PRESSURE REPLACES HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL SHIFT EAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCEC TO BORDERLINE SCA CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE. PLAINS LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY FILL THOUGH...ENDING THE BRIEF INTERLUDE OF POORER MARINE CONDITIONS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL BE BACK THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 71 88 72 88 / 0 10 10 0 BROWNSVILLE 72 88 72 91 / 0 10 10 0 HARLINGEN 69 89 70 91 / 0 10 10 0 MCALLEN 68 90 70 91 / 0 10 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 69 89 70 91 / 10 10 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 87 76 87 / 0 10 10 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV 63
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 647 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012 TXZ248>257-011200- ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY- INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON- 647 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND AT BOCA CHICA BEACH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED AT THE LOCAL BEACHES MONDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-011200- LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO- LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TX- LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX- COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM- 647 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE LAGUNA MADRE. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES TO BE IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS EAST OF PADRE ISLAND FROM 0 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE THROUGH THIS EVENING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Prior to 1 to 2.5 inches of estimated rainfall filtering into the Drought Monitor on October 2nd, conditions in Jim Hogg County remained Extreme (D3) except Exceptional (D4) across the northeast corner of the County along State Highway 285.
Prior to 3 to more than 5 inches of estimated rainfall across northern Zapata County filtering into the Drought Monitor on October 2nd, conditions in Zapata County remained Extreme (D3) for all but the southern quarter of county, which had Severe (D2) conditions.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, October 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 418125, 418126.