Texas, 2012

Drought in Texas, October 1 to 31, 2012

October 1 to 31, 2012 · NWS BRO · 10 events in 10 counties and zones

October was a month dominated by hot and breezy weather, punctuated by teases of fronts, the first around Columbus Day. A persistent ridge of high pressure that typically settles across northern Mexico from mid to late summer held firm through October before being nudged into the Pacific near Baja California.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 8 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
10

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS BRO wrote it up.

October was a month dominated by hot and breezy weather, punctuated by teases of fronts, the first around Columbus Day. A persistent ridge of high pressure that typically settles across northern Mexico from mid to late summer held firm through October before being nudged into the Pacific near Baja California. This ridge kept significant fronts from moving very far south into Texas, while maintaining unseasonably warm temperatures and mainly dry conditions across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley the first two weeks of the month. The first teaser cold front moved across the region on Columbus Day and provided welcome rain across coastal sections of Willacy and Cameron counties, with nearly 2 inches (1.94 inches) falling at the Cameron County Airport, near Bayview. The area generally west of Highway 281 recorded little to no rainfall during those weeks and average temperatures continued above normal.

Improvements in Drought - by one category - appeared across the Rio Grande Plains/Ranchlands of Jim Hogg and Zapata County by the 2nd, courtesy of very heavy rains just before the end of September. These improvements would hold through October before worsening in November. Other slight improvements would appear near the Lower Valley Coast, courtesy of torrential rains on the 7th, 12th/13th, and 18th.

The areas generally west of Highway 281 recorded little or no rainfall. Most locations would finish among the top 10 driest. Unseasonably warm temperatures continued through the month of October across Deep South Texas. October 18th was the hottest October day all time across many locations across the Rio Grande Valley; high temperatures away from the coast soared above 100, including a blistering 108 at La Joya. Temperatures lowered into the upper 80s to lower 90s on the 19th, but quickly recovered back into the 90s in all areas until the 25th. Much cooler temperatures were felt on the 26th as the first significant cold front of the season made its way through Deep South Texas. The cold front allowed temperatures to drop to below to near normal, but did nothing to improve the drought on a large scale basis.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Brownsville, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 30, 11:44 PM CST, 16 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 30, 11:44 PM CST, 16 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1244 AM CDT MON OCT 1 2012

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS RESULTING IN LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE DECREASE THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE STORM SYSTEM THAT SWEPT
THROUGH YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION. FOR
MONDAY...EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE IN AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MOSTLY
FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 136 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NE
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH DEEP DRY
AIR FILTERING BEHIND IT INTO THE TEXAS REGION. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW OVER LOUISIANA CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST KEEPING THE CWA UNDER A TIGHT GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR NW WINDS TO REMAIN BREEZE TO WINDY THE REST OF TODAY.
AS THIS SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND EXITS THE REGION...THE
GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN REDUCING TO LIGHTER NORTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT A CLEAR NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CWA WITH A COASTAL COUNTIES AND ALONG
THE WESTERN BORDER REACHING THE 70S. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
THROUGH OUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO MONDAY BUT LIGHTER COMPARED TO TODAY
AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR HIGH
AND LOW TEMPS AND WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO THROUGH MONDAY. A
WEAK PERTURBATION WILL MOVE SOUTH WITHIN THIS TROUGH ENHANCING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE MONDAY
EVENING. GFS AND ECMWF ARE HINTING ON A CHANCE OF CONVECTION
ACTIVITY FOR THE LATE MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD. GFS BRINGS A BAND FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE VALLEY AS WELL AS ECMWF BUT THE ECMWF
SEEMS TO KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTION OVER SOUTH OF THE WESTERN
BORDER. INCLUDED A 10 PERCENT AT THIS TIME FOR THE WESTERN PORTION
INCLUDING ZAPATA...JIM HOGG AND PARTS OF STARR COUNTY AS CONFIDENCE
IS NOT TOO HIGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL MONDAY AND LOW TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...WHILE A MATURE SURFACE LOW
AND FRONT WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES TUESDAY...THE
BASE OF THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST OVER
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. AN EMBEDDED WAVE WILL
MOVE DOWN AND AROUND TROUGH BASE AND OVER THE CWA...WITH ENOUGH
ENERGY TO MERIT AN INTRODUCTION OF SILENT TEN ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR
THE DAY TUESDAY. ONCE THIS PULSE OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH...WEAK MID
LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE OVERHEAD AND UPSTREAM AS THE MAIN TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST...AND MORE DRY AIR WILL ARRIVE...EVEN AS SURFACE WINDS
BEGIN TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE NEXT NORTHERN
PLAINS MID LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL DIG SOUTH OUT OF CANADA
AROUND MID WEEK AND WILL MOVE SOUTH WHILE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ENJOYS
SEASONAL WEATHER. THE SYSTEM WILL START TO WASH OUT OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS AS IT LOSES UPPER SUPPORT...AND A WEAK WIND SHIFT TO NORTHEAST
OR EAST ON FRIDAY MAY BE ALL OF THE FRONT THAT ULTIMATELY MAKES IT.
THOSE WINDS WILL BE QUICK TO RETURN TO SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADS OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANOTHER
FOLLOW-UP SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MAY HAVE BETTER LUCK...AND WILL
PUSH SOUTH INTO EAST TEXAS ON SATURDAY. THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED IN
THE CWA ON SUNDAY...AND MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH
UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE MEAGER.

MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...LATEST MARINE CONDITIONS INDICATE
SCA ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS WITH 5 TO 6
FEET SEAS AND NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP
TO 28 KNOTS. THIS NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVES FURTHER EAST.
EXPECT LIGHTER NW WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SEAS GRADUALLY LOWER
BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET. DO NOT EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A POSITIVE TILT H5 TROUGH WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWEST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY WITH ITS BASE ROUGHLY OVER
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE DOWN AND AROUND THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH...
POSSIBLY SPARKING SOME SHOWERS OVER THE MARINE AREAS. LIGHT WINDS
AND LOW SEAS ON TAP OTHERWISE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BETWEEN SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...AS PLAINS LOW PRESSURE REPLACES
HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL SHIFT EAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
TIGHT ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCEC TO BORDERLINE SCA CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE. PLAINS LOW PRESSURE
WILL RAPIDLY FILL THOUGH...ENDING THE BRIEF INTERLUDE OF POORER
MARINE CONDITIONS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW SEAS
WILL BE BACK THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  71  88  72  88 /   0  10  10   0
BROWNSVILLE          72  88  72  91 /   0  10  10   0
HARLINGEN            69  89  70  91 /   0  10  10   0
MCALLEN              68  90  70  91 /   0  10  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      69  89  70  91 /  10  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  87  76  87 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63
Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 30, 5:47 AM CST, 18 hours 13 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
647 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

TXZ248>257-011200-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
647 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF SOUTH
PADRE ISLAND AND AT BOCA CHICA BEACH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED AT THE LOCAL
BEACHES MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-011200-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
647 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES TO BE IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF
MEXICO WATERS EAST OF PADRE ISLAND FROM 0 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES
OFFSHORE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

10 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Starr

When
October 1, 12:00 AM CST to October 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Starr forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
26.562, -98.738 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Welcome rains at the end of September across the ranches of northeast Starr County helped nudge the area of Extreme (D3) drought into the southeast corner of the county. Otherwise, with little or no rain across Starr County during October, the southeast corner of the county remained in Extreme (D3) drought conditions, while the NE portion of the county dipped to Severe (D2) drought on the 2nd and remained there. The western half of the county remained in less severe drought conditions, with the northwest corner of the county in Moderate (D1) drought conditions and the southwest corner, which remained in decent shape after some rain through the summer, in abnormally dry conditions.

Drought, Brooks

When
October 1, 12:00 AM CST to October 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Brooks forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
27.032, -98.219 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Isolated showers on the 12th dropped 0.50 inches of rain in Falfurrias, and allowed for a temporary respite from the overall dry conditions of October. A majority of the county received little or no rainfall. The limited precipitation did little to alleviate the drought conditions across the County. The great majority of the county remained entrenched in Exceptional (D4) drought conditions, while the far SW corner of the county remained in Extreme (D3) drought conditions.

Drought, Hidalgo

When
October 1, 12:00 AM CST to October 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Hidalgo forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
26.397, -98.181 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Isolated showers and thunderstorms provided spotty rain fall across Hidalgo county during October, and was no match for the 2012 Drought. Rain fall amounts ranged from nothing at all to a little more than half an inch in Mercedes on the 13th. Scattered thunderstorms on the 18th in eastern Hidalgo County provided virtually no relief, as dry and hot weather quickly evaporated any rainfall before the water could soak into parched soil. All of the county except for the NE corner remained deeply entrenched in Extreme (D3) drought conditions. Exceptional (D4) drought conditions remained ever present in the NE corner of the county.

Drought, Cameron

When
October 1, 12:00 AM CST to October 8, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Cameron forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
26.152, -97.453 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Portions of Cameron County received rainfall during the first half of the month. Several days of seabreeze convection combined with the first cold front of the month resulted in precipitation totals of 0.15 inches in Harlingen at the Rio Grande Valley International Airport and 0.21 inches in Brownsville at the Brownsville/ South Padre Island International Airport. Heavier rainfall, in excess of two inches on the 7th and 12th across the eastern third of the county, allowed drought conditions to improve from Extreme (D3) drought conditions to Severe (D2) drought conditions across the eastern half of the county. The western two thirds of the county remained in Extreme (D3) drought conditions.

Drought, Coastal Cameron

When
October 1, 12:00 AM CST to October 8, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Coastal Cameron forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor

Coastal Cameron County received significant rainfall during the first half of the month, thanks to seabreeze convection and a cold front. Almost 2 inches of rain (1.94) fell at the Cameron County Airport in Bayview on October 7th. This was followed by more rain on the 12th and 13th totaling almost another inch (.91 inches). This rain allowed Coastal Cameron County to experience overall improvement in drought conditions, as the area went from Extreme (D3) drought conditions to Severe (D2) drought conditions beginning on the 9th.

Drought, Willacy

When
October 1, 12:00 AM CST to October 22, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Willacy forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
26.477, -97.592 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Isolated showers fell across Willacy County during the first third of the month, with Raymondville receiving 0.15 inches of rain. A band of heavy thunderstorms on the 7th largely missed Willacy County and slammed eastern Cameron; some drought relieving rains wouldn't arrive in the county until October 18th. Drought conditions did not improve for the area and remained at Extreme (D3) levels.

Drought, Coastal Willacy

When
October 1, 12:00 AM CST to October 22, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Coastal Willacy forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor

Isolated showers and thunderstorms dropped spotty rain across Coastal Willacy County during the first half of the month. Port Mansfield recorded 0.12 inches of rain during the first half of the month, while areas just south of the Cameron/Willacy County line toward the coast saw greater amounts, as was evidenced by the almost 2 inches of rain that fell in Bayview. The spotty rainfall through the first 17 days of the month kept Coastal Willacy County mired in Extreme (D3) drought, with a slight improvement to D2 (Severe) just north of the Cameron/Willacy line along the Laguna Madre.

Drought, Kenedy

When
October 1, 12:00 AM CST to October 30, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Kenedy forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
26.928, -97.636 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Isolated showers and thunderstorms did little to alleviate the drought conditions across Kenedy County; a co-op site in Sarita recorded 0.07 inches of rain on the 13th. All of the county remained in Extreme (D3) drought conditions, except for a sliver of Exceptional (D4) drought conditions along the far western county boundary. Conditions would worsen across more of the county just before month's end.

Drought, Zapata

When
October 2, 12:00 AM CST to October 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Zapata forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
27.001, -99.169 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Little to no rain fell across Zapata County during October. This combined with above normal temperatures allowed the vast majority of the the county to remain in Severe (D2) drought conditions. The far NW corner of the county remained in moderate (D1) drought conditions.

Drought, Jim Hogg

When
October 2, 12:00 AM CST to October 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Jim Hogg forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
27.043, -98.697 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Isolated showers on the 11th were a welcome relief after a generally dry start to the month. Rain fall was spotty and light across Jim Hogg county thereafter, with Hebbronville recording 0.24 inches of rain. However, this rainfall did little to alleviate drought conditions across Jim Hogg County. The county remained split in half, the southwest half of the county in Severe (D2) drought conditions, while the northeast half of the county remained in Extreme ( D3) drought conditions.

What these are

Drought
A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Texas in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, October 2012

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 416514, 416516, 416517, 416519, 416523, 416524, 416525, 416527, 416513, 416515.