High Wind and Winter Weather in Texas, March 8, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
530 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE AT BOTH KLBB AND KCDS
TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS
BY TONIGHT. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH ON EXACTLY WHERE CLOUD
CEILINGS WILL SET UP THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO EXPECT TO SEE STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST UNDER AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING CRITERIA.

KCDS HAS A PRETTY GOOD SHOT OF SEEING PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
DAY AS WELL...HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH/CONFIDENCE LOW FOR
PRECIPITATION AT KLBB. ANY PRECIPITATION COULD CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW BY TONIGHT AT KLBB WHICH WILL BEAR WATCHING WHILE
TEMPERATURES AT KCDS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THIS TAF
CYCLE.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT PRETTY MUCH CUTS THE FORECAST AREA IN HALF FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AS OF 3 AM CST THIS MORNING...OR GENERALLY ALONG A
MORTON...LUBBOCK...TO PADUCAH LINE.  THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS BY SUNRISE BUT WILL QUICKLY
PUSH OUT OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER THAT.  ALREADY STARTING TO SEE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CAPROCK...AND EXPECT THIS
REGION TO CONTINUE TO SEE THE MOST ACTIVITY AS DEEPER MOISTURE
RESIDES ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  LIFT ALONG
AND OVER THE FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS/STORMS GOING THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS.  HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL HAVE LIKELY BEEN
HIT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A SLOW DROP THROUGH THE DAY THANKS TO
AMPLE LOW CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION
THROUGH THE DAY.  NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO HOVER NEAR WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN JUST UNDERNEATH THIS.

CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW
APPROACHES...THEN STALLS JUST WEST OF THE STATE LINE PLACING THE
REGION UNDER WEAKLY DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.  THIS WILL FAVOR WEAK
SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL LIKELY HELP VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.  AS TEMPERATURES START TO COOL THROUGH THE COLUMN...
PROFILES WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO TRANSITION FROM ALL LIQUID...TO A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW...THEN TO ALL SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CAPROCK.  ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA MAY SEE UP TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH BY THE TIME ALL
IS SAID AND DONE. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS HEADING INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS SHOULD REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING SO PRECIPITATION IN
THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IN A LIQUID FORM.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE PLAGUED
BY THE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW...AND
THUS UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES /INCLUDING WINTRY
PRECIPITATION/.

ALREADY STARTING OFF AT 12Z FRIDAY THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
SPREAD BETWEEN THE VARIOUS WEATHER MODELS...WITH THE UPPER LOW
PROGGED TO BE CENTERED ANYWHERE FROM THE AZ/NM BORDER ON THE WEST
SIDE TO NEAR CLOVIS ON THE EAST SIDE. INTERESTINGLY...BOTH THE 00Z
GFS AND NAM FAVOR THE EASTERN MORE SOLUTIONS. IN THIS SCENARIO...THE
LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ON SATURDAY EFFECTIVELY DRY SLOTTING THE FA
EVEN THROUGH A SECONDARY VORT MAX DOES DEVELOP WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE INITIAL LOW AND SWING OUT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE WEEKEND.
OTHER GUIDANCE MAINTAIN A SINGLE CLOSED LOW MORE TOWARD CENTRAL NM
EARLY FRIDAY...WITH THE LOW RETROGRADING TO OR BEYOND THE AZ/NM
BORDER /PERHAPS EVEN DIPPING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MEXICAN BORDER/
BEFORE LIFTING BACK EASTWARD LATE SATURDAY AND ACROSS WEST TEXAS
SUNDAY. OBVIOUSLY...THIS SECOND SCENARIO WOULD KEEP AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND PERHAPS EVEN LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES
INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN LITTLE STEERING FLOW WITH THE REX BLOCK
PATTERN...IT IS TOUGH TO SAY EXACTLY WHICH SCENARIO WILL COME TO
FRUITION...THOUGH WOULD NOT EXPECT THE LOW TO GO VERY FAR VERY
FAST. AS HPC SAID...ALL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE POSITION OF THE
LOW APPEAR EQUALLY PLAUSIBLE AT THIS JUNCTURE. HENCE...HAVE
DECIDED NOT TO STRAY FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST WHICH DOES SIDE
MORE TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION...DRYING OUT THINGS
LOCALLY BY THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY BY FUTURE SHIFTS.

THAT SAID...WITH THE LOW SOMEWHERE TO OUR WEST ON FRIDAY...SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS REMAIN VALID. IF THE NORTHERN/FASTER SOLUTIONS
PAN OUT...THE BEST MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE /AND BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES/ WOULD BE CONFINED TO OUR EASTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY.
HOWEVER...IF THE LOW IS INDEED FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THE BETTER
UPGLIDE WOULD BE POSITIONED MORE SQUARELY ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN
THIS...DID DECIDE TO INCREASE POPS TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY OVER
ALL BUT THE SOUTHWEST ZONES ON FRIDAY. OTHER CHALLENGE IS PRECIP
TYPE...AS THE COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY.
ATTM...IT APPEARS LOCATIONS ON THE CAPROCK WOULD LIKELY BE ALL
SNOW EARLY...WITH A MIX FURTHER EAST...WITH PERHAPS SOME WESTWARD
DRIFT OF THE RAIN/SNOW/MIX LINE THROUGH THE DAY...IF PRECIPITATION
RATES ARE LIGHT /AS CURRENTLY EXPECTED/. FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AREAWIDE WITH NO NOTABLE PROGRESSION
IN THE RAIN/SNOW/MIX LINE...AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN RATHER
STEADY. HOWEVER...IF PRECIPITATION RATES ARE GREATER THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...DYNAMIC COOLING COULD CAUSE THIS TO VARY.

BY LATE WEEKEND AN APPRECIABLE WARMING TREND SHOULD ENSUE AS DRIER
AIR ADVANCES IN FROM THE WEST AND THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS GENERAL PATTERN SHOULD
MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH WARM AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT IMPROVED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY EVENTUALLY BE CARRIED THIS WAY TOWARD TUE/WED. IN ADDITION TO
LIMITING LOW TEMPERATURES...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN THE
MEDIUM RANGE NWP THAT AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD
HELP SPARK SOME CONVECTION IN OR NEAR THE AREA BY NEXT WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS AT THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST
DOMAIN...THOUGH HAVE KEPT SILENT FOR NOW...AWAITING FUTURE
SUPPORT/CONFIRMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        33  29  36  24  51 /  40  30  30  20  10
TULIA         37  30  38  27  52 /  40  30  30  20  10
PLAINVIEW     39  30  39  28  55 /  30  20  30  20  10
LEVELLAND     40  29  41  29  57 /  20  20  30  20  10
LUBBOCK       45  30  41  29  56 /  20  20  30  20  10
DENVER CITY   37  29  44  28  56 /  10  20  20  20  10
BROWNFIELD    40  29  43  30  56 /  10  20  30  20  10
CHILDRESS     45  34  40  32  52 /  40  40  30  20  10
SPUR          52  34  42  30  58 /  30  30  30  20  10
ASPERMONT     61  35  42  33  52 /  30  30  30  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

99/99/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
613 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012

TXZ021>044-091215-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
613 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. BREEZY TO
OCCASIONALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 30 TO 40
MPH AND GUSTS BETWEEN 45 TO 55 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH 7 PM. FINALLY...PRECIPITATION MAY
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CAPROCK AND PERHAPS INTO THE WESTERN ROLLING PLAINS ON FRIDAY.
CURRENTLY IT APPEARS ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
BY MONDAY...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.