Hail in Tennessee, February 1, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
714 PM CST WED FEB 1 2012

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
00Z KBNA RAOB SHOWS WEAK S/B VEERING WITH LITTLE SHEAR. NOT EXPECTING
ANY SVR STORMS NORTH OF I-40. FURTHER SOUTH...ATM IS MORE UNSTABLE
WITH ISO HAILERS/WIND DAMAGE EVENTS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID EVENING.
NO WATCH ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CST WED FEB 1 2012/

UPDATE...

00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...

ISOLATED -TSRA CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE MID STATE. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHETHER BNA/CSV WILL BE
DIRECTLY IMPACTED...BUT WILL CONTINUE VCSH/VCTS AT BNA AND TEMPO
GROUPS FOR PRECIP AT BOTH AIRPORTS LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOG LATE TONIGHT...AS ATMOSPHERE
CLEARS OUT BEHIND PRECIP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTIFUL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURE
INVERSION. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON IFR VIS AT BNA...BUT LOOKS MORE
CERTAIN AT CSV FOR EVEN LIFR VIS. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT BOTH
AIRPORTS TOMORROW MORNING. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THIS EVENING WILL
VEER TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CST WED FEB 1 2012/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE MAP AT 20Z SHOWS COLD FRONT BETWEEN PAH AND
CKV, WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS PILING UP JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. VERY LITTLE PRECIP OCCURRING AROUND MIDDLE TENNESSEE AT THE
MOMENT, WITH EARLIER RAIN LINGERING ON THE PLATEAU, AND CONVECTIVE
CELLS STARTING TO FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SPC IS HOLDING THE
REGION IN A GENERAL TS AREA TODAY/TONIGHT, SO AM GOING ABOVE
GUIDANCE AND INCLUDING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED STORMS
DURING THE EVENING, THEN AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE
PROSPECT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT A PLEASANT THURSDAY WITH
CONTINUED WARM TEMPS, THEN THE NEXT SYSTEM MAKES A QUICK
APPEARANCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS. BEST CHANCE OF ACTIVE WX
WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, WITH A LINGERING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS EVEN SUNDAY. GFS IS THE
QUICKER MODEL WITH RESPECT TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST, WITH EUROPEAN
MODEL MOVING THE MOISTURE OUT MUCH MORE SLOWLY. AT ANY RATE, TEMPS
WILL FINALLY COOL OFF SOMEWHAT FOLLOWING THE WEEKEND FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
500 AM CST WED FEB 1 2012

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-021100-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
500 AM CST WED FEB 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

31

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
542 PM CST WED FEB 1 2012

TNZ007-008-020015-
ROBERTSON-SUMNER-
542 PM CST WED FEB 1 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEAST ROBERTSON AND SUMNER
COUNTIES...

AT 538 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CROSS PLAINS...OR 14 MILES EAST OF
SPRINGFIELD...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  PORTLAND BY 550 PM CST.
  WESTMORELAND BY 610 PM CST.

HALF INCH SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3664 8657 3665 8655 3659 8622 3653 8622
      3645 8625 3645 8627 3640 8627 3636 8628
      3635 8630 3651 8676 3666 8669 3666 8660

SHAMBURGER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
625 PM CST WED FEB 1 2012

TNZ093-094-020100-
LAWRENCE-WAYNE-
625 PM CST WED FEB 1 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WAYNE AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES...

AT 620 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OLIVE HILL
TO WAYNESBORO...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  COLLINWOOD BY 700 PM CST.

HALF INCH SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

LAT...LON 3510 8799 3531 8798 3539 8779 3540 8757
      3540 8752 3541 8751 3541 8739 3505 8738
      3506 8760

SHAMBURGER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
641 PM CST WED FEB 1 2012

TNZ026>028-059-062-020145-
CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-RUTHERFORD-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
641 PM CST WED FEB 1 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHEATHAM...DAVIDSON...
RUTHERFORD...WILLIAMSON AND WILSON COUNTIES...

AT 639 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BELLE MEADE...OR 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
NASHVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BELLE MEADE BY 650 PM CST.
  FOREST HILLS BY 655 PM CST.
  OAK HILL BY 700 PM CST.
  LA VERGNE BY 735 PM CST.
  RURAL HILL BY 740 PM CST.
  5 MILES NORTH OF SMYRNA BY 745 PM CST.

HALF INCH SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3619 8643 3585 8645 3599 8704 3617 8702