Blizzard and Avalanche in Alaska, February 1 to 3, 2012

Name: Blizzard and Avalanche in Alaska, February 1 to 3, 2012
Start: 2012-02-01T04:45
End: 2012-02-03T18:00
Location: Alaska

February 1 to 3, 2012 · NWS AFC · 11 events in 9 counties and zones

The toll

Deaths: 1
Injuries: 0
Property damage: $100,000
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 11

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS AFC wrote it up.

A large intense north Pacific storm moved across Kodiak Island into the lower Cook Inlet and south central region of Alaska the afternoon of February 1st. This storm produced high wind and blizzard conditions from the Alaska Peninsula to the Kuskokwim Delta east across the Kenai Peninsula into Prince William Sound. The sudden change in the weather pattern brought on extreme avalanche danger to the Kenai Mountains and Chugach Mountains. One Avalanche closed the Seward Highway at the junction of the Sterling Highway February 2nd. One man died after he went out into the blizzard on a snow machine near Toksook Bay in the Kuskokwim Delta.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 31, 2:00 PM AKST, 14 hours 45 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 31, 2:00 PM AKST, 14 hours 45 minutes before

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS INITIALIZATIONS WERE REASONABLE. THE ECMWF
WITH THE FURTHER WEST TRACK OF THE MODELS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST
SOLUTION AT THIS POINT.

.UPPER LEVELS...MINOR SHORT WAVES OVER SOUTHCENTRAL TRACK EAST
TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE SOUTH THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS INTENSIFIES AS IT
COMES IN PHASE OF WITH TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA AND COLD AIR
FLOWING OUT OF BERING SEA. A LOW FORMS WITHIN THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AND INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES TO SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WED. THE LOW
DRIFTS NORTH AND WEAKENS THU. A STRONG SOUTHERLY JET FORMS ON THE
EAST FLANK OF THE LOW AND MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD WED. MINOR SHORT
WAVES MOVE EAST ACROSS THE BERING SEA THROUGH THU.

.SURFACE...
THE MAIN FEATURE IS A DEVELOPING LOW WITHIN THE COMPLEX SOUTH OF THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THE CENTER WHICH IS PROBABLY IN THE 970S THIS
AFTERNOON INTENSIFIES UNDER A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND A STRONG JET.
THE LOW SHOULD DEEPEN INTO THE 940S AS IT APPROACHES KODIAK ISLAND
WED AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT HEADS TOWARD COOK INLET THU. THIS
TRACK IS A LITTLE FURTHER WEST THEN YESTERDAYS RUNS...BUT LOOKS
REASONABLE AS THE LOW SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE COLD AIR TO THE WEST AS
IT OCCLUDES. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES TO KODIAK TONIGHT AND TO THE
NORTH GULF COAST AND COOK INLET WED NIGHT. A VIGOROUS 970S MB LOW
NEAR ATKA IS PRODUCING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TONIGHT AS THE LOW DROPS
SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS IT
TRACKS NORTH IN THE GULF. HIGH WIND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
KODIAK ISLAND AND IN ZONE 135. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER KODIAK WED
AFTERNOON AND ZONE 135 WED NIGHT. WARM AIR WILL SPREAD NORTH WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTS WILL
START AS SNOW BUT SHOULD RAPIDLY SHIFT TO RAIN OR A MIX. THAT
SAID...KODIAK AND ZONE 135 MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW VISIBILITIES
IN BLOWING SNOW WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
COLD ENOUGH IN 125(INTERIOR LOCATIONS) AND 131 (THOMPSON PASS)...SO
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE ONSET OF SNOW WED. TEMPS WARM
ENOUGH IN ZONE 125 WED NIGHT...SO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SHOULD END.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE TALKEETNA AND CHUGACH
MOUNTAINS SHOULD PRODUCE RELATIVELY DRY DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS TO THE
LEE. HOWEVER...UPSLOPE CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
SUSITNA VALLEY WED AFTERNOON AND BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW POTENTIAL.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND AK PEN...
INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WIND CHILLS OVER THE DELTA
THROUGH THU. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH SNOW ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BRING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO THE
AK PEN STARTING WED MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THU MORNING.

.ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS SHOULD END OVERNIGHT AS LOW TRACKS SOUTH AND WEAKENS.
ANOTHER LOW...A LITTLE WEAKER THAN THE LAST ONE WILL BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND GENERALLY SUB-GALE WINDS WED AND THU.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
COLD ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY OVER THE UPPER COOK INLET
REGION INCLUDING ANCHORAGE AS LOW PRESSURE WINDS DOWN AND SLIDES
NORTH AND EAST TOWARDS THE ALCAN BORDER. AS THIS HAPPENS...ANOTHER
POWERFUL LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE NEAR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS
AND THEN BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL AND/OR WESTERN BERING
SEA. THIS WILL SET UP DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER MUCH
OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA BY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT CONTINUED INCREASED STORMINESS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING...187
         BLIZZARD WATCH...125 131 161 181 (UPGRADES LIKELY)
         HIGH WIND WATCH...135 171 (UPGRADES LIKELY)
MARINE...GALES...125 140 141 160 165 170 171 172 175 179 180
         STORMS...120 130 132 138 150 155
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC JAN 12

Event by event

7 blizzard, 2 high wind, 1 avalanche, 1 heavy snow. Local standard time, as filed.

Blizzard, Bristol Bay

When: February 1, 4:45 AM AKST to February 2, 8:00 AM AKST
Where: Bristol Bay forecast zone
Reported by: AWOS

Blizzard, Alaska Peninsula

When: February 1, 7:00 AM AKST to February 2, 3:00 AM AKST
Where: Alaska Peninsula forecast zone
Property damage: $100,000
Reported by: ASOS

Strong wind associated with the blizzard damaged a building in King Cove.

Blizzard, Kuskokwim Delta

When: February 1, 9:50 AM AKST to February 2, 3:30 AM AKST
Where: Kuskokwim Delta forecast zone
Deaths: 0 direct, 1 indirect
Reported by: ASOS

High Wind, Sern P.W. Snd

When: February 1, 10:00 AM AKST to 3:30 PM AKST
Where: Sern P.W. Snd forecast zone
Measured: 73 kt (84 mph) measured gust
Reported by: AWOS

Blizzard, Kenai Peninsula

When: February 1, 10:00 AM AKST to 4:00 PM AKST
Where: Kenai Peninsula forecast zone
Reported by: AWOS

Blizzard, Anchorage Muni to Bird Creek

When: February 1, 3:00 PM AKST to 6:30 PM AKST
Where: Anchorage Muni to Bird Creek forecast zone
Reported by: NWS Employee

Blizzard, Nern P.W. Snd

When: February 1, 3:20 PM AKST to February 2, 9:00 PM AKST
Where: Nern P.W. Snd forecast zone
Reported by: Department of Highways

Blizzard, Wrn P.W. Snd & Kenai Mtns

When: February 1, 3:25 PM AKST to 8:00 PM AKST
Where: Wrn P.W. Snd & Kenai Mtns forecast zone
Reported by: Official NWS Observations

High Wind, Anchorage Muni to Bird Creek

When: February 1, 6:00 PM AKST to 8:00 PM AKST
Where: Anchorage Muni to Bird Creek forecast zone
Measured: 81 kt (93 mph) measured gust
Reported by: Official NWS Observations

Avalanche, Wrn P.W. Snd & Kenai Mtns

When: February 2, 6:00 AM AKST
Where: Wrn P.W. Snd & Kenai Mtns forecast zone
Reported by: Department of Highways

Heavy Snow, Copper River Basin

When: February 3, 4:00 AM AKST to 6:00 PM AKST
Where: Copper River Basin forecast zone
Reported by: Department of Highways

Twenty six inches of snow fell at Ernestine DOT camp and 30 inches of snow fell at Tiekel River Lodge at mile post 56. The Richardson Highway was closed from mile post 12 to 55 due to heavy snow and blowing snow.

The people who died

As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.

Event	Date	Age	Sex	Where	Kind
Blizzard, Kuskokwim Delta	2012-02-01	20	Male	Outside/Open Areas	Indirect

What these are

Blizzard: Sustained winds or frequent gusts of 35 mph or more with falling or blowing snow that cuts visibility below a quarter mile for three hours or longer.
High Wind: Sustained non-thunderstorm winds of 40 mph or more for an hour, or gusts of 58 mph or more.
Avalanche: A mass of snow sliding down a mountainside that caused a death, an injury or damage.
Heavy Snow: Snowfall reaching the local warning threshold without the other hazards of a winter storm.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Alaska in 2012 Every state in 2012 This day in weather history Warnings in Alaska, February 2012

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 355789, 355791, 355788, 355796, 355797, 355792, 355795, 355794, 355793, 355653, 356057.