Strong Wind in North Carolina, January 26, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
644 PM EST THU JAN 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR
REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND REACH THE CAROLINA COAST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND
REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM...THE DEEPEST CONVECTION THUS FAR HAS BEEN MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN GA EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...HIGH VALUES
OF LOW LEVEL EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE HAVE REACHED THE SE
PIEDMONT OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEEPER FORCING MOVING INTO THIS
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR SHOULD ALLOW THE BETTER CONVECTION TO RIDE
NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
CONVECTION. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND THUNDER CHANCES BOOSTED ACROSS THE SRN
TIER. THE ONLY OTHER CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE WERE MINOR TEMP TREND
ADJUSTMENTS.

OTHERWISE...THE PHASING SRN STREAM UPPER LOW IS OPENING OVER THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. STILL ANTCIPATE STRONG QG AND
UPPER JETLET FORCING TRAVERSING THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED
SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EAST OF THE
AREA AROUND DAYBREAK. EXPECT SRLY GUSTS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT. DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT ENDING THE
PRECIP FROM SW TO NE FRI MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SHRA
ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES. THICKNESSES AND H85 TEMPS ARE FAIRLY
COOL THERE...BUT MARGINAL FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS THE NW FLOW
COUNTIES. HAVE KEPT ANY PRECIP LIQUID FOR NOW. GUSTY SW TO W WINDS
BECOME W TO NW BY AFTERNOON..BUT WITH SPEEDS BELOW LAKE WIND OR WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY MORNING. SKY COVER SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH LIGHT WINDS. CONDITIONS SHOULD SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS
LLVL THICKNESSES REMAIN MILD. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM AROUND 30 ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS TO U30S EAST.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE THAT A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION ON SATURDAY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MODELS INDICATE THAT FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LOW AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE
MAY EXIST TO SUPPORT A FEW UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE NRN MTNS DURING AROUND FROPA. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST AREA
WILL REMAIN DRY AND MILD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE MTNS TO U50S TO NEAR 60 EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE AND CAA WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT. MIN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING MAY RANGE FROM THE MID
20S ACROSS THE MTNS TO AROUND 30 EAST. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...PER HPC MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION THE
OPERATIONAL ECM AND GFS MODELS QUICKLY BECOME OUT OF PHASE WITH THE
UPPER AIR FEATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. HENCE...HPC FAVORED A BLEND OF
THE GFS/ECM ENSEMBLE MEANS. LOOKING AT THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...THIS
WOULD IMPLY A ZONAL TYPE UPPER AIR PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN THE WED TIME FRAME. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SE STATES WILL MOVE OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST BY TUE AND ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA
ON WED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE AREA ON THU.
HENCE...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS MON THROUGH
TUE. HAVE INDICATED A LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WED WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE....WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ON THU. ANY PRECIP
SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID EXCEPT PERHAPS AT THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN
PEAKS...AND THEN ONLY IF THE PRECIP BEGINS EARLY ENOUGH ON WED AND
IF ANY UPSLOPE DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE WED. TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE VALUES ON MON...WARMING TO A CATEGORY OR TWO
ABOVE AVERAGE THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF VFR CONDITIONS HAS OPENED UP ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AROUND CLT THIS EVENING IN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS SHOULD
FILL BACK IN WITH MVFR CIGS THROUGH 03Z...WITH SOLID IFR CIGS IN THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AFTER 03Z. WILL RIDE ON VCSH AND THEN CB MENTION
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS...THEN BRING IN SOLID SHRA AND CB
TOWARD 05Z. WE COULD NEED TEMPO THUNDER BETWEEN 05Z AND 09Z...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS POINT. ANTICIPATE THE
LOWEST IFR CIGS/VSBY WITH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE/SHOWER LINE CIRCA 07Z
TO 10Z...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH MID MORNING FRI. LIGHT
WINDS EARLY WILL BECOME S AND GUSTY OVERNIGHT...TURNING SW AND THEN
WESTERLY THROUGH FRI.

ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS WILL STEADILY FILL IN ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
SW THIS EVENING AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING WAVE AND FRONT. SOLID MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND
DOWNWARD TO IFR THROUGH 03Z WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE A CB MENTION GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OVER INSTABILITY...BUT TEMPO
THUNDER WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT THE SC TAF SITES LATE THIS
EVENING...IF NEEDED. SOLID IFR WITH MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT UNTIL FROPA EARLY FRIDAY...WITH STEADY
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SRLY WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY OVERNIGHT...TURN SW AND THEN NW THROUGH FRI AFTN.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT THROUGH TUE.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
247 PM EST THU JAN 26 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-272000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
247 PM EST THU JAN 26 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A BROAD BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF AN ORGANIZED LINE OR
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ON FRIDAY. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
POSSIBLY BRIEF TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT REGIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.