Deep low pressure moved across the Great Lakes region. The low brought strong southwest winds to the region which were funneled over Lake Erie to produce damage along the shoreline.
Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BUF wrote it up.
Deep low pressure moved across the Great Lakes region. The low brought strong southwest winds to the region which were funneled over Lake Erie to produce damage along the shoreline. The winds, measured to 61 mph, downed trees and power poles. In some areas the falling trees took down power line and scattered outages were reported. Winds gusted to 61 mph at Barcelona, 60 mph at Buffalo, and 59 mph at Dunkirk.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 1, 3:50 PM EST, 1 hour 40 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
350 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY...WITH STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND A COLD FRONT BY THIS
EVENING. THE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE
HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPS EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO AND
PRODUCES LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY. AN
ARCTIC FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOW AND WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
WINTER SO FAR ON TUESDAY. MOST OF THE SNOW WILL END BY TUESDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT FROM ABOUT KITCHENER
ONTARIO TO JUST EAST OF CLEVELAND. THE FRONT WILL RACE EAST AND
CROSS WESTERN NY THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND CLEAR THE NORTH
COUNTRY BY EARLY EVENING. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING NUMEROUS SHOWERS OUT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...SUPPORTED BY STRONG MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
AND DPVA AHEAD OF THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH A RAPID
DIMINISHING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
LOTS TO TALK ABOUT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HERE IS THE BREAKDOWN.
SYNOPTIC...
THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM NEAR MANITOULIN ISLAND ON
LAKE HURON THIS AFTERNOON TO CENTRAL QUEBEC BY MONDAY MORNING...THEN
TOWARDS LABRADOR BY MONDAY EVENING. A DRY SLOT WILL WORK ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. WHILE SKIES WILL NOT
CLEAR...THERE SHOULD BE VERY LITTLE PRECIP OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE
EFFECT AREAS. LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
BEGINS TO WORK BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES REGION WITH SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ON THE INCREASE. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD NON-LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE FROM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARPENING OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. MORE ON THAT IN THE
SHORT TERM SECTION BELOW. THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT VERY
LITTLE ACCUMULATION OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS WITH NOTHING MORE
THAN A DUSTING TO AN INCH.
NOW FOR THE LAKE EFFECT...
OFF LAKE ERIE...
ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO
COOL THE COLUMN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT GIVEN THE VERY WARM
START AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NAM/GFS BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY MID EVENING TO START A BAND. STRONG
WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND INITIALLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL
PREVENT ANYTHING TOO ORGANIZED BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WHATEVER DOES FORM
WILL DO SO ACROSS THE BUFFALO METRO AREA. BOUNDARY LAYER MAY STILL
BE WARM ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME RAIN TO MIX IN WITH VERY LITTLE
ACCUMULATION THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO DEEPEN LATER TONIGHT WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPE
REACHING 250J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS OF 10K FEET BY 12Z MONDAY.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE WELL ALIGNED OVERNIGHT...AND LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON WIND SPEEDS SOMEWHAT AFTER ABOUT
06Z MONDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...WIND SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM AS FAR
AS SHEAR IS CONCERNED AFTER ABOUT 06Z MONDAY. FORECAST PROFILES AND
MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLOW AND STEADY PROGRESSION
SOUTH OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BUFFALO TO
SOUTHERN GENESEE COUNTY DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING...THEN
INTO THE BOSTON HILLS AND WYOMING COUNTY...AND CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY
SHORELINE BY 12Z MONDAY. WITH STEADILY IMPROVING INSTABILITY EXPECT
THE BAND TO GAIN ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY ON ITS WAY SOUTH...WITH
1-2 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY TO REACH 4-6 INCHES ACROSS
THE MORE DISTANT SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BUFFALO SUCH AS HAMBURG...OP
AND EAST AURORA...EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING COUNTIES
AND SOUTHWEST GENESEE COUNTY WITH SEVERAL INCHES IN WESTERN
CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY AS WELL. IN THE IMMEDIATE BUF AREA...EXPECT AN
INCH OR LESS NORTHTOWNS...AND 2-4 INCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CITY INTO THE EASTERN SUBURBS.
ON MONDAY LAKE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO IMPROVE WITH LAKE INDUCED
CAPES REACHING 400J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON WITH 11K FOOT EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS. THIS COMBINED WITH WELL ALIGNED CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PRODUCE A
NEARLY IDEAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SETUP. A LOOK AT OUR LAKE EFFECT
COMPOSITE ANALOG CHARTS SHOWS THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES OF THIS EVENT
MATCHING UP VERY CLOSELY TO THE ANALOG FOR A MAJOR CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE
EVENT...WITH MAJOR BEING DEFINED AS 2 FEET OR MORE MAX STORM TOTALS.
GIVEN THE VERY FAVORABLE ANALOG COMPARISON AND LAKE PARAMETERS...
EXPECT HEALTHY LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO MOVE FROM THE DISTANT BUFFALO
SOUTHTOWNS AT 12Z MONDAY STEADILY SOUTH THROUGH SKI COUNTRY AND
SOUTHERN TIER ON MONDAY. THE MOTION OF THE BAND WILL KEEP
ACCUMULATIONS FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND...BUT 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR
SHOULD STILL PRODUCE SOME TOTALS OF 8-12 INCHES DURING THE DAY
MONDAY IN PERSISTENT BANDS.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...
COLD AIR WILL TAKE SEVERAL MORE HOURS TO DEEPEN...WITH LITTLE OR NO
LAKE EFFECT THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. BY 12Z MONDAY LAKE INSTABILITY
RAPIDLY IMPROVES WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO 10K FEET. EXPECT
A DISORGANIZED BAND TO BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF
WATERTOWN...WITH UPSLOPE BEGINNING ON THE NORTHERN TUG HILL AS WELL.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY INITIALLY BE WARM ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME RAIN
TO MIX IN...WITH A CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AFTER ABOUT 3 AM. WITH THE
LATER START AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS...ACCUMS SHOULD BE HELD TO ONLY 1-3 INCHES THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.
ON MONDAY THINGS SHOULD REALLY CRANK OF ONTARIO WITH LAKE INDUCED
CAPES RISING TO 300J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS NEAR 10K FEET.
MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A DYNAMIC UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO
LAKE HURON WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
BECOMES ALIGNED DUE WESTERLY...WITH IDEAL UPSLOPE INTO THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU. A LOOK AT OUR LAKE EFFECT COMPOSITE ANALOG CHARTS SHOWS THE
LARGE SCALE FEATURES OF THIS EVENT MATCHING UP VERY CLOSELY TO THE
ANALOG FOR A MAJOR TUG HILL EVENT...WITH MAJOR BEING DEFINED AS 3
FEET OR MORE MAX STORM TOTALS.
WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT THE BAND TO INTENSIFY OVER WATERTOWN
AND POINTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE ROUTE 3 CORRIDOR DURING THE MORNING
WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...THEN SLOWLY SINK
ACROSS THE TUG HILL DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. UPSLOPE SHOULD
ALSO BE OCCURRING ON THE TUG HILL EVEN BEFORE THE MAIN BAND GETS
THERE. EXPECT 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
GREATEST AMOUNTS ON THE TUG HILL. LOWER ELEVATIONS IN PERSISTENT
BANDS MAY GET 8-12 INCHES DURING THE DAY MONDAY...WITH 1-2 FEET ON
THE TUG HILL DURING MONDAY.
WINDS...
MODEL RUNS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE BACKED OFF BY ABOUT
10 KNOTS ON WINDS ALOFT...DECREASING THE POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT FOR
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. STILL...IT IS A VERY FAVORABLE STORM
TRACK JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION WITH FUNNELING DOWN THE LENGTH OF
LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO. EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS TO BE FROM THE
LAKE ERIE SHORE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO NEAR
ROCHESTER...AND ALSO JEFFERSON COUNTY LAKESHORE. STILL EXPECT A FEW
GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH THIS EVENING AS COLD AIR DEEPENS AND LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN...ALLOWING STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT TO MIX DOWN.
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW...
THE STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE EXTENSIVE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN
AREAS WHICH RECEIVE LAKE EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES...LEADING TO NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY AND VERY DIFFICULT OR EVEN NEAR IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL
REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW SUPPORTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACTIVITY WILL BE
IN PLACE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH
THE COLD CORE ALOFT OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT.
FROM LAKE ERIE...SNOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS
IN TRADITIONAL AREAS...BOSTON HILLS...CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...WESTERN
WYOMING COUNTY...TAPERING OFF OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
CATTARAUGUS COUNTY TOWARD OLEAN...WITH THE LEAST AMOUNTS EASTWARD
ACROSS ALLEGANY COUNTY. HARDEST HIT LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AN
ADDITIONAL 6-12 INCHES OVERNIGHT...WITH 1-6 INCHES ARCHING AROUND
THE MAIN BAND FROM THE SOUTHTOWNS TO ARCADE...BELMONT AND BOLIVAR.
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE STRONG WITH BLOWING SNOW CONTINUING TO CAUSE
SOME WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES...BUT THEY SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
PLUMMET...WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING BELOW ZERO BY DAYBREAK.
ON TUESDAY...AN ADDITIONAL 1-4 INCHES IS EXPECTED OFF LAKE
ERIE...PRIMARILY CHAUTAUQUA...EXTREME SOUTHERN ERIE...AND NORTHWEST
CATTARAUGUS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHWEST WYOMING COUNTIES.
MEDIA - IF THERE ARE ROAD CLOSURES...STRANDED TRAVELERS WILL BE IN
DANGER OF FROSTBITE OR HYPOTHERMIA IF THEY LEAVE THEIR VEHICLES
MONDAY NIGHT. PLEASE URGE TRAVELERS TO STAY PUT...TAKE EXTRA
CLOTHING...BLANKETS...FOOD...AND OTHER ESSENTIAL SURVIVAL SUPPLIES.
FROM LAKE ONTARIO...AS ALWAYS...THIS IS A MORE TRICKY FORECAST WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW. EXPECT A GEORGIAN BAY CONNECTION AT SOME
POINT...POSSIBLY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY TUESDAY...MIGRATING
FROM NIAGARA COUNTY EASTWARD AND SLOWING OVER MONROE COUNTY TO
OSWEGO COUNTY. WILL ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR MONROE TO
NORTHERN CAYUGA...AND ANTICIPATE POSSIBLE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS OVER
NIAGARA AND ORLEANS...LEAVING LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS OVER NORTHERN
ERIE GENESEE AND LIVINGSTON COUNTIES...FOR NOW...WITH LOWEST
CONFIDENCE ON SNOW AMOUNTS FOR BUFFALO EAST TO NORTHERN LIVINGSTON
COUNTY. OSWEGO IS ALREADY UNDER A WARNING...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
ADJUSTED AS THE BAND MOVES OFF THE TUG HILL AND FOCUSES SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKE.
MORE SPECIFICALLY THE ONGOING MAIN LAKE BAND OVER THE TUG HILL EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD DRIFT SOUTH AND MERGE WITH A GEORGIAN BAY
CONNECTION FOR SNOW TOTALS MAXING OUT OVER OSWEGO COUNTY AND NEARBY
TUG HILL. CURRENTLY EXPECT 6-12 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT...WITH 4-8 FROM
MOST OF MONROE TO NORTHERN CAYUGA AND LESS ELSEWHERE. BLOWING SNOW
MAY STILL BE PROBLEMATIC WITH GUSTS TO 30MPH PRODUCING SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT
SPECIFICALLY MENTIONED IN THE GRIDDED OUTPUT AT THIS TIME.
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE OVER WAYNE TO OSWEGO TUESDAY...WITH
ANOTHER 6+ INCHES THERE...WITH 3-6 INCHES OVER
MONROE...ONTARIO...AND SOUTHERN JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES. WIND
CHILLS WILL BE NEARING -20-25F EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...POSSIBLY
COLDER IF ANY CLEARING IS REALIZED. CURRENT FORECASTS PLACE THIS
AREA WELL WITHIN WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WILL SAVE THAT
FOR LATER FORECAST UPDATES AND HANDLE THE MORE PRESSING ISSUE OF
WIND AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW FIRST.
AREAWIDE...SNOW WILL BE LIGHT AND FLUFFY BY TUESDAY...AND HIGH SNOW
RATIOS WILL BE MAKE SOME HIGHLY VARIABLE BUT LOCALLY IMPRESSIVE SNOW
AMOUNTS. THE ABOVE FORECAST AMOUNTS IN THE NEAR-TERM AND SHORT TERM
SECTIONS SHOULD BE REASONABLE ESTIMATES. STORM TOTALS TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY ARE NOT CONSERVATIVE...WITH POINT-BASED
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2+ FEET SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE...AND OVER 3 FEET
CENTERED ON THE TUG HILL. THESE AMOUNTS MATCH WITH HISTORICALLY BIG
LAKE EFFECT EVENTS RESULTING FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST ATMOSPHERIC
PATTERN. THESE AMOUNTS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN MODEL
FORECASTS AND HPC. THE MODELS DO HAVE LOWER OMEGA THAN TYPICAL FOR
THESE EVENTS AND HENCE LOWER QPF. WHILE NOT PUSHING THE ENVELOPE
TOO MUCH...WE ARE FORECASTING ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE. PUBLICLY
AVAILABLE HPC OUTPUT MAY BE TOO COARSE FOR THE LAKE EFFECT NATURE OF
THE UPCOMING EVENT.
TUESDAY NIGHT...LAKE EFFECT SHOULD FINALLY WIND DOWN WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE MOVING INTO THE REGION WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE ARCTIC AIR
AND AND INVERSION NEARING 2500FT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE EASILY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AREAWIDE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY QUITE
A BIT COLDER IF THERE IS ANY CLEARING WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK. TEMPS
AGAIN SHOULD DROP BELOW ZERO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS IMPRESSIVE AS
ITS PREDECESSOR. HOWEVER...IT MAY STILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO
RE-ENERGIZE SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY OFF LAKE ERIE...WITH GENERAL
LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLY MOVING IN ELSEWHERE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS ONTARIO PROVINCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY THIS WEEK AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BY WEDNESDAY...AND WILL BE AFFECTING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK BY
THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT BY THIS TIME WILL STILL BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY. THE GFS HAS NW WINDS WHILE HPC HAS
SOUTHWEST WINDS...LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY LAKE EFFECT
PLACEMENT. THE COLD CORE ALOFT WILL ALREADY BE EAST OF THE REGION
BY THIS TIME WITH AN CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 4500 FT. LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY LOOKS SUB ADVISORY AT THIS DISTANT VIEWPOINT.
A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING FOR ALL BUT THE TUG HILL WHICH WILL BY BURIED IN SNOW BY
THIS TIME. EVEN THE HEAVILY SNOW COVERED AREAS SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER SHOULD WARM UP TO OR ABOVE FREEZING. ACROSS
AREAS WITH LESS SNOW COVER...MAX TEMPS SHOULD GET INTO THE LOW 40S.
THIS SHOULD BE A DRY DAY AREAWIDE ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING IN FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE
WAY TOO MUCH MODEL VARIABILITY WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. THEREFORE
THERE IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN PLACE. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
VASTLY OUT OF TOUCH WITH THE OVERALL FORECAST PATTERN OVER THE US.
WILL DISCOUNT THE GFS AND LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF WITH BETTER RUN TO
RUN CONTINUITY. DETERMINISTIC INFORMATION PROVIDED IN GRIDDED
FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND RESULTING WEATHER OUTPUT SHOULD BE USED
WITH CAUTION WITH HIGH BUST POTENTIAL.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NY
AND DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO NEAR KART.
SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND UNSATURATED LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP
CIGS/VSBY PRIMARILY VFR. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WITHOUT THE BENEFIT OF DOWNSLOPE
WINDS...WITH MVFR MORE COMMON THERE. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING A LARGER AREA OF MVFR CIGS UPSTREAM ACROSS OHIO AND MICHIGAN
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION...AND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST
AND ELIMINATE THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT. SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME
MORE SPARSE IN COVERAGE BY EARLY EVENING FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
FOR TONIGHT...OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS SHOWERS WILL END AND CIGS
WILL IMPROVE FROM MVFR TO VFR. AS FOR LAKE EFFECT...OFF LAKE ERIE
EXPECT A DISORGANIZED BAND TO DEVELOP NEAR KBUF BY MID TO LATE
EVENING. THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY STILL BE MILD ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX AT THE ONSET...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW RATHER QUICKLY. STRONG WINDS
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THE BAND FAIRLY DISORGANIZED
DURING ITS TIME OVER KBUF WITH IFR VSBY BUT DONT EXPECT HEAVY SNOW
OUT OF THIS BAND UNTIL IT GETS SAFELY SOUTH OF KBUF LATE TONIGHT.
THE BAND MAY BRIEFLY EXTEND INLAND TO KROC WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR BEFORE MOVING SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. ON MONDAY
EXPECT THE BAND TO SETTLE INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND BE
QUITE INTENSE WITH LOCAL VLIFR CONDITIONS...INCLUDING AT KJHW.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO EXPECT A MIX OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW TO
DEVELOP NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF KART BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN CHANGE
TO ALL SNOW AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH A
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE BEFORE THE BAND SHIFTS
SOUTH OF KART INTO THE TUG HILL REGION LATER IN THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WITH IFR.
TUESDAY...AREAS OF IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL RAMP UP FIRST ON LAKE ERIE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THEN ON LAKE ONTARIO LATER THIS EVENING
AS COLD AIR DEEPENS AND THE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES...
ALLOWING STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT TO MIX DOWN. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED OFF ABOUT 10 KNOTS ON WINDS ALOFT FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY AT
THIS TIME...SO THIS NOW APPEARS TO JUST BE A SOLID GALE AND NOT
CLOSE TO STORMS. EXPECT PEAK SUSTAINED WINDS TO REACH 40 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS IN THE 45-50 KNOT RANGE...PRODUCING 12-15 FOOT WAVES ON BOTH
LAKES.
A LOW END GALE WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AS WINDS GRADUALLY VEER MORE
WESTERLY. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
MONDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST...AND ALSO BRING
SPEEDS BELOW GALE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND SUBSIDING WAVES.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WATER RISES ON
LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. THIS HAS THE LOOK OF
A CLASSIC SEICHE EVENT ON LAKE ERIE WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS INITIALLY
SHIFTING QUICKLY TO SOUTHWEST AND RAPIDLY INCREASING IN STRENGTH.
MODEL GUIDANCE FROM GLERL RAISES THE LAKE LEVEL TO NEAR 7 FEET IN
BUFFALO. THIS IS TYPICALLY UNDERDONE...AND GIVEN THE PATTERN
RECOGNITION WOULD EXPECT THE LEVEL TO REACH 8 FEET ABOVE LOW
WATER DATUM.
WITH THIS IN MIND...WE HAVE ISSUED A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING
FOR ERIE AND CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING. EXPECT FLOODING OF HARBORS AND AT THE MOUTH OF CREEKS
ALONG THE LAKESHORE...AND ALSO ALONG FUHRMAN BLVD AND PORTIONS OF
ROUTE 5.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ001>003-010>012-
019-020-085.
LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ010-019-
085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR NYZ006>008-012-019>021-085.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ007.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ005-006-008.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NYZ003>005-014.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ004-013-014-021.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
MONDAY FOR NYZ010-011.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ020-040-041.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ030.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ042-062.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ043>045-063>065.
&&
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HITCHCOCK/TMAHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 525 AM EST SUN JAN 1 2012 NYZ001-002-021030- NIAGARA-ORLEANS- 525 AM EST SUN JAN 1 2012 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST MONDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. HIGH WIND WARNING. THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIVING SNOW ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPACTED BY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THOSE PLANNING TO TRAVEL SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF NYZ010-021030- NORTHERN ERIE- 525 AM EST SUN JAN 1 2012 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST MONDAY... ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY... ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST MONDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. HIGH WIND WARNING. LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING. THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING. TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPACTED BY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THOSE PLANNING TO TRAVEL SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF NYZ011-021030- GENESEE- 525 AM EST SUN JAN 1 2012 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST MONDAY... ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST MONDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. HIGH WIND WARNING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING. THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING. TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPACTED BY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THOSE PLANNING TO TRAVEL SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF NYZ021-021030- ALLEGANY- 525 AM EST SUN JAN 1 2012 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST MONDAY... ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WIND ADVISORY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING. THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING. TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPACTED BY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THOSE PLANNING TO TRAVEL SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF NYZ012-020-021030- WYOMING-CATTARAUGUS- 525 AM EST SUN JAN 1 2012 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST MONDAY... ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. HIGH WIND WARNING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING. THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING. THOSE PLANNING TO TRAVEL MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF NYZ019-085-021030- CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE- 525 AM EST SUN JAN 1 2012 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST MONDAY... ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY... ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. HIGH WIND WARNING. LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING. THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING. TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPACTED BY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THOSE PLANNING TO TRAVEL SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF NYZ005-021030- NORTHERN CAYUGA- 525 AM EST SUN JAN 1 2012 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST MONDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WIND ADVISORY. THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WIND ADVISORY. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LAKE SNOWS IS LIKELY TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON TRAVEL MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THOSE PLANNING TO TRAVEL SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF NYZ004-021030- WAYNE- 525 AM EST SUN JAN 1 2012 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST MONDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WIND ADVISORY. THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LAKE SNOWS IS LIKELY TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON TRAVEL MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THOSE PLANNING TO TRAVEL SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF NYZ003-021030- MONROE- 525 AM EST SUN JAN 1 2012 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST MONDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. HIGH WIND WARNING. THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LAKE SNOWS IS LIKELY TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON TRAVEL MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THOSE PLANNING TO TRAVEL SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF NYZ013-014-021030- LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO- 525 AM EST SUN JAN 1 2012 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST MONDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WIND ADVISORY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TRAVEL MAY BECOME DIFFICULT AT TIMES WITHIN ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF LOZ030-021030- LOWER NIAGARA RIVER- 525 AM EST SUN JAN 1 2012 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST MONDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. GALE WARNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. GALE WARNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF SLZ022-024-021030- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS- 525 AM EST SUN JAN 1 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF LEZ020-040-041-021030- UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO- 525 AM EST SUN JAN 1 2012 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE ERIE. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. GALE WARNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. GALE WARNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF LOZ043>045-063>065-021030- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- 525 AM EST SUN JAN 1 2012 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST MONDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. GALE WARNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. GALE WARNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF LOZ042-062-021030- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- 525 AM EST SUN JAN 1 2012 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST MONDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. GALE WARNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. GALE WARNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF NYZ007-021030- JEFFERSON- 525 AM EST SUN JAN 1 2012 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST MONDAY... ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. HIGH WIND WARNING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. HIGH WIND WARNING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LAKE SNOWS IS LIKELY TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON TRAVEL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THOSE PLANNING TO TRAVEL SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF NYZ006-008-021030- OSWEGO-LEWIS- 525 AM EST SUN JAN 1 2012 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST MONDAY... ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WIND ADVISORY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING. THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WIND ADVISORY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LAKE SNOWS IS LIKELY TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON TRAVEL MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THOSE PLANNING TO TRAVEL SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1223 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2012 NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085-012030- NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA- CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO... BATAVIA...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE... ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 1223 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2012 ...STRONG WINDS APPROACHING WESTERN NEW YORK... AT 1215 PM A STRONG COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM JUST WEST OF LONG POINT ONTARIO, SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE, TO JUST WEST OF ERIE PENNSYLVANIA. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH CHAUTAUQUA, ERIE AND NIAGARA COUNTIES AROUND 230 PM. AS THE FRONT PASSES, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY OF VARYING INTENSITY. MOST IMPORTANTLY, WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY, AND RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH, WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 40 TO 50 MPH. ONCE THE STRONG WINDS BEGIN, THEY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING, AND BECOME EVEN STRONGER WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH AFTER DARK. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO SECURE ANY OBJECTS THAT CAN BECOME AIRBORNE SUCH AS TRASH CANS AND CHRISTMAS DECORATIONS. IF YOU ARE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN A HIGH PROFILE VEHICLE, BE PREPARED FOR SIGNIFICANT BUFFETING, ESPECIALLY ON NORTH SOUTH ROADWAYS. MRP
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 346 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2012 NYZ019>021-012300- CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE 346 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2012 NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR THROUGH 6 PM. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...EXPECT WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...WINDS AS STRONG AS 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO SECURE ANY OBJECTS THAT CAN BE EASILY PICKED UP AND BLOWN AROUND. FURTHERMORE...TAKE PRECAUTIONS WHEN TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN A HIGH PROFILE VEHICLE OR TOWING A TRAILER THAT CAN BE PUSHED AROUND BY THE WIND. NYZ001-002-010>012-085-012300- NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO... BATAVIA...WARSAW...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 346 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2012 NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR THROUGH 6 PM. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...EXPECT WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...WINDS AS STRONG AS 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO SECURE ANY OBJECTS THAT CAN BE EASILY PICKED UP AND BLOWN AROUND. FURTHERMORE...TAKE PRECAUTIONS WHEN TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN A HIGH PROFILE VEHICLE OR TOWING A TRAILER THAT CAN BE PUSHED AROUND BY THE WIND.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New York in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in New York, January 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 363457, 363458, 363459.