Lack of rain during the month of October kept drought conditions status quo across the Missouri Bootheel. As a result, extreme (D3) conditions continued across the area.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
Lack of rain during the month of October kept drought conditions status quo across the Missouri Bootheel. As a result, extreme (D3) conditions continued across the area. Many pastures continued to be in poor condition and many farmers were still forced to feed cattle baled hay. Cattle continued to have a hard time finding adequate water sources as lake and river levels continued to be at low levels.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 30, 10:39 PM CST, 1 hour 21 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 1139 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012 .UPDATE... UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 857 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012/ UPDATE... UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS OVER MOST OF THE MID SOUTH. DISCUSSION... STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. A DEEP MOISTURE FEED OVERRUNNING A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI HAS PROVED FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH. SOME OF THE RAINFALL HAS BEEN HEAVY AT TIMES AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. ALSO SOME THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS AS WELL. THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE AND STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED FOR A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COOL ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THE NIGHT. UPDATED FORECAST AND ZONES HAVE BEEN SENT. PLAN TO UPDATE THE HWO TO REMOVE STRONG STORM WORDING BUT MAINTAIN HEAVY RAIN/ISOLATED FLOOD THREAT. JLH && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012/ DISCUSSION... CURRENTLY ACROSS THE REGION...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE MIDSOUTH. RADAR SHOWS A LARGE PRECIP SHIELD COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND WINDS WERE GENERALLY LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. ELSEWHERE...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MIGRATE TO THE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS SUGGESTING A STEADY INCREASE IN RAINFALL INTENSITY. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO PICK UP A BIT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES INCREASE AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE IS SOME SLIGHT MODEL DISCONTINUITY IN THE NEAR TERM AS THE NAM12 SEEMS TO SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN SLIGHTLY WHILE THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE FASTER. NAM GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW/MID LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF 45-50KTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. REGARDLESS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...RAINFALL INTENSITY WILL MOST DEFINITELY INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION. ELSEWHERE...LIGHT TO PERHAPS BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE LOWEST CHANCES BEING ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH. BY LATE MORNING MONDAY...THE ENHANCED DYNAMICS IN THE WARM SECTOR ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING SURFACE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION THUS REDUCING PROBABILITY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING LIGHT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH ON MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN GUSTY AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. TUESDAY WILL YIELD MUCH OF THE SAME WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY FALL AND SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR AS THE SYSTEM DISTANCES ITSELF FURTHER. A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL THEN SETUP ALLOWING FOR A WARM MOIST AIR MASS TO BEGIN TO BUILD. MEANWHILE...A DEEPENING 500MB TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES REACH BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S AND DEWPOINTS REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IT IS AT THIS POINT WERE MODEL DISAGREEMENT BECOMES MOST PREVALENT. THE 12Z GFS SHOWS THE TROUGH DIGGING SUBSTANTIALLY PRODUCING A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE FLOW ALOFT SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL INHIBITING THE SOUTHERN PUSH OF THE FRONT. THE GFS HAS BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS WITH THIS LATE TERM SYSTEM...THUS WENT WITH IT. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY MORNING. WENT WITH CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME BUT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE INCREASED WITH TIME AS NEWER MODEL GUIDANCE IS AVAILABLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS ALL THE MAKINGS OF A FALL TYPE COLD FRONT AND WILL COOL TEMPERATURES BY NEARLY 15 TO 20 DEGREES. CDG && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR OVERNIGHT...WITH CONDITIONS TRENDING TOWARDS PATCHY IFR AT MEM AND MKL....WIH TUP SEEING MORE PREDOMINATE IFR. PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS WILL BE MODERATE OR HEAVY AT TIMES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS JBR WHERE RAIN WILL REMAIN LIGHT. HAVE PLACED VCTS IN FOR THE FIRST THREE HOURS AT TUP AS SCATTERED THUNDER IS JUST OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE GUSTING NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS AOA 20 KTS EXPECTED AT MEM AND TUP. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATER IN THE PERIOD AND SWING MORE NORTHWESTERLY. RAIN WILL BEGIN ENDING AT JBR WITH A RETURN TO VFR WEATHER LATE THIS CYCLE. HOWEVER MODERATELY CONFIDENT MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES BEYOND THIS PERIOD. JAB && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MEM 60 68 56 72 / 100 100 60 30 MKL 59 67 55 68 / 100 100 60 40 JBR 58 68 54 71 / 60 90 50 40 TUP 58 70 57 71 / 100 100 60 30 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 910 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012 ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115- MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-020415- ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA- CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER- FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY- ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON- MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT- PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY- ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA- UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA- 910 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS... THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA. STRONG WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY ON FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY OF THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY FLOODING OR STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS TENNESSEE. JLH
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Extreme (D3) drought conditions continued across the county.
Extreme (D3) drought conditions continued across the county.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, October 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 417452, 417453.