A relatively weak weather disturbance brought locally heavy rains to Franklin County on the 29th, and several strong thunderstorms to the region during the afternoon and evening of the 30th. Locally damaging winds and flash flooding accompanied the storms on the 30th.
Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAN wrote it up.
A relatively weak weather disturbance brought locally heavy rains to Franklin County on the 29th, and several strong thunderstorms to the region during the afternoon and evening of the 30th. Locally damaging winds and flash flooding accompanied the storms on the 30th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 29, 1:55 PM CST, 5 hours 35 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
250 PM CDT SEP 29 2012
...HEAVY RAIN EVENT UNFOLDING FOR THIS WEEKEND...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SYSTEM WILL BRING TO THE REGION WITH REGARD TO SOME FLOODING
POTENTIAL FROM NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE
AREA GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE. ALSO OF CONCERN
WILL BE THE CHANCE OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS FOLLOWED BY POPS AND TEMPS.
LATEST SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WAS BRINGING IN RICH TROPICAL GULF MOISTURE (2
PLUS INCH PWATS) FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE ARKLAMISS REGION.
IT WAS GETTING SOME HELP FROM THE TROPICAL EXPRESS OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. THERE WAS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS WITH A SURFACE LOW
THROUGH JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR OF THE ARKLAMISS
REGION. ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE PLAINS SYSTEM WAS PROVIDING GOOD
MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...WHICH WAS EXPANDING NORTHWARD. THERE HAVE
BEEN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION.
NATCHEZ HAS RECEIVED AROUND TWO INCHES OF RAIN...WHICH SHOWS THE
RAIN EFFICIENCY OF THIS SYSTEM.
WELL WHAT A CHANGE IN MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN FROM 00Z TO 12Z. THE
MODELS HAVE COME TO A MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION TO THE SURFACE
LOW...EXCEPT THE OUTLIER OF THE EURO MODEL. THE MODELS HAVE THE
SURFACE LOW CROSSING FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISS
AROUND HBG ON SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING IT NORTH THROUGH NORTHWEST
ALABAMA ON SUNDAY...THEN IT BRINGS THE UPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE
REGION FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE EURO TRIED TO TAKE THE
SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE HEAVY RAINSHIELD OF THE DELTA REGION
ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHICH DOES NOT SEEM REASONABLE.
SO TAKING IT PERIOD BY PERIOD.
FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD. THE
GFS SHOWED 2 INCHES AROUND NATCHEZ BY THIS EVENING...WHICH VERIFIED.
EXPECT ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE SURFACE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE REGION OUT OF
TEXAS. EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND START TO REALLY ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE REGION
BY 06Z...WHICH IS WHEN WE STARTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. HPC HAS A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL PUSHING INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
FOR THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP HIGH POPS FOR TONIGHT AND PUT ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIMITED
INSTABILITY. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL KEEP HIGH POPS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF. ALSO PUT IN
LOCALLY RAINFALL FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN THE GRIDS. DURING THE
DAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE PUSHING TOWARD SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. MOST MODELS WERE PAINTING THREE TO FOUR
INCHES ACROSS SE ARKANSAS...NE LOUISIANA AND THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
MISSISSIPPI. LOCALLY 5-6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. HPC SHOWS A
HEALTHY DOSE OF RAINFALL WITH AREA WIDE 3INCHES UPWARDS TO 4 TO
AROUND 5 INCHES IN THE DELTA REGION. MODELS SHOWS SOME IMPRESSIVE
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DURING THE PERIOD. THE NAM MODEL WENT A LITTLE
HIGH WITH SOME 6 TO 8 INCHES AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SHEAR AND SOME
INSTABILITY FOR A POSSIBILITY OF A FEW TORNADOES AND SOME STRONG
WIND GUSTS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. SPC HAS A 5 PERCENT RISK ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT BELIEVE THAT
THE PRIMARY RISK WILL BE IN PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
MS. AS WE GO INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE LOW WILL COME ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST AND EAST MISSISSIPPI. WILL KEEP THE FLASH
WATCH EXPIRING AT 00Z MONDAY. BELIEVE BY THEN THAT THE RAINCOOLED
AIR WILL IMPEDE OUR CONVECTIVE CHANCES DURING THE EVENING AS THE
SURFACE LOW PASSES BY. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING
THE REGION FROM THE ARKLATEX. IT WILL PROVIDE SOME POST FRONTAL
RAINS TO THE REGION DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70. WENT WITH CURRENT FORECAST. HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY WILL BE FROM AROUND 70 NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH. WENT
CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE. LOWS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
WITH READINGS FROM MIDDLE 50S WEST TO THE MIDDLE 60S EAST...WHICH IS
CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE.
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THINGS WILL START TO WIND DOWN SOME AS
THE UPPER SYSTEM SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL SOME
CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND RAIN AROUND. THE RAINS
SHOULD COME TO AN END ON TUESDAY WITH SOME SPRINKLES IN THE
NORTHEAST. THE WRAP AROUND CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT OUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. WENT CLOSE
TO GMOS GUIDANCE. LOWS FOR MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE FROM THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S./17/
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)..THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG
CYCLONE CROSSING THE REGION WILL CONTINUE LIFTING THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON
TUESDAY DURING THE DAY. ONE LAST "COOL" DAY IS EXPECTED ON TUE AS A
RE-ENFORCING S/WV CROSSES THE TN VALLEY...ALTHOUGH LESS CLOUD COVER
WILL PROMOTE TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN MON WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO
THE MID-UPPER 70S.
SHORT LIVED UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF NEAR NORMAL
HIGHS(LOWER 80S) WED AND THUR BEFORE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF A DECENT COLD FRONT SLATED TO CROSS
THE REGION FRI OR SAT. DRIER AIR CHARACTERIZED BY PW VALUES BELOW AN
INCH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TUE AND BEYOND KEEPING
THINGS DRY. LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS LIKELY IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. /BK/
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CEILINGS OF 5-8K FEET WILL STEADILY LOWER THROUGH
THE EVENING AS RAINS DEVELOP FROM THE SW AND S. THE STEADIER RAINS
HAS REACHED A KMLU-KLUL LINE BY 20Z AND SHOULD COVER ALL AREAS WITH
SOME ACTION BY 00-03Z. CEILINGS WILL BE DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN AN
HOUR OR TWO OF WHEN RAINS BEGIN AND THEN BECOME IFR BY 07-10Z EARLY
SUNDAY LASTING THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN ENELY 6-12KTS AND TSRA SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE ISOLATED/ELEVATED CATEGORY UNTIL LATER SUNDAY WHEN A
SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO OUR SRN MS COUNTIES. /40/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 68 76 63 72 / 99 100 84 44
MERIDIAN 68 77 67 74 / 91 100 90 47
VICKSBURG 69 76 61 73 / 100 100 78 44
HATTIESBURG 71 83 68 75 / 77 95 48 33
NATCHEZ 70 79 60 73 / 99 100 40 32
GREENVILLE 64 70 59 71 / 100 100 100 64
GREENWOOD 66 71 62 71 / 99 100 100 64
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
MSZ018-019-025>045-047>050-053-054-059-060.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
ARZ074-075.
&&
17/40/BK/HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 243 PM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012 ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>045-047>050- 053-054-059-060-301945- ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND- MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR- SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES- CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON- NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-WARREN- HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-JEFFERSON-ADAMS- 243 PM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MOST OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND WILL BRING A FEW INCHES OF RAIN. THIS HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST FALLING ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE. OVERALL...2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...UP TO 6 INCHES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MSZ046-051-052-055>058-061>066-072>074-301945- KEMPER-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-FRANKLIN MS- LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR- FORREST- 243 PM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY A FEW SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THE RISK AREA WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A BUDE TO MERIDIAN LINE. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE FROM A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NO WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. 17
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
7 flash flood, 3 strong wind, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Water was over a bridge on Little Springs Road.
Two trees were blown down on County Road 17 south of Bay Springs. Minor damage to one house occurred.
Water was across Highway 82 in Indianola near Walmart.
Highway 82 in Leland had to be shut down due to flooding of an overpass.
Water was across Sky Farm Avenue, North Washington Street, and Clay Street at the Interstate 20 ramp. One water rescue was needed on Sky Farm Avenue.
A water rescue from a home was needed on Fansonia Plantation Road. Water was covering multiple roads across the county.
A couple trees were blown down on Center street in Itta Bena due to strong gradient winds associated with the low pressure system.
Water was in several homes in the city of Greenwood. Water was across John Pittman Road, as well as Main Street under the overpass. A car was stalled out on John Pittman Road due to high water.
Trees were blown down in northwest Carroll County due to strong winds associated with the low pressure system.
A tree was blown down just north of Grenada due to strong gradient winds associated with the low pressure system.
King Street in downtown Grenada was impassable due to high water.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Mississippi in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Mississippi, September 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 407728, 407729, 407731, 407730, 407732, 407733, 407734, 407739, 407737, 407738, 407740.