Severe drought conditions continued across the Minnesota arrowhead and adjacent areas.
Every event with a place to put it; 5 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS DLH wrote it up.
Severe drought conditions continued across the Minnesota arrowhead and adjacent areas.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Duluth, MN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 31, 11:32 PM CST, 29 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 1132 PM CST TUE JAN 31 2012 .AVIATION...02/01/06Z ISSUANCE... IFR IN OVERCAST CLOUDS...WITH SOME FOG OVER THE RAINY RIVER VALLEY...WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BROKEN NORTH OF DULUTH AND VFR BROKEN FURTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A PATCHY WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK TROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 728 PM CST TUE JAN 31 2012/ UPDATE... OUR CHANGES WERE VERY MINOR THIS EVENING...WITH INDICATIONS THAT THE LOW OVERCAST WOULD PERSIST. WE LEFT ISOLATED FREEZING DRIZZLE IN NORTH OF DULUTH LATE TONIGHT. WE WERE A LITTLE MORE RELUCTANT TO DECREASE CLOUDS EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHORT TERM... INCOMING COLD AIR IS SHALLOW...WITH THE INVERSION ABOVE THE COLD AIR TRAPPING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS IS JUST WEST OF THE RED RIVER AND ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MANITOBA LAKES...AND THIS EDGE IS MOVING EAST SLOWLY. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS CONFINED WELL NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER AT THIS TIME. LAPS AND NEAR-FUTURE NAM PUP UP SOUNDINGS...ALONG WITH SATELLITE TOPS...INDICATE THAT THE LOW CLOUDS ARE SHALLOW...RENDERING EITHER SNOW GRAINS OR FREEZING DRIZZLE RATHER UNLIKELY SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...BUT VERY FINE FREEZING DRIZZLE...WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR IMPACT...MAY OCCUR OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE AND ACROSS MORE RUGGED PARTS OF THE ARROWHEAD. WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH A MEAGER AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FEEDING IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT MINOR TROUGH...CLOUDS WILL REMAIN BUT THE BASES WILL LIFT SUBSTANTIALLY...WE REFLECTED THAT IN OUR AVIATION FORECASTS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CST TUE JAN 31 2012/ SHORT TERM... TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN PASSING QUICKLY THROUGH THE NORTHLAND LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW EVENING...THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES TONIGHT...AND THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE WAVY QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TODAY ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE CONUS WITH SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE ERN PACIFIC. THE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW THAT PUSHED INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP HAS ENDED OVER THE NORTHLAND. A COLD NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP TOO MUCH WITH A ROBUST SUPPLY OF LOW/MID CLOUDS. ONE CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FZDZ ACROSS THE NRN CNTYS INTO THE ARROWHEAD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT DRY AIR ALOFT WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE NW. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMP/DWPT PROFILES TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FZDZ. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE LACK OF THE PRESENCE OF ANY KIND OF LOW LEVEL FORCING. THE LATEST NAM AND GFS ARE BOTH SHOWING WEAK 100-850MB OMEGA ACROSS THE NORTH. WHETHER IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO FORCE DRIZZLE OUT OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR. THE NEXT CONCERN IS ANOTHER INCOMING 500MB S/W EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE ONCE AGAIN SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE FOR FZRA OR SNOW ACROSS THE SWRN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING AND HAVE A LIMITED AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SO NOT EXPECTING VERY MUCH AT ALL IN TERMS OF QPF. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WELL ABOVE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS THIS EVENING IN THE 20S. AVERAGE LOWS ARE USUALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. TOMORROWS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE SOUTH...TO THE LOWER 30S TO THE NORTH. THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD CLEAR OUT MORE THAN EXPECTED TOMORROW...LIKE TODAY...AND TEMPERATURES COULD BE 4-6 DEG WARMER THAN EXPECTED...SO WILL NEED TO GET A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CLOUD COVER. AT THIS TIME...WENT PESSIMISTIC WITH THE CLOUD COVER... FOLLOWING MORE ALONG THE LINES OF THE NAM AND GFS. LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS INTO ALBERTA EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE FLOW TAKING ON A REX OR HIGH OVER LOW BLOCKING LOOK BY THE WEEKEND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE STORM THE GFS/GEM HAD AFFECTING A PORTION OF OUR SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE WEEKEND IS NOW FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. THE UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH. THE ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT STRONGER WITH THE WAVE...AND BRINGS IN SOME MUCH COLDER AIR BY TUESDAY...HOWEVER THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE FROM THE 00Z EC RUN AND WE DIDN'T BUY INTO THAT SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A SHORTWAVE OR TWO STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT PRECIP...WE HAVE A DRY FORECAST GOING THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH MILD TEMPERATURES DROPPING A BIT LATE IN THE PERIOD. && .POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 20 34 21 35 / 10 10 20 10 INL 19 33 19 34 / 10 20 10 10 BRD 22 38 20 38 / 10 20 10 10 HYR 23 36 21 38 / 10 10 20 10 ASX 24 34 23 38 / 10 10 20 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && SHORT TERM...EOM AVIATION...EOM
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 235 PM CST TUE JAN 31 2012 MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-011130- KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE- NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE- SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA- SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN- CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON- BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE- 235 PM CST TUE JAN 31 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE ARROWHEAD. LOCAL ROADWAYS COULD BECOME SLIPPERY IN SOME SPOTS. USE CAUTION WHEN DRIVING TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY A WEAK FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BRING WITH IT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. THE BEST CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN WILL EXIST SOUTH AND WEST OF HIGHWAY TWO IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. TENTINGER MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
5 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Severe drought conditions have continued in eastern parts of the area.
Severe drought conditions have continued in eastern parts of the area.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Minnesota in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Minnesota, February 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 363948, 363949, 363950, 363951, 363952.