Drought in Hawaii, January 1 to 31, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST SAT DEC 31 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A DISSIPATING FRONT NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL
HELP THE TRADES TO BUILD BACK IN A BIT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY
NEXT WEEK...KEEPING TRADES ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS AT TIMES...THOUGH
THE INTERIOR SECTIONS MAY SEE SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AS
WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE THE DISSIPATING FRONT MAY HAVE FINALLY STALLED NORTH OF
THE ISLANDS AT TIME. AS SUCH...DO NOT EXPECT THE CLOUDS FROM THIS
FRONT TO HAVE IMPACT ON THE ISLANDS WEATHER. ON THE OTHER HAND...
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED A BIT OVER THE NORTH ISLANDS EARLIER THIS
EVENING...AHEAD OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT. THERE IS ALSO A BATCH OF
LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING JUST NORTHEAST OF MAUI COUNTY AND WINDWARD BIG
ISLAND. THESE CLOUDS ARE NOT PRODUCING MUCH PRECIPITATION...AS
INDICATED BY THE LATEST RAINFALL REPORTS. BUT THEN THESE CLOUDS WILL
KEEP SKIES A LITTLE MORE CLOUDY OVER THE SOUTHERN ISLANDS THROUGH
THE REST OF TONIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE DISSIPATING FRONT
HAS BROUGHT SLIGHTLY STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE ISLANDS THIS
EVENING...AND THESE WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTING TO HOLD THROUGH THE
NEW YEARS DAYS. THUS HOPEFULLY THERE IS ENOUGH AIR FLOW FOR A DECENT
SMOKE DISPERSION FROM THE FIREWORK CELEBRATIONS.

LATEST FORECAST CHARTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE WEATHER
SITUATION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...IN WHICH A SURFACE RIDGE
WILL REMAIN NEAR THE ISLANDS THROUGH MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE THERE IS
ENOUGH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN TO KEEP
TRADE WINDS AROUND. ON THE OTHER HAND...WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK
ENOUGH TO ALLOW DAY TIME SEA BREEZES AND NIGHT TIME LAND BREEZES
BECOMING MORE PROMINENT. AIR MASS WILL REMAIN STABLE IN THE ISLAND
VICINITY...THUS RAINFALL...IF ANY...WILL BE LIMITED. THE MODELS ARE
ALSO IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT APPROACHING WEAK FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOOKS LIKE
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING FRONT MAY LEAD TO A LITTLE
MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM THE ISLANDS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ON THE OTHER HAND...THERE ARE DISAGREEMENT IN HOW MUCH WINDS THE
ISLANDS WILL SEE AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES NEAR THE NORTHERN ISLANDS.
SHALL KEEP THE CURRENT FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW AND SHALL MAKE
ADJUSTMENT WHEN ALL THE NEWER MODELS ARE AVAILABLE.

STILL LOOK LIKE STRONGER TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN TOWARDS THE LATER
PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS ALL MODELS SHOW STRONG HIGH REBUILDING FAR
NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS THEN.

&&

.MARINE...
A NEW NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BUILD RAPIDLY ON NEW
YEARS DAY...WHICH WILL BOOST SURF HEIGHTS NEAR THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY THRESHOLD ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF
KAUAI...NIIHAU AND OAHU...AND NORTH FACING SHORES OF MOLOKAI AND
MAUI. THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE
RISING SURF FROM THIS SWELL...WHICH HAS AN AZIMUTH OF 330 DEGREES.
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY BEGINS AT 600 AM NEW YEARS DAY...AND
CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS SWELL WILL ALSO PRODUCE COMBINED SEAS IN EXCESS OF 10 FT FOR
MOST WATERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY.

ANOTHER LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
TUESDAY...WHICH WOULD BRING WARNING LEVEL SURF TO THE ISLANDS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS NEXT SWELL AND THE INCREASING
TRADE WINDS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VERY ROUGH SEAS AND WIDESPREAD
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH SMOKE FROM THE FIREWORKS MAY LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR OR
EVEN IFR VIS CONDITIONS DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS OF 2011 AS WELL AS
THE FIRST HOUR IN 2012. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS WINDWARD BIG
ISLAND...WHERE LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WILL BRING MVFR CEILING
CONDITIONS AT TIMES. AIR MASS IS STABLE.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU
KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-WINDWARD
HALEAKALA-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST.

&&

MARINE...HOUSTON
DISCUSSION/AVIATION...HUI