Drought in Hawaii, February 1 to 29, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST TUE JAN 31 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
THE TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A
FRONT APPROACHES KAUAI FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY
STALL AND WEAKEN NORTH OF KAUAI BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE ALOHA STATE. A SURFACE HIGH MOVING
NORTH OF THE FRONT MAY BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WINDS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND...BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT WETTER CONDITIONS AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING EAST NORTHEAST TO WEST SOUTHWEST ORIENTED SURFACE RIDGE
IS LOCATED ABOUT 180 MILES NORTH OF LIHUE. AS A RESULT...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO DECREASE ACROSS THE ISLANDS. FOR
EXAMPLE...THE 24 HOUR PRESSURE CHANGES AT MOST STATIONS ACROSS THE
ISLANDS WERE MINUS 2 MILLIBARS. THIS RIDGE WAS BEING PUSHED DOWN
CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS BY A FRONT...WHICH IS LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES
NORTHWEST OF LIHUE. THIS FRONT IS MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 20
MPH.

ALOFT...SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS ABOVE THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS ACCORDING TO WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS IS DUE TO A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE STATE. THIS IS MAINTAINING VERY STABLE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE EARLY THIS EVENING. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THESE CLOUDS.

AS THE FRONT FAR NORTHWEST OF KAUAI CONTINUES TO ADVANCE CLOSER TO
KAUAI FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE DOWN CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS. THIS WILL
CAUSE THE TRADE WINDS TO REMAIN WEAK THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL STALL ABOUT
150 MILES NORTH OF KAUAI WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A 1024 MB BUBBLE HIGH
MOVING EASTWARD NORTH OF THIS STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING A
SLIGHTLY INCREASE IN TRADE WINDS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STAY NORTH
OF THE STATE BEFORE IT IS ABSORBED BY ANOTHER FRONT PASSING FURTHER
NORTH OF THE STATE FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...THIS SECOND FRONT WILL PUSH THE SURFACE RIDGE BACK TO A
POSITION JUST NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON FRIDAY. THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE STATE WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS TO THE ISLAND CHAIN.
EXPECT LOCAL NIGHT TIME LAND AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
DURING THIS LIGHT WIND REGIME. THIS WILL ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CLOUD BUILD UPS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MOST ISLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOONS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT.

THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC BASIN FROM LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BASED ON THE LATEST OUTPUT FROM THESE
MODELS...THIS COULD PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS AT LEAST ONE FRONT PUSHES DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN.
EVEN THOUGH THESE MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...
THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED WEATHER TO GET INTO THE SPECIFIC TIMING AND
IMPACTS WE MIGHT EXPECT. HOWEVER...THIS APPEARS TO BE A MUCH WETTER
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING DURING
RECENT WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL TRADE FLOW WILL BRING BROKEN LOW CIGS
TO WINDWARD SECTIONS...ALTHOUGH ONLY ISOL MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS SLOWLY TRENDING DOWN EARLY THIS
EVENING. BUOY 51101 IS NOW SHOWING A SWELL HEIGHT OF 9 TO 10 FEET
WITH A PERIOD OF 15 SECONDS. THE WAIMEA BAY BUOY IS SHOWING THE
SWELL IS 8 TO 9 FEET SWELL WITH A PERIOD OF 15 SECONDS. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ELEVATED SURF ALONG NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU...KAUAI...OAHU AND MOLOKAI...FOR NORTH
FACING SHORES OF MAUI...AND FOR WEST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG
ISLAND. THIS HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURF WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THE NORTHWEST SWELL COMBINED WITH DIMINISHING TRADE WIND GENERATED
WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ELEVATED SEAS ACROSS MOST HAWAIIAN
WATERS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY /SCA/ IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR ALL HAWAIIAN WATERS...EXCEPT
MAALAEA BAY.

A REINFORCING NORTHWEST SWELL ARRIVING THURSDAY WILL CAUSE SURF
HEIGHTS TO INCREASE NEAR THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG MOST
NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF THE SMALLER HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A MUCH LARGER NORTHWEST SWELL
ARRIVING SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BOOST SURF HEIGHTS TO NEAR WARNING
LEVELS FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 600 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU AND MOLOKAI...FOR NORTH FACING
SHORES OF MAUI...AND FOR WEST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 600 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS...EXCEPT MAALAEA BAY.

&&

HOUSTON