Coastal Flood in Florida, June 26, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
259 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY-THURSDAY)...
THE EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS AND OBSERVATIONS SHOWED TROPICAL
STORM DEBBY CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO OVER OR
AROUND THE APALACHICOLA BAY REGION WITH DEEP MOIST SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING TO ITS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA.
WITH VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT EXPECTED OVER THE FOLLOWING 24 HR
PERIOD...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. MODELS SEEM TO
BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AND GENERALLY
TAKE DEBBY EWD ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...THEN EMERGING OUT INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC SOMETIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EAST COAST AND ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROP SOUTH. SIMILAR THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE
LATEST WRF MODEL REFLECTIVITIES CONTINUE TO SHOW INTERVALS WITH
NARROW BANDS OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH DEBBY SWEEPING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA. AS THESE BANDS QUICKLY PROGRESS EWD
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...BRIEF TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT
CONSIDERING THE LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES NOTED WITHIN THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
LOCAL AREA FROM NAPLES TO THE LAKE REGION.

FOR RAINFALL...THE LATEST HPC DAY 1-3 GUIDANCE INDICATES TOTALS
REACHING THE 2-4 INCH MARK OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA.
HOWEVER...THE GFS/NAM/GRIDDED MOS TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
CONSIDERABLY LOWER...RANGING FROM A HALF TO AN INCH IN THE
GFS/NAM TO 1.5 TO 2.5 IN THE MOS SOLUTION. CONSIDERING THESE
DIFFERENCES AND THE LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE ...WILL SETTLE WITH
MORE OF A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS WHICH OUTPUT TOTALS REACHING
THE 1-2 INCH RANGE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS REACHING THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE
PERIODICALLY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GULF COAST LOCATIONS WHERE
EVEN HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT-WEEKEND)...
DESPITE SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS
...ALL GENERALLY INDICATE DEBBY CONTINUING ENE AWAY FROM THE
REGION WITH DRIER AIR SPREADING INTO THE AREA DUE TO A DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH. AS A RESULT...WILL TRIM BACK THE CLOUD
COVERAGE/RAINFALL CHANCES BACK TOWARD NORMAL AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE BUT BKN050-100 CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. BANDS OF SHRA WILL ALSO CONTINUE
ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. DEBBY AND THERE COULD BE A BRIEF MVFR
CIG/VSBY BUT TIMING HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. SSW WIND AT ALL TERMINALS
WITH GUSTS OVER 20KT AFT 13-14Z.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AS TROPICAL STORM DEBBY SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS DEBBY EXITS TO THE
NORTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  78  89  79 / 50 50 60 50
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  81  89  80 / 40 40 50 40
MIAMI            88  80  89  80 / 40 40 50 40
NAPLES           88  78  88  78 / 60 50 60 50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL COLLIER.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR BISCAYNE
     BAY-COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD
     BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-LAKE OKEECHOBEE-WATERS FROM DEERFIELD
     BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO THE
     TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET
     TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT
     20 NM-GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL
     EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...85/AG
AVIATION/RADAR...30/KOB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
515 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
270030-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
515 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012

...RIP CURRENT RISK BOTH COASTS...
...A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE...
...A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO ALSO POSSIBLE...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: A SOUTHWEST WIND OF 20 TO 25 MPH ALONG THE COAST OF
COLLIER COUNTY WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. THERE
WILL ALSO BE MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES
DUE TO THE ROUGH SURF.

THUNDERSTORMS: A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PRIMARY
RISKS OF AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE, BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS.

TORNADOES: ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WEST OF NAPLES AND
MOST OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA EXCLUDING THE BROWARD AND
MIAMI-DADE METROPOLITAN AREAS.

WIND: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL SOUTH FLORIDA
WATERS FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IN
ADDITION, THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH.

WAVES: SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 7 TO 10 FOOT RANGE WITH OCCASIONAL
HIGHER SEAS POSSIBLE OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS, WELL WEST OF
NAPLES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE AT THE COASTAL COLLIER
COUNTY BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE WIND WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AT AROUND 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A CONTINUED RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MONDAY WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACTS OF OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER
INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WIND AND
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.