Excessive Heat in South Dakota, June 26 to 27, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1112 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2012

.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 1112 AM CDT/
A BANK OF CLOUDS ALONG OUR WESTERN...NORTHERN AND EASTERN BORDERS
HAVE HELD BACK TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING TOO QUICKLY THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE TAPPED INTO SOME
FAIRLY HUMID CONDITIONS WITH DEWPOINTS HOVERING IN THE LOW TO MID
60S ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. 12Z OAX SOUNDING DEPICTED
VERY WARM +22C MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES EFFECTIVELY CAPPING
CONDITIONS. WITH THE CLOUD DECK RAPIDLY ERODING OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS...EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES TO JUMP SHARPLY THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS WITH HIGHS AROUND THE CENTURY MARK PROBABLE INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DEWPOINTS UNLIKELY TO
MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON...THE HEAT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS VALID WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 TO 105. DID LOWER
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO OUT WEST GIVEN THE SLOWER PACE OF
WARMING...BUT OVERALL FORECAST IS WELL ON TRACK. THE EASTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES MAY BE A BIT MARGINAL BUT THEY SHOULD FALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO
CRITERIA TO LEAVE COVERAGE AREA AS IS.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL GUST TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES TODAY DECREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS
TONIGHT. A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO START WORKING INTO THE
WESTERN CWA AFTER 12Z WITH WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AND BREEZY IN ITS
WAKE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT/
NEARLY AN IDEAL SET UP TODAY FOR EXTREMELY WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY.  CLOUD COVER AND WINDS HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE AND CONVECTION NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY AS TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA
THIS MORNING MOVES INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.  GULF IS FORTUNATELY
CUT OFF...BUT STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE POISED TO THE SOUTH WITH
UPPER 60 TO NEAR 70 DEGREE DEW POINTS. DRY AIRMASS EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST AND BE REPLACE BY MUCH MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. MIXING WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED TODAY WITH
STOUT ELEVATED INVERSION NEAR 900 MB.  THIS WILL TRAP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND MAKE IT A VERY
UNCOMFORTABLE DAY ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE RAISED HIGHS EVER SO
SLIGHTLY IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TODAY...AND THUS HAVE EXPANDED
HEAT ADVISORY ACROSS THE WEST.

FOR TONIGHT...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES QUITE MILD
ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE ALTERED GOING LOWS VERY LITTLE ACROSS THE
AREA.

MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA APPEAR TO BE EAST OF FRONT MUCH OF THE
DAY. AM FLIRTING WITH HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EAST OF A LINE FROM
YANKTON TO WINDOM FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT DID NOT ISSUE QUITE YET TO
KEEP CONFUSION TO A MINIMUM.

MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSHING THE SURFACE FRONT SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER...ELEVATED FRONT
REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA.  SOME OF THE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK WAVE MAY TRY TO MOVE ACROSS THE BOUNDARY
WHILE OTHER SOLUTIONS REMAIN DRY.  STRUGGLED TO DETERMINE WHETHER IT
WAS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK OR NOT...AND ADDED SMALL POP ACROSS SOUTHERN
EDGE OF FORECAST AREA NEAR THE ELEVATED BOUNDARY WHERE CIN IS
MINIMIZED.

MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING OUT THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA IN QUASI NORTHWEST FLOW. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK
INTO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
MN...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SD...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SDZ038-050-052-053-057>060-063>065-068.

&&

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