Drought conditions remained in a steady state across much of western Colorado in February as most climate stations reported near to slightly above normal precipitation amounts during the month. Although locations in the northwest, Grand Valley and central mountains received below normal precipitation amounts, for the most part drought conditions did not expand or worsen.
Every event with a place to put it; 19 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
Drought conditions remained in a steady state across much of western Colorado in February as most climate stations reported near to slightly above normal precipitation amounts during the month. Although locations in the northwest, Grand Valley and central mountains received below normal precipitation amounts, for the most part drought conditions did not expand or worsen.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 31, 10:06 PM MST, 1 hour 54 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 1006 PM MST TUE JAN 31 2012 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT MINIMAL QPF OVER SAN JUANS THIS AFTN AND EVENING AS A WEAK TROF MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. THE TROF HAS CAUSED PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS FOR MOST AREAS THIS MORNING AND AFTN AND THE GOING FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD AS WEBCAMS AND VIS SATELLITE SHOWS SOME DENSE CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE SAN JUANS AND ADJACENT AREAS. SO...KEPT SCHC SNOW SHOWERS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SAN JUANS WITH VERY MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH...EXPECTED. REMAINING AREAS WILL SEE CLOUDS THROUGH 8PM OR SO. BY MIDNIGHT...HGTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE AS A QUICK MOVING RIDGE BUILDS IN. BY DAYBREAK...THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CWA WITH HGT FALLS EXPECTED BY NOON. GFS ALSO PREDICTS CLOUDS UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE WITH SATURATED LAYERS FROM H5-H3 SO SOME CIRRUS EXPECTED EVEN WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN. THINGS START GETTING TRICKY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE MODELS STILL UNABLE TO AGREE ON SAME SOLUTION. THE JET STREAM WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THIS PERIOD RESULTING IN A DEEP TROF WITH THE NAM CLOSING OFF A SFC LOW OVER 4 CORNERS WHILE THE GFS KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE REGION UNTIL THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE FRONT RANGE. SEVERAL CONCERNS THOUGH: DOES LOW CLOSE OFF ON WESTERN SLOPE. IF IT DOES...SYSTEM WILL SLOW AND PRODUCE MORE PRECIP. IF NOT...LOWER AMTS OF QPF ARE EXPECTED. ADD TO THE MIX...ECMWF WHICH DOES CLOSE OFF LOW AND GREATLY SLOWS DOWN LATERAL MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM. ATTM...NAM LOOKS TO BE OUTLIER SINCE 12Z AND 18Z RUNS ARE FAIRLY DIFFERENT. OTHER CONCERNS INCLUDE LATEST 18Z NAM12 RUN LOWERING PRECIP AMTS FOR ENTIRE CWA...WILL THIS TREND CONTINUE WITH FUTURE RUNS. ON THE OTHER HAND...DYNAMICS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE WITH STRONG QG VERTICAL VELOCITY OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AS REPRESENTED BY TIME HEIGHTS. CONVERGENT SIGNATURE BTWN H85 AND H7 ALSO APPARENT WHICH GENERALLY AIDS LIFT CAUSING MORE SNOWFALL. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS SO BUMPED UP POPS CONSIDERABLY STARTING APPROX MID THUR THROUGH FRI MORNING. ALSO BUMPED UP SNOW AMTS TO PUT MOST MTNS IN 6 TO 8 INCH RANGE WITH THE CAVEAT THAT FUTURE SHIFTS WILL BE ABLE TO SCALE BACK OR INCREASE AMTS AS CONCENSUS GROWS. NO HIGHLIGHTS WITH AFTN PACKAGE AS CONFIDENCE STILL NOT THAT GREAT BUT PRIMED FOR WHEN/IF THEY ARE ISSUED. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THU NIGHT/FRI AND WILL REINFORCE THE LOW CIRCULATION TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY. THIS IS A MORE FAVORABLE FLOW REGIME FOR SNOW PRODUCTION AS COMPARED TO THE EASTERLY FLOW FROM EARLIER. HOWEVER...MOISTURE ON THE WANE BY THU EVENING SO A DOWNTURN IN PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED. THAT SAID...THERE MAY BE SOME LOCAL AREAS THAT CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY SNOW THROUGH THE EVENING AT LEAST. ONE AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE UNCOMPAGHRE GORGE WHICH IS QUITE SUSCEPTIBLE TO A MOIST NORTH FLOW AND WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BECOME TRAPPED. ALSO EXPECT LIKELY POPS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE MORE PLENTIFUL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON THE BIG PICTURE EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT THE DETAILS REMAIN SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. THEN BY LATE FRI THE DISCREPANCIES BEGIN TO GROW. IT DOES LOOK LIKE DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE BEGINNING ON SAT AS THE MAIN LOW CENTER CLOSES OFF OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS CUT OFF LOW WILL BE ALMOST SURROUNDED BY BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS. THE ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER IN MOVING THE LOW EASTWARD...HOWEVER THE GFS SHOWS MORE TRAILING ENERGY ON OUR SIDE OF THE DIVIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SO A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN THIS UNCERTAIN FLOW. WITH TIME A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST TO EASTERN CONUS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. ENERGY CONTINUES TO TRY AND UNDERCUT THE RIDGE WITH POOR MODEL AGREEMENT. FOR THE MOST PART DRY CONDITIONS DOMINATE IN ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER THE 12Z ECMWF DOES SHOW A BRUSH-BY OVER THE NORTH ON TUE...BUT THIS SHORTWAVE NOT RESOLVED IN THE PREVIOUS RUN. && .AVIATION /FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE/... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON AVIATION. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...NONE. UT...NONE. && SHORT TERM...TGR LONG TERM....EH AVIATION.....TGJT
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 340 AM MST TUE JAN 31 2012 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-011130- ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-ARCHES/GRAND FLAT-CANYONLANDS/NATURAL BRIDGES- CENTRAL COLORADO RIVER BASIN- CENTRAL GUNNISON AND UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER BASIN- CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER BASIN-DEBEQUE TO SILT CORRIDOR- EASTERN UINTA BASIN-EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS- ELKHEAD AND PARK MOUNTAINS-FLAT TOPS- FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER- GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS- GRAND VALLEY-LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS-LOWER YAMPA RIVER BASIN- NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER- ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS-SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-SOUTHEAST UTAH- SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-TAVAPUTS PLATEAU- UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE-UPPER GUNNISON RIVER VALLEY- UPPER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS- 340 AM MST TUE JAN 31 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS ...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONLY IMPACT MAY BE AND INCH OR SO OF SNOW OVER THE PASSES ON HIGHWAY 550 AND 145. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY A STRONGER STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LASTING INTO FRIDAY...WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT. MC/CJC
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
19 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Abnormally dry conditions remained in place across the Four Corners region of southwest Colorado in February.
Abnormally dry conditions with pockets of moderate drought remained in place through February across the southwest San Juan Mountains.
Abnormally dry conditions remained in place thorugh February across the northwest San Juan Mountains.
Abnormally dry conditions remained in place across the high desert region of Southwest Colorado in February.
Abnormally dry conditions remained in place across the high plateaus of southwest Colorado in February.
Abnormally dry conditions remained in place through February across the lower valleys of west central Colorado.
Abnormally dry conditions remained in place through February across the Upper Gunnison River Basin.
Abnormally dry conditions with pockets of moderate drought remained in place across the central mountains of western Colorado through February.
Abnormally dry conditions with pockets of moderate drought remained in place across the central mountains of western Colorado through February.
Abnormally dry conditions remained in place through February across the high mesa and mountain region of western Colorado through February.
Abnormally dry conditions remained in place across the upper reaches of the Colorado River Basin through February.
Abnormally dry conditions remained in place across the middle reaches of the Colorado River Basin through February.
Abnormally dry conditions remained in place across the Grand Valley through February.
Abnormally dry conditions remained in place across the high plateau region of northwest Colorado through February.
Abnormally dry conditions with pockets of moderate drought remained in place through February across the Flat Tops Mountains.
Moderate drought conditions remained in place through February across the far northern mountains of western Colorado.
Moderate drought conditions remained in place through February across the upper reaches of the Yampa River Basin.
Moderate drought conditions remained in place across the central Yampa River Basin through February.
Moderate drought conditions remained in place across the high valleys of northwest Colorado through February.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, February 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 371966, 371968, 371970, 371971, 371972, 371975, 371978, 371983, 371984, 371985, 371986, 371995, 371996, 371997, 371999, 372000, 372001, 372002, 372003.