Tornado and High Wind in California, November 30, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
332 AM PST FRI NOV 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS...THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND OWENS
VALLEY WILL SEE PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW...ALONG WITH STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WINDS TODAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY. SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA WILL
ALSO SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO ENJOY MILD
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY. A FINAL
WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MUCH OF THE AREA A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. NEXT
WEEK WILL SEE CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SECOND IN THE SERIES OF
WEATHER DISTURBANCES WAS NEARING THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THIS
MORNING. RADAR DETECTING AN AREA OF ENHANCED RETURNS UP AGAINST THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA NEVADA WEST OF MONO COUNTY.
PRECIPITATION IS SPILLING OVER THE CREST ONTO THE EASTERN SLOPES
AROUND MAMMOTH WITH MAMMOTH LAKES AIRPORT REPORTING LIGHT SNOW. AS
THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE EJECTS INLAND ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA TODAY
THE PRECIPITATION WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA OF INYO
COUNTY...OWENS VALLEY AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. 8 TO 10 INCHES MAY FALL
AT THE CREST...HOWEVER ONLY EXPECT 3 TO 5 INCHES BETWEEN 8000 AND
9500 FEET. LIGHTER POCKETS OF RAIN MAY DEVELOP EAST ACROSS
ESMERALDA...CENTRAL NYE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES. PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF IN THE SIERRA EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE
WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST INTO UTAH BY LATE EVENING. A FEW OF OUR
REPORTING STATIONS WHICH ARE SITED TO BETTER DETECT DOWNSLOPE WINDS
IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA BEGINNING TO RESPOND. LATEST
OBSERVATION FROM OAK CREEK RAWS...NORTHWEST OF INDEPENDENCE REPORTED
A PK GUST OF 57 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY WAS ALREADY IN PLACE FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT WITH THAT LATEST REPORT HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE
WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE OWENS VALLEY TODAY.

AREA WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AND TO SOME
EXTENT THE GUSTY WINDS AS WELL AS WE AWAIT THE FINAL WEATHER
DISTURBANCE. SUNDAY SETTING UP TO BE QUITE SIMILAR TOO TODAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION REACHES NORTHWEST INYO COUNTY SUNDAY
MORNING...AND INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE SNOW LEVEL IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 7500 FEET WITH GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS
FALLING ABOVE 8500 FEET. LIGHTER AREAS OF OF MOSTLY RAIN WILL SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT DURING DURING
THE DAY AND EVENING. COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS PERSIST IN
LINCOLN COUNTY AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS
THE DISTURBANCE QUICKLY SHIFTS INTO THE FOUR CORNER STATES. NO
CHANGE TO THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR WESTERN INYO COUNTY SUNDAY AS
WINDOW OPEN FOR PERIODIC BURSTS OF STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WINDS.

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE UNDER NEARLY ZONAL FLOW.

.LONG TERM...SHORTWAVE TO EXIT THE REGION BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS
A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
REALLY EXPECTED TO COOL MUCH AND WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT READINGS
ABOUT 6-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WEAK RIDGE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL IMPACT THE WEST COAST TUESDAY. LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOW
DOWN AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA AND BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK
DRY FOR OUR CWA. THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IN GENERAL DID LOWER POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT IN DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SOME PRECIPITATION SPREADING EAST THURSDAY.
DID RAISE POPS OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA ALONG WITH THE
LOCAL SOUTHERN NEVADA MOUNTAINS. LIKE PREVIOUS SYSTEMS OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND
WITH 700MB TEMPS ONLY FALLING TO AROUND -2/-3 DEG C OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. THIS MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FRONT WILL
QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED ONCE AGAIN BY A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 12-22KTS THROUGH
MID MORNING...BUT THERE WILL BE LULLS AT TIMES WITH WINDS BETWEEN
7-10KTS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 12-22KTS. BKN-OVC AOA 25K FEET WITH SOME SCT-BKN
LOWER CLOUDS BETWEEN 10-14K FEET AT TIMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH
WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 15-25KTS WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING
WINDS UP TO 30KTS. GUSTS OF 40-50 KTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE SIERRA WITH SNOW LEVELS LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE
7500 FEET. MOUNTAIN PEAKS WILL LIKELY BE OBSCURED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ519-520.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR CAZ519-520.
&&

PIERCE/GORELOW

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