High Wind in California, November 28 to 30, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
359 AM PST WED NOV 28 2012

.DISCUSSION...SERIES OF STORMS TO BRING HIGH IMPACT WEATHER TO
SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. STRONG WINDS, HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN
IMPACTS, BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE FIRST SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA
SITUATED NEAR 40 N AND 133 W WITH A WHAT APPEARS TO BE A DOUBLE
FRONTAL BAND APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. THERE ARE A MYRIAD OF
HEADLINES OUT FOR THIS SYSTEM...NAMELY HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR THE
SHASTA VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE NEAR SUMMER LAKE WITH
A WIND ADVISORY HERE IN THE ROGUE VALLEY (NPWMFR). THE MFR-RDD
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEEN INCREASING ALL NIGHT AND AS THE SYSTEM
OFFSHORE HAS TAKEN ON A NEGATIVE TILT ALIGNING THE FLOW WITH THE
VALLEY...SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE BEGUN HERE AT THE AIRPORT. AN
AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WHEN I WALKED IN LAST EVENING THE TEMPERATURE WAS 37 DEGREES WITH
AREAS OF DENSE FOG, BUT THE TEMP HAS RISEN DRAMATICALLY TO A BALMY
59 DEGREES SINCE THE WINDS BEGAN. AS A RESULT, HAVE INCREASED MAX
TEMPS FOR TODAY IN AREAS THAT WILL HAVE A STRONG DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...MAINLY THE ROGUE AND SHASTA VALLEYS AND TO A LESSER DEGREE
THE UMPQUA BASIN. TEMPERATURES MAY BE HIGHEST THIS MORNING THOUGH
AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY DUE TO THE STRONG OFFSHORE COMPONENT
AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE MODEST RAINFALL ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST CURRY COAST INTO WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. EXPECT A
SIGNIFICANT SHOT OF UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION INTO THE MOUNT SHASTA
REGION TODAY AND THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN
THERE. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE THE MAIN PASSES, BUT MAY GET DOWN
TO ABOUT 4500 FEET. THIS MEANS TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
SNOWMANS SUMMIT ALONG HIGHWAY 89. REFER TO WSWMFR FOR MORE
DETAILS.

AFTER THIS INITIAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON,
THERE WILL BE ABOUT A 6-12 HOUR BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT STRONGER
FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE EVEN STRONGER
WINDS AND ALOT OF RAIN. MODELS PEG SOUTH 925 MB WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND STORM WARNINGS (MWWMFR) ARE IN EFFECT TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. SOUTH
700 MB FLOW IS ALSO 75-85 KT OVER INLAND AREAS SO HAVE MAINTAINED
THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE COAST AND EXPANDED IT INLAND OVER THE
SHASTA VALLEY AND EAST SIDE FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WIND
ADVISORIES WILL ALSO LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOR A MUCH LARGER AREA
THAN TODAY. MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS MAXIMIZED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT
WILL HAVE A SUBTROPICAL TAP. LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES IN JUST 24 HOURS ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST OREGON COAST INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WE ARE EXPECTING CLOSE TO AN INCH OF RAIN
HERE IN MEDFORD. THIS WILL CAUSE AREA STREAMS, CREEKS AND RIVERS
TO RISE RAPIDLY AND URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. FLOOD WATCHES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED. SNOW LEVELS WILL STILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH, SO SNOWFALL
HAZARDS WILL BE RESERVED FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT STILL COULD
LOCALLY IMPACT AREAS ABOVE 4500 FEET NEAR MOUNT SHASTA CITY.

ANOTHER BRIEF LULL IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CORE OF AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SHIFTS SOUTH TOWARD THE SF BAY AREA. BUT THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL THE STORMINESS WILL JUST
RELOAD. IT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST AND MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WITH ADDITIONAL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL TAKE AIM AT THE WEST COAST. THE NEXT IS DUE TO ARRIVE FRIDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER OVER THE WEEKEND. RESIDENTS SHOULD
PREPARE FOR A LONG PERIOD OF STORMY WEATHER WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF RAIN IN SIMILAR AREAS THAT WERE HIT HARD JUST BEFORE
THANKSGIVING. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...A FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TODAY. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE DEEPER
VALLEYS THIS MORNING AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE BUT SURFACE WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT. AT THE COAST...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO POSSIBLE
LATE THIS MORNING WITH A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. EAST SIDE
TERMINALS WILL BECOME VERY WINDY BY THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
TURBULENCE IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE BROAD AREA OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
IMPACTING THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SHASTA AND
ROGUE VALLEYS...AND THE EAST SIDE. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL
LIKELY ONLY AFFECT THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE COAST RANGE AND
CASCADES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ030-031.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     ORZ030-031.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ028.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ORZ022-024.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ORZ021-022.
     HIGH SURF WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ORZ026.

CA...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     CAZ080-082-083.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     CAZ081.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THURSDAY ABOVE 4500 FEET
     FOR CAZ082-083.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ081.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
     FOR CAZ081.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM PST THIS EVENING
     FOR CAZ085.

PZ...STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

SPILDE/STAVISH/BPN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
704 AM PST WED NOV 28 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0703 AM     HEAVY RAIN       NE BROOKINGS            42.06N 124.29W
11/28/2012  M0.22 INCH       CURRY              OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            3 HOUR TOTAL AS OF 7AM.

&&

BPN