Winter Storm, S Sierra Mtns
- When
- November 16, 10:00 AM PST to November 18, 10:00 AM PST
- Where
- S Sierra Mtns forecast zone
- Reported by
- Park/Forest Service
Winter Storm and Flooding in California, November 16 to 18, 2012
An upper-level low drew subtropical moisture over the southern half of California beginning November 15th. This warm, moist airmass kept overnight low several degrees above normal.
Where it happened
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
- Tornadoes
- Tropical storms and surge
- Floods
- Wind
- Hail
- Winter weather
- Heat and drought
- Cold
- Fire, smoke and dust
- Marine and coastal
- Other
The toll
- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 4
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
What happened
The episode as NWS HNX wrote it up.
An upper-level low drew subtropical moisture over the southern half of California beginning November 15th. This warm, moist airmass kept overnight low several degrees above normal. The low at Fresno on the 16th was 58 degrees, tying the record high minimum temperature for the date, last set in 1965. The low at Fresno the next day also was 58 degrees. This broke the record high minimum temperature for November 17th by one degree. The old record had also been set in 1965.
Showers developed over the region on November 17th, as well as a few thunderstorms. One thunderstorm that formed over Madera County lasted for almost three hours as it slowly moved northeast across the county and into the Sierra Nevada foothills. Another thunderstorm dropped heavy rain on Merced County. In the Southern Sierra Nevada, snowfall amounts generally were less than 6 inches, although a couple of sites near the crest reported storm totals around a foot. The cold front that triggered these storms weakened rapidly southward, but sporadic light showers continued across the central California interior into the morning of November 18th.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Hanford, CA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 16, 2:50 AM PST, 7 hours 10 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 16, 2:50 AM PST, 7 hours 10 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
250 AM PST FRI NOV 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING RAIN TO
MOST OF THE REGION AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ENTRAINED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST PROVED DEEPER THAN EXPECTED...AND BROUGHT
LIGHT RAIN TO KERN COUNTY THURSDAY AND TO KINGS AND TULARE COUNTIES
AND THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THURSDAY EVENING. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
CONTINUE OVER THE HANFORD WARNING/FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
AS THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL LOWS
LOCATED WEST OF MONTEREY BAY...NEAR 36N/136W. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
FORECAST THIS LOW TO OPEN INTO A SHORT-WAVE THAT APPROACHES THE
CALIFORNIA COAST TODAY AND MOVES ONSHORE TONIGHT. THIS LOW/WAVE WILL
BRING HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO THE HANFORD WARNING/FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FALLING ON
THE HIGH COUNTRY OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED FROM 18Z /1000 PST/ TODAY TO 00Z SUNDAY
/1600 PST SATURDAY/ ABOVE 7500 FEET FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
FROM KINGS CANYON NORTH...AND ABOVE 8000 FEET FOR THE TULARE COUNTY
MOUNTAINS.
THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED AT APPROXIMATELY 50N/140W...BUT
THE LOW CENTER IS NOT EASY TO LOCATE ON SATELLITE LOOPS. A SERIES OF
VORTICITIES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW MARK THE OVERALL CIRCULATION AND
THE MODELS HAVE AN ELONGATED DOUBLE-LOW FEATURE...INCORPORATING THE
LOW THAT HAD BEEN SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS...WITH A CENTER NORTHWEST
OF THE APPARENT LOW. THIS LOW ALSO IS FORECAST TO OPEN INTO AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WHICH REACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST SATURDAY
AND MOVES INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM...WRF AND GFS FORECAST THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM AS IT COMES ONSHORE...WITH
THE GFS FORECASTING OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN FOR FRESNO FROM THIS
STORM. SUSPECT THIS MAY BE OVERDONE...BUT THE 00Z/06Z MODEL TREND
SUGGESTS THAT THE RFC TOTAL QPF FOR FRESNO OF 0.12 INCH MAY BE ON
THE LOW SIDE AND THIS MORNING/S 15Z QPF MAY BE HIGHER.
A THIRD LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST...REACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS LOW ON THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR WILL BE TO KEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHINESS OVER THE REGION FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WITH A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...PRECIPITATION WILL
STAY MAINLY NORTH OF THE HANFORD WARNING/FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEK...
ALTHOUGH MERCED...MARIPOSA AND WESTERN FRESNO COUNTIES COULD SEE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WITH THE FIRST TWO LOWS TAPPING INTO A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FEED...
THE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM. THE MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT WITH 850-MB TEMPERATURES OVER FRESNO ONLY DROPPING TO
4.0-4.5 C SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
AT 10Z /0200 PST/...MESO-WEST OBSERVATIONS PLACED THE SNOW LEVEL IN
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AT 7000-7500 FEET...AND LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED AS THE WARM MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. THE SNOW LEVEL
WILL FALL SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROUGH...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE 6000 FEET.
&&
.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...AND KERN CO
DESERTS...CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING. AREAS OF MVFR
IN -RA/BR THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.
IN THE SRN SIERNEV AND TEHACHAPI MTNS...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDS
IN CLOUDS/PCPN WITH MTN OBSCURATION THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON FRIDAY NOVEMBER 16 2012...FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING IS
PROHIBITED IN FRESNO...KERN AND KINGS COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 11-16 81:2008 48:1982 58:1965 27:1958
KFAT 11-17 81:2008 49:1994 57:1965 29:1961
KFAT 11-18 80:2008 48:1994 57:1950 27:1961
KBFL 11-16 82:1979 47:1958 58:1965 27:1916
KBFL 11-17 84:2008 48:1964 58:1983 29:1905
KBFL 11-18 83:1926 49:1994 60:1950 28:1921
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM PST
SATURDAY ABOVE 8000 FEET FOR THE THE TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS
/CAZ097/.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM PST
SATURDAY ABOVE 7500 FEET FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM
YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK TO KINGS CANYON /CAZ096/.
&&
PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...BSO
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORDHazardous weather outlook, Nov 16, 4:20 AM PST, 5 hours 40 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA 420 AM PST FRI NOV 16 2012 CAZ096-171230- SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON- 420 AM PST FRI NOV 16 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 7500 FEET IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TODAY TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY. FOR DETAILS PLEASE SEE THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN HANFORD AT SFOWSWHNX. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 7500 FEET REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY. FOR DETAILS PLEASE SEE THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN HANFORD AT SFOWSWHNX. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT OR UNUSUAL CONDITIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. CAZ097-171230- TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS- 420 AM PST FRI NOV 16 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 8000 FEET IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TODAY TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY. FOR DETAILS PLEASE SEE THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN HANFORD AT SFOWSWHNX. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 8000 FEET REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY. FOR DETAILS PLEASE SEE THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN HANFORD AT SFOWSWHNX. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT OR UNUSUAL CONDITIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. SANGER WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
The radar
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
Event by event
2 flood, 1 winter storm, 1 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.
Winter Weather, Tulare Cty Mtns
- When
- November 16, 10:00 AM PST to November 18, 10:00 AM PST
- Where
- Tulare Cty Mtns forecast zone
- Reported by
- Park/Forest Service
Flood, Madera
- When
- November 17, 4:50 PM PST to 5:50 PM PST
- Where
- Madera County, 0.26 mi SW of Borden to 0.91 mi ENE of Borden
- Cause
- Heavy Rain
- Reported by
- Law Enforcement
- Coordinates
- 36.927, -120.033
Flood, Fresno
- When
- November 17, 7:06 PM PST to 7:45 PM PST
- Where
- Fresno County, 3.81 mi E of Friant to 3.91 mi SW of Marshall Station
- Cause
- Heavy Rain
- Reported by
- Law Enforcement
- Coordinates
- 36.987, -119.652
What these are
- Winter Storm
- A storm that brought snow, sleet or freezing rain at warning levels, usually over several hours or days.
- Winter Weather
- Snow, sleet or freezing rain below warning levels that still caused disruption, damage or casualties.
- Flood
- Flooding that develops more slowly than a flash flood: rivers leaving their banks, or water standing over land for an extended time.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
The same day elsewhere
More
Every storm in California in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in California, November 2012
Sources
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 420156, 420158, 420161, 420163.