Extreme Cold in Alaska, March 1 to 2, 2012

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1209 PM AKST WED FEB 29 2012

.DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MAJOR FEATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WHEN MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF
FEATURES APPEAR. BEYOND SUNDAY MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN POSITION
AND STRENGTH OF FEATURES APPEAR. AT 500 MB...TROUGH OF LOW
HEIGHTS REMAINS WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA. A 513 DAM
LOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE
AND MOVE OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA TONIGHT THEN DEEPEN TO A
CLOSED 506 DAM LOW BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN QUASI
STATIONARY INTO SATURDAY. A CLOSED 508 DAM LOW WILL MOVE FROM
THE WESTERN BERING SEA TO OVER COLD BAY BY THURSDAY MORNING.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGHER HEIGHTS WILL TRANSIT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE MAINLAND TODAY TO BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AT 850 MB...WE WILL SEE 4 TO 8 CELSIUS
DEGREE WARMING IN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IN THE INTERIOR
WITH WARM ADVECTION. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A RETURN OF THE
COLD AIR WITH TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS 28 BELOW CELSIUS MOVING
OVER AREAS IN THE INTERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

SURFACE...1047 MB HIGH REMAINS NORTH OF WRANGELL ISLAND AND
WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTHWEST TO THE SIBERIAN COAST AS A 1037 MB
HIGH. A 995 MB LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL WEAKEN AND
EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH A LOW THAT GETS SPUN OFF A 976 MB LOW MOVING
OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC AND ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. THE 976 MB
LOW WILL BE NEAR COLD BAY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT 982 MB. THE SPUN
OFF LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND RAPIDLY DEEPEN TO 978 MB ABSORBING THE LOW NEAR COLD BAY. THE
RESULTANT BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL COVER A MAJOR PORTION
OF MAINLAND ALASKA THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE SIBERIAN HIGH AND THE LOW WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONGER THAN NORMAL WINDS TO MANY AREAS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND NORTHWEST COAST.

ARCTIC SLOPE...COLD AIR IS PACKED IN PRETTY GOOD, NOTHING IN THE
FORESEEABLE TO PUSH IT OUT OF THE AREA THOUGH EXPECT SOME
MODERATION AS THE SIBERIAN HIGH DRIFTS SOUTHWEST. WINDS ARE
FINALLY FALLING OFF...SO WILL END THE WIND CHILL WARNINGS FOR
NOW...BUT EXPECT THEM TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES AGAIN
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S BELOW ALONG THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS
RANGE.

WEST COAST...GRADIENT WINDS WILL BRING WIND CHILL ISSUES TO AREAS
NEAR THE BERING STRAIT AND NORTH OF KOTZEBUE SOUND AS WELL AS THE
UPPER NOATAK VALLEY. SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR FOR
MOST AREAS. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY...THOUGH A FEW ROUGE PATCHES OF STRATUS AND FLURRIES MAY
DRIFT THROUGH THE AREA.

INTERIOR...RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH A SLIGHT
WARMING OF TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. SOME GRADIENT WINDS
WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL AND DRIFTING SNOW ISSUES AT SOME OF THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN THE
INTERIOR ZONES THOUGH A ROUGE PATCH OF STRATUS AND FLURRIES IS
ALWAYS POSSIBLE. COLD AIR ADVECTION NEXT WEEK COULD PUSH
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO AROUND 30 BELOW IN THE MORNINGS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ213-AKZ217-AKZ220.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

SDB FEB 12