Drought in Texas, March 1 to 31, 2012

Name: Drought in Texas, March 1 to 31, 2012
Start: 2012-03-01T00:00
End: 2012-03-31T23:59
Location: Texas

March 1 to 31, 2012 · NWS LUB · 23 events in 23 counties and zones

Lingering exceptional drought (D4) persisted over the central and western South Plains with severe (D2) to extreme (D3) elsewhere. Hall county was the only county in moderate (D1) drought conditions.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 23 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: $2.5 million
Crop damage: $2.5 million
Events: 23

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.

Lingering exceptional drought (D4) persisted over the central and western South Plains with severe (D2) to extreme (D3) elsewhere. Hall county was the only county in moderate (D1) drought conditions. In March, several precipitation events pushed rainfall totals to or above normal for the month. Drought impacts are typically low in late winter and early spring, which are among the driest times of the year on the Texas South Plains, and this period coincides with fairly low water demand.

Dry conditions through the month of February persisted through the early part of March. A strong low pressure system pushed into West Texas from the 18th to the 22nd and brought widespread thunderstorms to the region. Several areas over the southeastern Texas panhandle and the northern Rolling Plains received between two and three inches of rainfall for the month. Elsewhere, less precipitation was observed although amounts were still near normal for March. Some selected totals include 2.28 at Childress, 2.27 at White River Lake and 2.23 at Roaring Springs. Like much of the country east of the Rocky Mountains, March saw temperatures above climatological normals. The average temperature at both Lubbock and Childress were 6.4 and 7.7 degrees above normal respectively. These values placed the month at the second warmest March on record at both Lubbock and Childress. Keetch-Byram Drought Index values remained unchanged from February values. They ranged from 500-600 across the South Plains and northern Rolling Plains with 300-400 across the southern Rolling Plains.

Meteorologically, it appears as though the drought is easing but hydrologic data indicates potential for significant impacts to water supply and agriculture. Soil profiles in the top eight inches have continued to show gradual improvement with deeper soils below eight inch depth remaining largely deprived of significant moisture. Winter wheat producers were nearing harvesting their crop and cotton farmers were prepping for planting. Significant green up occurred over the Rolling Plains through March. Fuels this season have been significantly reduced from last year and only a few large fires have resulted despite several strong wind events.

Economic losses due to drought through March since the drought began were estimated near $2.4 billion.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 29, 11:45 PM CST, 15 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 29, 11:45 PM CST, 15 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1145 PM CST WED FEB 29 2012

.AVIATION...
OCCASIONAL LLWS CONDS REMAIN POSSIBLE AT CDS LATE TONIGHT
UNDERNEATH A 40 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET CENTERED AROUND 1200 FT AGL.
SOME OF THIS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR WILL BEGIN MIXING DOWN BY LATE
MORNING MAINLY AT LBB WHERE FREQUENT WESTERLY GUSTS APPROACHING 40
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED BY MID-AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY BLDU. GREATEST
CHANGE TO EARLIER TAFS WAS TO BOOST WINDS AT LBB AND REDUCE
VISBYS WELL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AIR
SHOULD SECURE EVEN STRONGER MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM ALOFT.
FAVORABLE SWLY WINDS WILL ALSO TAP A BROAD SOURCE REGION OF BLDU.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST WED FEB 29 2012/

SHORT TERM...
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE
MORNING STARTED OFF A BIT BREEZY ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS.  WIND
SPEEDS HAVE SLOWLY BEEN DECREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED.  SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR AND WIND
SPEEDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD HELP COOL MIN
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY MORNING BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE NICE WEATHER TODAY WILL NOT STICK AROUND FOR
TOMORROW.

LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL START TO OCCUR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE OK PANHANDLE WHICH WILL DEEPEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.  WIND WILL SWING MORE OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST IN
RESPONSE AND INCREASE IN SPEED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...
MODELS HAVE DECREASED SPEEDS JUST A BIT WHILE MOS VALUES REMAIN
BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KTS.  VERY DRY AIR WILL MIX IN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND A BIT OF DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL HELP TO
BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.  MORE INFORMATION IS
CONTAINED IN THE FIRE WEATHER AFD SECTION.  PEAK WIND SPEEDS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAY ALSO ONCE AGAIN STIR UP SOME DUST...ALTHOUGH
SPEEDS WILL BE A BIT SLOWER THAN TUESDAY SO DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE AS
MUCH DUST IN THE AIR.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
BROAD UA DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE NW PACIFIC IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE
ESE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES/SOUTH PLAINS FRIDAY...AND NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THUS EVOLVING
FLOW ALOFT FROM NEAR ZONAL TO NW FLOW. THE DISTURBANCE/S ASSOCIATED
FROPA IS SHOWN TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FRIDAY
EVENING...AS A 1030 MB SFC RIDGE NW OF THE SOUTH PLAINS OOZES SE
TOWARDS THE FA. MODEL FORECASTS HINT AT A TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND THUS BREEZY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...IN ADDITION
TO RATHER BREEZY WNW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT /MOST GUIDANCE
HINTING AT 35 KTS/. THIS DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN 60 DEGREE TEMPS AND HENCE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DROPPING TO AOA 15 PERCENT. AS A RESULT...CONCERNS FOR FIRE
WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE ELEVATED FOR AREAS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WHICH OF COURSE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT FRONTAL
SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION. FOR FURTHER DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. THE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH HINTS OF VERY LIGHT QPF VALUES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN LOCALES PER THE ECMWF...GFS AND NAM
SOLUTIONS. NOT QUITE SOLD ON INTRODUCING MENTIONABLE POPS ATTM AS
PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBITED DRY LOW LEVELS /PWATS LESS THAN
0.30 INCHES/ BUT MOISTENED MID LEVELS SUGGESTING AN INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC RIDGE LINGERING
NEARBY THE REGION ON SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS
/MID TO UPPER 50S/.

THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT BY SUNDAY AS
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LEE TROUGHING NORTH OF THE REGION INDUCE
PERIODS OF AFTERNOON BREEZES. FURTHERMORE...UA RIDGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST TOWARDS AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING HEIGHT FIELDS THUS SUGGESTING A
GRADUAL WARMING OF TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S BY TUESDAY. BY MID-WEEK
ANOTHER UA DISTURBANCE PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS THE HIGH/CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL DIVE A NORTHERLY FROPA ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. FORECAST MODELS MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS ALONG THE
FROPA ATTM...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL RUNS FOR ANY
NOTICEABLE CHANGES.

FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.  MAX AFTERNOON
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 40 TO 45 MPH.  MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP
BELOW 10 PERCENT AREAWIDE SHORTLY AFTER NOON AND REMAIN BELOW 15
PERCENT 9 PM OR SO.  WIND SPEEDS WILL START TO DECREASE WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  WILL GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING AREAWIDE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AS CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT CRITERIA WILL BE MET
AREAWIDE.

FORECAST SOLUTIONS DISPLAY A COLD FRONT STALLING OUT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL INDUCE BREEZY NORTH WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND BREEZY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THUS...LOCALES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL EXPERIENCE
TEMPERATURES AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING TO 15 PERCENT. FURTHERMORE...20-FOOT WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF NEARING/EQUATING 20 MPH...THUS
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. AS SUCH...ADDITIONAL PRODUCT HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE
WARRANTED IN THE NEAR FUTURE ESPECIALLY IF WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE SAME OR INCREASE AS IS HINTED AT BY MOS
GUIDANCE /35 KTS/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        31  75  31  53  23 /   0   0   0  10  10
TULIA         33  76  35  51  26 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     34  79  36  57  28 /   0   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     30  80  37  59  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       33  80  39  60  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   31  79  36  63  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    32  81  37  63  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     37  83  42  59  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          40  85  43  65  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     40  87  44  69  34 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CST THURSDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>044.

&&

93

Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 29, 3:06 PM CST, 8 hours 54 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
306 PM CST WED FEB 29 2012

TXZ021>044-011200-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
306 PM CST WED FEB 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

GUSTY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. AS A RESULT...A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FROM 11 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 7 PM THURSDAY EVENING.
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

JORDAN

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

23 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Bailey

When: March 1, 12:00 AM CST to March 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Bailey forecast zone
Reported by: Other Federal Agency
Coordinates: 34.069, -102.830 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Briscoe

When: March 1, 12:00 AM CST to March 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Briscoe forecast zone
Reported by: Other Federal Agency
Coordinates: 34.530, -101.209 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Castro

When: March 1, 12:00 AM CST to March 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Castro forecast zone
Reported by: Other Federal Agency
Coordinates: 34.530, -102.262 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Childress

When: March 1, 12:00 AM CST to March 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Childress forecast zone
Reported by: Other Federal Agency
Coordinates: 34.529, -100.208 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Cochran

When: March 1, 12:00 AM CST to March 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Cochran forecast zone
Reported by: Other Federal Agency
Coordinates: 33.604, -102.828 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Cottle

When: March 1, 12:00 AM CST to March 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Cottle forecast zone
Reported by: Other Federal Agency
Coordinates: 34.078, -100.279 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Crosby

When: March 1, 12:00 AM CST to March 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Crosby forecast zone
Reported by: Other Federal Agency
Coordinates: 33.615, -101.300 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Dickens

When: March 1, 12:00 AM CST to March 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Dickens forecast zone
Reported by: Other Federal Agency
Coordinates: 33.617, -100.779 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Floyd

When: March 1, 12:00 AM CST to March 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Floyd forecast zone
Reported by: Other Federal Agency
Coordinates: 34.072, -101.303 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Garza

When: March 1, 12:00 AM CST to March 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Garza forecast zone
Reported by: Other Federal Agency
Coordinates: 33.180, -101.298 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Hale

When: March 1, 12:00 AM CST to March 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Hale forecast zone
Reported by: Other Federal Agency
Coordinates: 34.071, -101.827 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Hockley

When: March 1, 12:00 AM CST to March 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Hockley forecast zone
Reported by: Other Federal Agency
Coordinates: 33.608, -102.343 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Kent

When: March 1, 12:00 AM CST to March 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Kent forecast zone
Reported by: Other Federal Agency
Coordinates: 33.181, -100.778 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, King

When: March 1, 12:00 AM CST to March 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: King forecast zone
Reported by: Other Federal Agency
Coordinates: 33.617, -100.256 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Lamb

When: March 1, 12:00 AM CST to March 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Lamb forecast zone
Reported by: Other Federal Agency
Coordinates: 34.069, -102.352 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Lubbock

When: March 1, 12:00 AM CST to March 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Lubbock forecast zone
Property damage: $2.5 million
Crop damage: $2.5 million
Reported by: Other Federal Agency
Coordinates: 33.610, -101.820 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Lynn

When: March 1, 12:00 AM CST to March 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Lynn forecast zone
Reported by: Other Federal Agency
Coordinates: 33.177, -101.816 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Motley

When: March 1, 12:00 AM CST to March 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Motley forecast zone
Reported by: Other Federal Agency
Coordinates: 34.074, -100.780 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Parmer

When: March 1, 12:00 AM CST to March 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Parmer forecast zone
Reported by: Other Federal Agency
Coordinates: 34.530, -102.784 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Stonewall

When: March 1, 12:00 AM CST to March 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Stonewall forecast zone
Reported by: Other Federal Agency
Coordinates: 33.179, -100.253 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Swisher

When: March 1, 12:00 AM CST to March 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Swisher forecast zone
Reported by: Other Federal Agency
Coordinates: 34.530, -101.735 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Terry

When: March 1, 12:00 AM CST to March 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Terry forecast zone
Reported by: Other Federal Agency
Coordinates: 33.174, -102.335 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Yoakum

When: March 1, 12:00 AM CST to March 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Yoakum forecast zone
Reported by: Other Federal Agency
Coordinates: 33.173, -102.828 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

What these are

Drought: A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Texas in 2012 Every state in 2012 This day in weather history Warnings in Texas, March 2012

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 363977, 363978, 363979, 363980, 363981, 363982, 363983, 363984, 363985, 363986, 363987, 363988, 363989, 363990, 363991, 363992, 363993, 363994, 363995, 363996, 363997, 363998, 363999.