High Wind and Strong Wind in Washington, March 2, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 AM PST WED MAR 2 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE TODAY...
BRINGING STRONG WINDS TO THE COAST AND RAIN TO ALL AREAS. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL KEEP THINGS COOL AND SHOWERY THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONT
WILL BRING RAIN AND WIND FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE STORM TRACK SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AFTER A BREAK BEHIND THE WARM FRONT LAST NIGHT...
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN FILLING BACK IN EARLY THIS MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE ONSHORE. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND TODAY
WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON.

A SUB 970 MB SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH TO NORTH NEAR 130W THIS
MORNING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE COAST AND A
HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS STRONG FARTHER INLAND...PERHAPS SOME ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
NORTHWEST INTERIOR LATER THIS MORNING BUT THE GRADIENTS LOOK A
LITTLE TOO EASTERLY TO GET EXCITED. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY EAST WINDS IN THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING.

WITH FLOW ALOFT MORE SOUTHERLY TODAY AND THE MAIN UPPER LOW STAYING
OFFSHORE...MOUNTAINS NOT GETTING EVEN ADVISORY AMOUNTS ANYMORE. SNOW
WILL PICK UP A BIT LATER TODAY WITH AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT IT
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ENOUGH TO EVEN WARRANT AN ADVISORY...EXCEPT
PERHAPS AT MOUNT BAKER. WILL END THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
THIS MORNING.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER SHOWERY THURSDAY. THE AIR
ALOFT WILL COOL ENOUGH THAT SHOWERS COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
SOME LOWLANDS SPOTS THURSDAY MORNING BUT ACCUMULATIONS...IF ANY...
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SPOTTY AND INSIGNIFICANT. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY FOR A PROBABLE DRY PATCH.
THEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING RAIN LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
FRONT WILL ALSO LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND TO THE COAST AND
NORTHWEST INTERIOR BUT NOT AS MUCH AS TODAY. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...SHOWERS WILL BE DECREASING ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE
FRIDAY NIGHT FRONT. WHILE DETAILS AND SPECIFICS ARE UNCERTAIN...LONG
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR WESTERN
WASHINGTON. SCHNEIDER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A RELATIVELY WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF FRONTS MOVE THROUGH BUT SNOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN LOW. THIS IS NOT A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR RIVER FLOODING.
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED ON AREA RIVERS...INCLUDING THE GREEN
RIVER...FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS. SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG AND MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT. THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME STRONG ONSHORE TODAY BEHIND AN OCCLUDED
FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE...THE SFC FLOW WAS STILL GENERALLY NELY OR LIGHT AT THIS
TIME BUT THE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC WAS INCREASING FROM THE S. THIS
HAS CREATED LLWS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST TIL ABOUT 1500 UTC...1800 UTC AT THE
LATEST...OR TIL THE OCCLUDED FRONT ARRIVES AND THE SFC WINDS VEER TO
SLY AND INCREASE.

CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY THIS MORNING AND THERE
WILL BE AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO IMPROVE OR LIFT
THIS AFTERNOON. THE CASCADES AND OLYMPICS WILL BE OBSCURED FOR MUCH
OF...IF NOT...THE ENTIRE DAY.

KSEA...THE SANDPOINT PROFILER /IN N SEATTLE/ SHOWED SLY WINDS OF 35
KNOTS NEAR 2K FT MSL AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE MENTION
OF LLWS IN THE TAF TIL 1700 UTC OR TIL THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF THE
OCCLUDED FRONT. ANTICIPATE CIGS TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY OR
NEAR 2500 FT THIS MORNING AND THEN LIFT BACK UP INTO THE 4-6K FT
RANGE BEHIND THE FRONT. ALSO...EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS BY
MIDMORNING.
&&

.MARINE...A 974 MB LOW NEAR 47 N AND 130 W WILL CONTINUE MOVING
RAPIDLY TOWARD HAIDA GWAII. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 968 MB AS IT
HEADS N THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.

STORM FORCE WINDS ARE STILL LIKELY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND WEST
ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER THE STORM FORCE WINDS WILL MOST LIKELY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE GUSTS...WITH THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS OCCURING
BEYOND 30 NM OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 17 TO 20 FT...UP
TO 23 FT FARTHER OFFSHORE...ON THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING
BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THIS AFTERNOON.

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED OVER THE INTERIOR WATERS...
FROM THE ADMIRALTY INLET AREA NORTHWARD...BY LATE THIS MORNING OR AS
THE OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HIGH WIND WARNING NORTH AND CENTRAL COAST UNTIL 6 PM TODAY.

PZ...STORM WARNING COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE TODAY.
    .GALE WARNING EASTERN STRAIT...ADMIRALTY INLET...AND NORTHERN
      INLAND WATERS.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL STRAIT AND PUGET SOUND/HOOD CANAL.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

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