Dense Fog in Virginia, November 7, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
300 AM EST MON NOV 7 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIPRES WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE ERN
SEABOARD TDA.

PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ERY THIS MRNG ACROSS THE WRN SUBURBS...
RURAL VLYS FARTHER WEST AND ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS OF THE WRN CHSPK
BAY/TIDAL POTOMAC RVR. AFTER MRNG PATCHY FOG DISSIPATES SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE...THE ENTIRE AREA WILL SEE SUNNY SKIES AND LGT WINDS.
SWLY FLOW LAST NGT HAS ADVECTED WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION...SO
EXPECT MAX TEMPS ABOUT 5F WARMER THAN YDA.

WITH HIPRES OVRHD TNGT...TEMPS WILL QUICKLY FALL AFTER DARK UNDER
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
THIS MRNG...MAYBE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER DUE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DEWPOINTS. PATCHY FOG AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SAME AREAS AS THIS
MRNG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SOMEWHAT WEDGES
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW
PRESSURE WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD STAY DRY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH MAY CONTEND WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE COULD ALSO BE PATCHY FOG TO START WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE CLIMO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WENT NEAR MOS ON TUESDAY...BUT MAV/MEX MOS ARE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BUT STILL
OPTED TO GO ABOVE MOS ON WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOLLOWS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THURSDAY...HELPING TO KEEP A SLUG OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OFF THE COAST. FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE FOR SHOWERS TO MAKE IT EAST OF THE MTNS.
BETTER CHANCE MAY BE WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE BUT EVEN THAT IS
LOOKING SMALL. KEPT MINIMAL CHANCE POPS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
ATTM.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN BACK TO NEAR CLIMO FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEK WITH NEAR CLIMO
TEMPERATURES AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR BR LIKELY ACROSS WRN TERMINALS THRU 12-13Z...ALTHOUGH
IAD IS REPORTING LOCALIZED VSBYS UNDER 1 SM DUE TO FOG. DONT EXPECT
THIS TO BE THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS. HIPRES WILL PROVIDE VFR
CONDITIONS AND LGT/VRB WINDS TDA. PATCHY BR POSSIBLE AGAIN OVNGT
TNGT AND ERY TUE MRNG.

MVFR VSBYS IN FOG ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL ABOUT 13Z TUESDAY AT
MRB/IAD...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS.
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY AN UPPER TROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH AIR TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S OVER WATERS
THAT ARE STILL RELATIVELY WARM /IN THE MID 50S/...AREAS OF FOG WILL
IMPACT MARINERS THRU MID MRNG. VSBYS MAY BE REDUCED UNDER 2SM AT
TIMES. OTHERWISE...HIPRES OVRHD WILL LEAD TO LGT/VRB WINDS TDA. FOG
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN TNGT.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK. COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JRK/BPP
NEAR TERM...JRK
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...JRK/BPP
MARINE...JRK/BPP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
654 PM EST SUN NOV 6 2011

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ006-007-011-013-014-016>018-VAZ052>057-
071000-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR-
CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY-
CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER-
PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD-
TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH
ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-
CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
654 PM EST SUN NOV 6 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MINOR TIDAL  FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SENSITIVE COASTAL
LOCATIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MDZ003>005-009-010-501-502-VAZ025>031-036>040-042-050-051-501>504-
WVZ050>053-055-501>506-071000-
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA-
ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-
ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND-
EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-
WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-
654 PM EST SUN NOV 6 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

KRAMAR