Widespread high based showers developed over eastern New Mexico and spread into West Texas late in the evening on the 26th. Some of these showers were strong enough to produce a 60 mph wind gust near Denver City (Yoakum County).
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
Widespread high based showers developed over eastern New Mexico and spread into West Texas late in the evening on the 26th. Some of these showers were strong enough to produce a 60 mph wind gust near Denver City (Yoakum County).
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 26, 8:53 PM CST, 33 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 953 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2011 .UPDATE... INHERITED FORECAST LARGELY REMAINS ON TRACK. LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL BE A BIT SLOWER TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION. THUS...WE SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE RAIN /RAIN-SNOW MIX IN THE FAR NORTHWEST/ ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA BEFORE NOON THEN TAPERING WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. FROZEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE METRO LUBBOCK AREA WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE ABOUT 3700 FT ELEVATION...GIVE OR TAKE A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET. HAVE THEREFORE BUMPED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING WARMTH OF SOIL. 8 INCH SOIL TEMPS STILL IN THE 60S. POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY MORNING STILL LOOKS GOOD AND WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO FREEZE WATCH HEADLINES. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2011/ AVIATION... BOTH TERMINALS START OUT VFR BUT THAT WILL QUICKLY CHANGE LATER THIS EVENING. POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE BEHIND A SECONDARY SURGE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. STRATUS DECK IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NORTH KAMA TO KGAG LINE AND WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD AFTER SUNSET BRINGING WITH IT DETERIORATING CIGS/VISBY. KCDS COULD VERY WELL SEE CONDITIONS DROP TO BELOW MINIMUMS BEFORE DAYBREAK. KLBB WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIFR/IFR BUT WITH THE CLIMATICALLY FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION /NE/ AND UPSLOPE FLOW...IT TOO MAY DROP BELOW MINIMUMS. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE A BIT MORE OPTIMISTICALLY ON THE FORECAST BUT EXTRA ATTENTION TO TRENDS IS WARRANTED. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2011/ SHORT TERM... WEATHER TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM BRINGS PROSPECTS FOR WIDESPREAD/PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING A BRIEF BOUT OF WINTRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH/NORTHWESTERN ZONES. NORTHEASTERLY/UPSLOPE BREEZES PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF AN EARLY MORNING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER A BROAD AREA OF PRESSURE FALLS IS NOTED/CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO IN ADVANCE OF THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPICTED IN VAPOR IMAGERY EJECTING OVER ARIZONA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FEATURE EJECTING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AS A SHARP BUT OPEN AND POSITIVELY TILTED WAVE. INITIAL HEIGHT/PRESSURE FALLS AND DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INDUCE A TIGHTENING POST FRONTAL MSLP GRADIENT AND STRENGTHENING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT LATE TONIGHT AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED FRONTOGENETICAL PROCESSES WITHIN THE 700-600MB LAYER ALONG A ZONE FROM EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. THUS BEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO IMPACT THE NORTHWESTERN/NORTHERN ZONES OF THE FA BETWEEN ROUGHLY 06-15Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PROFILES WILL COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR PERHAPS A TRANSITION TOWARD ALL SNOW OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE/NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS BETWEEN 06-12Z...WITH ONLY A FEW HOURS OF FAVORABLE LIFT/SATURATION OF THE FAVORED SNOW GROWTH LAYER. THUS A SHORT DURATION AND WARM SURFACE CONDITIONS SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL TO A LOCALIZED ONE INCH OR LESS...WITH ONLY A DUSTING AT MOST LOCATIONS THAT ACTUALLY RECEIVE SNOW. OTHERWISE PROFILES SHOW A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL WARM NOSE AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...ALBEIT WITH MINIMAL CAPE...SO SCATTERED/NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN THE DOMINANT MODE. HAVE LINGERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES A BIT LONGER THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY AS THE UA TROUGH AXIS TRANSLATES OVERHEAD DURING THE 18-21Z TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO A FURTHER DECREASE IN EXPECTED DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH NORTHERLY BREEZES AND DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. LONG TERM... THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS ON FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. ON SUNDAY...THE GFS IS BEGINNING TO SHOW A SHARPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE THE ECM IS DEPICTING A SLIGHTLY BROADER TROUGH THAN SEEN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. ENSEMBLE MEANS SMOOTH THE HEIGHT FIELD OUT INTO A BROAD TROUGH BUT THERE IS HIGH SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ECM AND GFS IN THE FORECAST. AFTER THE COLD TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A WARMUP THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BRIEFLY RETARDING THE WARMUP. MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FRONT AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THE WARMUP WILL RESUME ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH LEE SIDE TROUGHING AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW A 1030-1040MB HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MIDWEEK BEHIND THIS FRONT. JDV && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 32 42 29 57 34 / 90 50 0 0 0 TULIA 33 42 29 56 34 / 90 70 0 0 0 PLAINVIEW 34 41 31 56 36 / 90 70 0 0 0 LEVELLAND 36 44 31 59 37 / 80 60 0 0 0 LUBBOCK 37 43 32 58 37 / 80 60 0 0 0 DENVER CITY 38 46 31 60 36 / 70 50 0 0 0 BROWNFIELD 39 44 32 61 36 / 70 60 0 0 0 CHILDRESS 38 47 35 61 39 / 80 70 0 0 0 SPUR 40 45 35 58 38 / 70 70 0 0 0 ASPERMONT 42 46 36 59 37 / 60 60 10 0 0 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>035-039>041. && 26/99
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 306 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2011 TXZ021>044-272015- PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE- FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING- YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL- 306 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT RAIN WILL MIX WITH OR TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A DUSTING OF SNOW ON GRASSY AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH LOW PROBABILITIES FOR LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE INCH OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS. A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet station near Denver City recorded a wind gust to 60 mph. No damage was reported.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, October 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 346387.