High Wind in Texas, May 24, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
922 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

.UPDATE...
WILL BE UPGRADING PORTIONS OF THE WIND ADVISORY TO A HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR TODAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL ALSO
ISSUE A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING
ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING...WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE/DRYING
NOTED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UA TROUGH.  THE WHITE SANDS PROFILER
INDICATED WINDS STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE COLUMN AT 24/13Z WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 25KT IN THE LOWEST GATE...TO 40KT AT H7 AND 65KT AT
H5.  A 997MB SURFACE LOW RESIDED OVER THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
AT 24/14Z...WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.

EXPECT THE SAID UA TROUGH TO EJECT EAST NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW
MEXICO TODAY...ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS AT IT/S BASE
WHICH WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA WITH WINDS MIXING DOWN
THROUGH A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER...ROUGHLY FROM H6 TO THE SURFACE.  THE
SURFACE LOW OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL DEEPEN TO AROUND 992MB AS IT
TREKS NORTHEASTWARD INTO KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING OVER THE AREA.  THINK THESE
FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE HIGH WINDS FROM THE VAN HORN AND
DAVIS MOUNTAINS AREA...NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
PLAINS.  ALTHOUGH THE H7 GRADIENT IS NOT QUITE TIGHT ENOUGH FOR
HIGH WINDS ACCORDING TO A HIGH WIND FORECAST DECISION STUDY...
THINK THE MIXING THROUGH SUCH A DEEP LAYER DUE TO THE HOT
TEMPERATURES MAY MAKE UP FOR THIS.  THEREFORE...WILL UPGRADE THE
WIND ADVISORY IN THESE AREAS TO A HIGH WIND WARNING AS SPEEDS OF
35 TO 45 MPH AND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.  SURFACE
WIND SPEEDS MAY NOT BE TOO MUCH LESS OVER THE REST OF THE WIND
ADVISORY AREA...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE PERMIAN BASIN FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.  WILL ALSO ISSUE A
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE...SINCE DROUGHT CONDITIONS
HAVE PROVIDED MUCH DUST TO BLOW AROUND...AND WITH THE WIND SPEEDS
EXPECTED...THINK SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE A MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITY AT TIMES.  UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              98  58  93  55  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                97  61  96  56  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                 103  67 104  65  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           99  62  96  61  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          87  60  86  58  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   94  55  93  52  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   86  44  88  48  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    96  59  95  56  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  95  60  96  58  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                   103  57 100  59  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST
     PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
     NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... CENTRAL LEA COUNTY...EDDY COUNTY PLAINS...
     GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY...NORTHERN LEA COUNTY...
     SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... CENTRAL LEA COUNTY...EDDY COUNTY
     PLAINS...NORTHERN LEA COUNTY...SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...CRANE...DAVIS/APACHE
     MOUNTAINS AREA...DAWSON...ECTOR...GAINES...GLASSCOCK...
     GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...MARFA PLATEAU...
     MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...PECOS...REAGAN...REEVES
     COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...UPTON...VAN HORN
     AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...
     CRANE...DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA...DAWSON...ECTOR...
     GAINES...GLASSCOCK...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...
     LOVING...MARFA PLATEAU...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...
     PECOS...REAGAN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...
     SCURRY...UPTON...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...
     WINKLER.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA...
     GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...LOVING...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER
     TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...CRANE...DAVIS/APACHE
     MOUNTAINS AREA...DAWSON...ECTOR...GAINES...GLASSCOCK...
     HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...REEVES
     COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...VAN HORN AND
     HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...CRANE...DAWSON...ECTOR...
     GAINES...GLASSCOCK...HOWARD...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...
     SCURRY...WARD...WINKLER.

&&

21/67

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
938 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-251445-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
938 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011 /838 AM MDT TUE MAY 24 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND MUCH OF WEST TEXAS TODAY. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS FOR WEST WINDS OF 40 TO 55 MPH...WITH
GUSTS OVER 75 MPH POSSIBLE. A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS...THE VAN HORN AND
HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS...AND PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER TRANS PECOS REGION...WHERE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR MUCH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN...WHERE WEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO PLAINS...MUCH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN...THE UPPER TRANS PECOS
REGION...THE VAN HORN CORRIDOR...AND THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS...WHERE
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST MAY REDUCE THE VISIBILITY TO AROUND ONE
MILE...PARTICULARLY NEAR OPEN OR PLOWED FIELDS.

THE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS...COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES...
CONSEQUENT LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...AND VERY HIGH TO
EXTREME FIRE DANGER... WILL BRING DANGEROUS HIGH IMPACT FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND MUCH OF WEST TEXAS
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT. THIS
IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION AS WILDFIRES WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO GROW AND SPREAD QUICKLY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND MOST WEST TEXAS WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NECESSARY.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND