Tornadoes and Hail in Kansas, May 24 to 25, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
322 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

MODELS THIS MORNING WERE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS WITH
THE TRACK OF OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH AT 00Z WAS LOCATED
OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. 500MB TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE BASED OF THIS UPPER TROUGH RANGED FROM -18 TO -20C. THIS
MORNINGS MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE INITIALIZE WELL WITH THIS FEATURE
AND BASED ON WATER VAPOR LOOP AT 06Z THE GFS AND NAM BOTH WERE
HANDLING THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THIS NEXT FEATURE WELL. FOLLOW THE
TRACK OF THE 500MB UPPER TROUGH, 250 MB JET AND 400MB POTENTIAL
VORTICITY (PV) THE GENERAL IDEA OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY TUESDAY STILL LOOKS ON
TRACK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEPS THIS DEVELOPING LOW FURTHER
NORTH THAN THE NAM WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED THE SURFACE
FEATURES A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH DUE TO THE OUTFLOW FROM THE STORMS
THAT IT DEVELOPS IN NORTHWEST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. GLANCING
AT THE MOSAIC RADAR AT 08Z IT APPEARS THAT THE NAM MAY BE CLOSER
TO REALITY GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS. RUC13 AND HRRR ALSO SEEMS TO BE
POINTING TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTION AS WELL. GIVEN
THIS AND FOLLOWING THE MEAN TRACK OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION THE THE
UPPER JET AND 400MB PV IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE NAM MAY HAVE A
SLIGHT EDGE OVER THE GFS. AS A RESULT WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE
SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTION OF THE NAM. AT THIS TIME HOWEVER
WILL NOT GO AS FAR SOUTH OR EAST AS WHAT THE NAM CURRENTLY
SUGGESTS JUST YET GIVEN SOME MINOR DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL JET. STILL EVEN WITH THESE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS THERE SHOULD BE A NICE DRY INTRUSION DEVELOPING IN
SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS DRY INTRUSION
APPROACHING THE HAYS AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE DRY
LINE EXTENDING ALMOST DUE SOUTH OF HAYS INTO OKLAHOMA. AFTERNOON
CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG AND 0-6KM VALUES OF 40-50KTS IN
THIS AREA LATE DAY SO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS STILL APPEAR
LIKELY. ALSO GIVEN THE 40KT SOUTH WINDS AT 850MB PROGGED ALONG THE
DRYLINE/WARM FRONT AT 00Z THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR
LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING TO SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT AS WELL.

BY EARLY TONIGHT THESE SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOPED NEAR THE
DRYLINE WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE REGION AS THE COLD UPPER LEVEL
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS. GIVEN THESE COOL 500MB
TEMPERATURES THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO KEEP A MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MOISTURE WRAPS
AROUND THE 850-700MB LOW. EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT A FEW OF THESE
STORMS IN WESTERN KANSAS COULD EVEN PRODUCE SOME HAIL OR GUSTY
WINDS ALTHOUGH THE SIZE OF THE HAIL WILL BE MUCH SMALLER THAN THAT
ANTICIPATED IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
DECREASE BY MIDNIGHT AS THIS UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY
EAST/NORTHEAST. BASED ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE, WARM AIR ADVECTION,
AND FRONTOGENESIS WHICH WILL CONTINUE UNDER THIS SLOW MOVING
SYSTEM HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION GOING UNTIL
THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES INTO NORTHEASTERN KANSAS LATE
WEDNESDAY. CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN ON
WEDNESDAY SO HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH. IN ADDITION SOME STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING AT GCK AND
DDC AT LEAST +50KTS AT OR BELOW 850 MB LEVEL EARLY WEDNESDAY.
COULD SEE WINDS APPROACHING HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA IN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET TO
ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING WARNING YET. HIGH END WIND ADVISORY MAY
BE MORE APPROPRIATE BUT AFTER GOOD COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ISSUING A HIGH END WIND ADVISORY
JUST YET GIVEN THE CURRENT SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS.

DAYS 3-7...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TRANSITIONING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY THEN BREAKING
DOWN AS IT EXITS EAST INTO THE EASTERN CONUS FRIDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
WESTERN KANSAS BY THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME BUT THE CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO THE VERY EXTREME NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM REMAINING WELL TO
OUR NORTH IN THE DAKOTAS. ANY PRECIP WILL BE RELIANT ON HOW FAR
SOUTH AN UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED THE TROUGH REACHES AS IT STREAMS
EASTWARD OUT OF THE ROCKIES. WILL RETAIN THE MENTION OF SLIGHT POPS
ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINING AS TO WHERE THE JET STREAM WILL SET UP. OTHERWISE, DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXITS THE ROCKIES AND PUSHES INTO THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP SOMEWHAT THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL
DEVELOP HELPING TO SWING SURFACE WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP DRAW WARMER AIR
BACK UP INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TEENS(C) EAST TO NEAR 25C IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHWEST. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWER LEVELS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED. LOOK FOR HIGHS UP INTO
THE 70S(F) FOR THE MOST PART WITH LOW TO MID 80S(F) A POSSIBILITY IN
OUR EXTREME SOUTHWEST. MAY NEED TO BUMP UP HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES OR
SO IN OUR MOST SOUTHWESTERN ZONES THURSDAY. AS MENTIONED BEFORE, AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FRIDAY DROPPING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO WESTERN
KANSAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BE FAIRLY WEAK AND WILL ONLY KEEP HIGHS FROM CLIMBING TOO MUCH FROM
THE DAY PREVIOUS. THE WARMING TREND IS PROJECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER IN THE VICINITY
OF KHYS EARLY THIS MORNING. MAY PUT A MENTION OF AT LEAST VCTS FOR
THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE DEPENDING ON RADAR RETURNS LEADING UP TO THAT
TIME. KHYS MAY EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ANY CONVECTION. OTHERWISE, LOW PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
ADVECTING INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE
VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY RETURN GENERALLY AFTER 17Z. HOWEVER, SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. WITH
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINING AS TO WHERE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE, WILL
JUST CARRY CB'S AT ALL TAF SITES AS A RESULT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY 5 TO 15KT THROUGH LATE MORNING AS A
RESULT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN KANSAS. WINDS
WILL VARY IN DIRECTION AND SPEED THIS AFTEROON AND EVENING AS THE
SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN KANSAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  84  55  66  47 /  30  30  30  10
GCK  81  53  65  46 /  30  30  30  10
EHA  81  52  70  46 /  10  10  10   0
LBL  83  53  71  47 /  10  20  20   0
HYS  80  55  63  47 /  70  80  60  10
P28  86  59  72  52 /  60  70  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN18/32/32

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1210 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-241715-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
1210 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011 /1110 AM MDT MON MAY 23 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM JOHNSON CITY TO MEDICINE LODGE. THE SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. FURTHER
NORTH...SMALLER HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKLES IS POSSIBLE. HEAVY
RAIN AND LIGHTNING ARE ALSO SECONDARY THREATS ACROSS THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF A LINE FROM ELLIS TO
COLDWATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THESE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL. ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED
TO BE SECONDARY THREATS.

STRONG NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY EVENING NEAR INTERSTATE 70. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
JOHNSON CITY TO MEDICINE LODGE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

SUGDEN