Tornadoes and Hail in Missouri, May 24 to 25, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
857 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

WANTED TO GIVE A QUICK UPDATE ON THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
OUR AREA AS THE LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO OUR FAR
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS COUNTIES AND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO FAR
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THROUGH 10 PM. THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70 KTS AT COFFEYVILLE KANSAS. AS THESE STORMS
MOVE EAST THEY WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER A MORE THAN FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. MLCAPE VALUES CONTINUE
TO BE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION. THOSE HIGH
CAPE VALUES ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT STRONG ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF SUSTAINING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND LARGE HAIL GROWTH. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS
REVEALED WINDS AT THE SURFACE HAVE CONTINUED TO BACK THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THIS HAS INCREASED EFFECTIVE HELICITY
AVAILABLE TO THESE STORMS WITH VALUES OF 250 TO 350 M^2/S^2 ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THIS PAIRED WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 45
KTS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW LEVEL ROTATION...CAPABLE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS. THIS WILL ALSO AID IN INCREASING
LOW LEVEL ROTATION WHICH COULD AID IN ROTATING WALL CLOUD AND
TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.

THE MOST RECENT SPC OUTLOOK HAS MODERATE RISK ACROSS THE WHOLE
FORECAST AREA. ALSO...A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM.

KURTZ

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND CENTRAL IOWA ALONG A SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH A RIPPLE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND A
WEAK THETA E AXIS. HOWEVER...MORE IMPORTANTLY FOR OUR
AREA...CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO FIRE OUT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. THIS CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DRY LINE THAT HAS
SET UP FROM CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHICH IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH MOVED OFF THE
COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND IS CURRENTLY OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
THIS LINE OF ISOLATED CELLS HAS ALREADY SPAWNED BOTH SEVERE AND
TORNADO WARNINGS AS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE STORMS. AS FOR US...AN EML HAS CONTINUED TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION THROUGH NOON AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING DRY LINE OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. SURFACE DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO SURGE
INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS AS
STRONG SURFACE RETURN FLOW CONTINUES TO PULL DEEP SWATHS OF GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THEREFORE...A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO BUILD UNDER THE CAP. GUIDANCE HAS OVER 3000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WITH
LIMITED MLCIN. AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE EAST IT TAKES ON A
NEGATIVE TILT...RESULTING IN A VEERING OF THE WIND PROFILE. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SET THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...WHERE THE SPC HAS
CONTINUED TO GO WITH A HIGH RISK...COVERING PORTIONS OUR EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSOURI COUNTIES.
INDIVIDUAL CELLS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE EAST NORTHEAST...WITH
THE LINE ADVANCING EAST OVER TIME.

AT THIS TIME...EXPECTATIONS REMAIN FOR SUPERCELLS TO THREATEN
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI IN THE EVENING
HOURS...MOST LIKELY NEAR OR AROUND 7PM FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
COUNTIES AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
7.5 TO 8.5 C /KM WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LARGE MLCAPE VALUES
AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 TO 50KTS THROUGH THE
EVENING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG MID
LEVEL ROTATION WITHIN THE DEVELOPING STORMS. THIS ALONG WITH THE
EVER INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT THE GROWTH OF VERY LARGE
HAIL...UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS. AS
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK EVER SO
SLIGHTLY AT THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY...WHICH
WOULD ALTER STORM INFLOW INCREASING HELICITY AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES ARE EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE AS DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WITH VALUES OF 30 TO 45KTS. BOTH INCREASING HELICITY AND
0-1KM SHEAR WILL AID IN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL ROTATION WITHIN
THE STRONGEST STORMS. THEREFORE...THESE STORMS WILL POSE THE
GREATEST RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE DAMAGING HAIL...AND
HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES.

THE GREATEST RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL BE MAINLY WEST
OF THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. LATER TONIGHT...EXPECTING
THE COLD POOL TO STRENGTHEN BEHIND THESE STORMS CAUSING DISCRETE
CELLS TO MERGE INTO A POSSIBLE QLCS. OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...STORMS COULD FORM A STRONG MCS EXPECTING TO PROPAGATE
EAST ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. COULD ALSO
SEE LINGERING CONVECTION ALONG VARIOUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT
WILL LIKELY BE KICKED UP FROM THE EVENINGS STRONGEST STORMS.

PERSONS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA ARE URGED TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
UPDATED FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS TODAY.

UNFORTUNATELY...FOR WEDNESDAY...WE WILL ONCE AGAIN CONDITIONS LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OZARKS. THIS IS DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUING TO TAKE A SLOW TRACK TO THE EAST. ONCE AGAIN THE DRY LINE
WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA AND MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. AS WITH TODAY...A VERY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE SET UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY. CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EAST OF HIGHWAY 65...AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ONCE AGAIN
ESTABLISH THEMSELVES IN THE 7.5 TO 8.5 C RANGE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 35 TO 45KTS. MLCAPE VALUES ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI ARE FORECASTED WELL OVER 2000
J/KG.  0-1KM SHEAR VALUES HEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 35 TO 45KTS.  THE DECENT SHEAR
PROFILE AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE
SPC CURRENTLY HAS A MODERATE RISK OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. AS FOR CONVECTIVE MODE...FORECAST IS
STILL A LITTLE HAZY...HOWEVER...MOST LIKELY LOOKING AT DISCRETE
CELLS FORMING IN THE LATE MORNING...OF COURSE THIS WILL DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH PRECIP LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION FROM TUESDAY NIGHT EARLY
ON WEDNESDAY.  THROUGH MID-DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING...THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO CATCH UP TO
THE DRY LINE...THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE COLD POOL RESULTING IN ANY
DISCRETE CELLS CONGEALING INTO A LINEAR TYPE STRUCTURE.

THEREFORE...HAVE COVERED MOST OF THE AREA WITH LIKELY TO CHANCE POPS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS PINPOINTING CONVECTION WOULD BE LESS THAN IDEAL.

FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT BESIDES SOME LINGERING PRECIP POSSIBLE EARLY
THURSDAY...WE SHOULD SEE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING BEFORE A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BRINGS US A QUICK SHOT AT SOME PRECIP. AFTER THAT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING SETS UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL AMPLIFY DUE TO DIGGING
ENERGY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND...WITH
SOME ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

KURTZ

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF ISSUANCE...KSGF/KJLN/KBBG...

ANOTHER TRICKY TAF FORECAST AS THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN
IMPACT ALL THREE SITES AT MULTIPLE TIMES DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. CURRENTLY A SEVERE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. EXPECTING STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS TO ENTER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PM TONIGHT.
THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS FOR TOMORROW...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT ALL THREE SITES NEAR
NOON AND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO
HOVER BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AT VARIOUS TIMES THROUGH THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER...AS ALWAYS...ANY SITE THAT IS DIRECTLY IMPACTED
BY A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAN EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP BELOW IFR.
TAFS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS.

KURTZ

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
759 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-260100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
759 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER RISK LEVEL IS...SIGNIFICANT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED TORNADO RISK.
  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG A DRY LINE FROM
  SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
  AFTERNOON...ARE NOW TRANSITIONING INTO A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
  THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH.
  CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL BEGIN TO
  MOVE INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI
  AROUND 9 PM. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS MUCH OF
  EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS THIS EVENING
  INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR DAMAGING
  WINDS WILL EXIST WITH THIS LINE...WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH
  POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TORNADOES AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS
  WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE.

  IN ADDITION TO THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...THERE REMAINS A
  RISK OF FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
  THIS INCLUDES AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF TABLE ROCK LAKE AND LAKE
  TANEYCOMO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

  NON THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ON
  WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

  SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY
  ON WEDNESDAY NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR.
THESE
  STORMS WILL THEN MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
  EASTERN MISSOURI OZARKS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND EXIT CENTRAL
  AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WIND FIELDS
  IN THE ATMOSPHERE MAY SUPPORT SPLITTING SUPERCELLS...WITH ANY
  EASTWARD MOVING STORMS CONTAINING AN ELEVATED TO SIGNIFICANT
  TORNADO THREAT. VERY LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS AND
  WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

  PERSONS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS
  ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL
  WEATHER SERVICE REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
  BOTH TONIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

  THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO PERSIST INTO AT LEAST
  THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI NEAR TABLE ROCK
  LAKE...LAKE TANEYCOMO...AND BULL SHOALS LAKE.

  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING ACROSS
  EXTREME WESTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SPOTTER
  ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
  MISSOURI OZARKS FROM LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
  PERIOD.

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL THEN LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING WEST
  OF HIGHWAY 65 AND MAYBE NEEDED EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR
  OVERNIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

WISE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
924 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0924 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     NEUTRAL                 37.10N 94.79W
05/24/2011                   CHEROKEE           KS   STORM CHASER

&&

WISE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
958 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0932 PM     LIGHTNING        5 NW FORT SCOTT         37.89N 94.77W
05/24/2011                   BOURBON            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HOME WAS HIT BY LIGHTNING WHICH RESULTED IN A SMALL FIRE
            IN THE SOUTH PART OF FORT SCOTT.

&&

WISE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
959 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0959 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST GALENA                  37.08N 94.64W
05/24/2011  E70 MPH          CHEROKEE           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

WISE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1001 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0959 PM     TSTM WND GST     GALENA                  37.08N 94.64W
05/24/2011  E70.00 MPH       CHEROKEE           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

WISE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1003 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0959 PM     TSTM WND GST     GALENA                  37.08N 94.64W
05/24/2011  E75 MPH          CHEROKEE           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

WISE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1007 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1002 PM     TSTM WND GST     CRESTLINE               37.17N 94.70W
05/24/2011  M68 MPH          CHEROKEE           KS   STORM CHASER

&&

WISE