Winter Weather in Texas, January 24 to 25, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
533 PM CST MON JAN 24 2011

.AVIATION...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ABOUT CHANCES FOR SNOW AT BOTH
TAF SITES THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SO FAR...MODELS DO
NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON HOW THINGS ARE EVOLVING AND HAVE KEPT
THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW FORECAST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES.
OPTED TO CONTINUE THE TIMING IN THE PREVIOUS TAFS BUT DID START TO
BRING CEILINGS DOWN A BIT FASTER CLOSE TO THE MVFR RANGE.
HOWEVER...THERE STILL IS A POSSIBILITY THAT CEILINGS WILL DIP DOWN
INTO HIGH IFR RANGE. ALL THAT BEING SAID...DO NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW AMENDMENTS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THINGS UNFOLD.

GOOD NEWS IS THAT ANY ISSUES IN THE TAFS WILL IMPROVE BY TOMORROW
MORNING AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION AND WE
RETURN TO DRY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CST MON JAN 24 2011/

SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS MOVING SEWD OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SRN
ROCKIES ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AN EVENING...THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH IS MOVING ALMOST DUE SOUTH THROUGH NM AT THIS TIME.
THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT RUNS FROM NEAR TATUM NM...TO LUBBOCK...TO
CHILDRESS AT 3 PM...WITH THE STRONGEST PUSH ALONG THE TX/NM
BORDER. WIND SPEEDS FROM CLOVIS EAST TO DIMMIT HAVE BEEN SUSTAINED
AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH. THE POST-FRONTAL WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MAINLY TO THE WEST OF
I-27/US-87 AND A WIND ADVISORY FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SPLNS
RUNS UNTIL 23Z.

AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT IS NOW SPREADING OVER THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED
FROM CLINES CORNERS OVER TO CLAYTON NM. AS THE FORCING SHIFTS
SOUTH...THE LIGHT PRECIP MAY SPREAD INTO THE FAR SW PANHANDLE AND
WRN SPLNS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH VERY DRY-LOW LEVELS SATURATION WILL
BE SLOW TO OCCUR AND AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN A TRACE
OF RAIN/SNOW ACCUMULATION...EXCEPT UNDER ANY ISOLD MESOSCALE BANDS
LIKE WHAT APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING UP NEAR VEGA. PRECIP CHANCES
APPEAR EVEN LOWER FARTHER EAST UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN THE TROUGH
TURNS MORE EASTERLY AND LIFT INCREASES ACROSS THE ERN TIER OF THE
CWA. WHILE IT APPEARS THAT THE CENTRAL ZONES /INCLUDING LUBBOCK/
HAVE ONLY THE SLIGHTEST OF CHANCES TO RECEIVE ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIP FROM THE SE SPLNS THROUGH THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS FROM AROUND
4-5Z TO 9-10Z. WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS...ACCUMULATIONS
MAY BE HIGHER IN THIS AREA. FCST SNDGS DO SHOW THAT THE PRECIP MAY
BEGIN AS RAIN WHICH MAY LIMIT THE DURATION OF SNOWFALL. HAVE KEPT
THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IN THIS AREA UNDER AN INCH...BUT THERE IS
AT LEAST A SLIM CHANCE THAT A MESOSCALE BAND MIGHT FORM AND BE
PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE GREATER AMOUNTS...WILL HOLD OFF ANY
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME...AS CONFIDENCE IN THIS POTENTIAL REMAINS
QUITE LOW. THE SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...LEAVING
CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING NRLY WINDS SLOWLY TURNING TO THE
WEST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 50S MOST
LOCATIONS AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN LATE.

LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER NORTH AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR COOLER
AIR IN THE EASTERN U.S. AND WARMER AIR IN THE WEST THROUGHOUT THIS
WEEK. UPPER FLOW OVER OUR LOCAL AREA SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THUS YIELDING LITTLE
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN TENDS TO MINIMIZE THE THREATS OF HIGH WINDS.

EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE MINIMAL WITHIN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...MODELS SHOW A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST INTO THE ROCKIES. ONE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO SINK SOUTHWEST TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA THURSDAY AND THEN EJECT
EAST ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS COMING WEEKEND. THE
EJECTING UPPER LOW RESULTS IN PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL AND EAST
TEXAS WELL TO OUR SOUTH.

FOR THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK...WE ARE WATCHING ANOTHER POSSIBLE
SHOT OF COLDER CANADIAN AIR WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT IT COULD
INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO
BRING US A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.  THESE MODEL SCENARIOS ARE
INTERESTING TO WATCH SINCE THEY PROVIDE SOME HOPE OF PRECIPITATION
RETURNING TO THE REGION.  HOWEVER...REPEATEDLY THIS WINTER WE HAVE
SEEN LONG RANGE FORECAST OF UPPER LOWS IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WHICH HAVE TURNED OUT TO BE QUICKLY VANISHING HOPES FOR
PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW WE REMAIN HOPEFUL...BUT VERY SKEPTICAL.

POSSIBLY OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE ARE FORECASTS FROM THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER WHICH SHOW AN INCREASED CH ACNE OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR OUR LOCAL AREA AND MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE U.S. FROM JANUARY 30 THROUGH FEBRUARY 7.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        15  50  22  44  18 /  20   0   0   0   0
TULIA         18  50  22  43  20 /  20   0   0  10   0
PLAINVIEW     18  50  22  46  19 /  20  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     19  50  22  48  18 /  20  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       22  51  24  49  21 /  20  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   21  50  24  51  18 /  20   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    21  50  24  50  20 /  20  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     26  52  27  51  23 /  20  10   0   0   0
SPUR          26  50  26  51  20 /  30  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     30  51  27  54  21 /  40  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1254 PM CST MON JAN 24 2011

TXZ021>044-251900-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1254 PM CST MON JAN 24 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO
35 MPH WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 50 MPH AS IT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH
THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE LOCATED
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS AND A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 5 PM
CST.

A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TONIGHT. SNOWFALL TOTALS MAY
APPROACH ONE INCH. THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 84.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.