Winter Weather in Georgia, January 24, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1233 AM EST MON JAN 24 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE TEXAS COAST.  THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ALONG THE GULF COAST TUESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
WEDNESDAY.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FROM
THE WEST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. THERE IS A BAND OF LIGHT PCPN IN AN AREA OF
WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERIC ASCENT OUT AHEAD OF THE WAVE. THIS AREA OF
PCPN WILL SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST SREF HAS A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS OF IN INCH OF QPF ALONG THE TN FROM 09 TO 12 UTC.
THICKNESSES EASILY SUPPORT ALL SNOW...SO THERE WON/T BE ANY PROBLEMS
WITH FREEZING RAIN. MODEL SOUNDINGS STAY DRY BELOW 5KFT FOR THE MOST
PART...AND WITH THE HIGH CLOUD BASES A LOT OF THE PCPN WILL
EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND. THE DAY SHIFT HAD SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW OVER THE NC MTNS. THIS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD
FORECAST AND I/VE MADE ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
COULD SEE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO OF FLUFFY SNOW...BUT THIS
SHOULDN/T HAVE ANY ADVERSE EFFECTS ON TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...BKN TO OVC SKY COVER WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH
DECREASING SKY COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON. LLVL SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND SLOW AND STEADY WAA SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. INCREASING INSOLATION AND WAA MAY RESULT IN A DEGREE TO TWO
WARMING OVER TODAY/S HIGHS. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH A LIGHT ENE WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE FOR THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD MAKING IT EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN ANY SPECIFICS
REGARDING THE EXTENT OF WINTER WX ACROSS THE AREA TUE-WED. THE TRACK
OF THE SFC LOW...TEMPERATURES AND THKNS PROFILES VARY WIDELY WITH
SOME MODELS INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT FOR THE MTNS WHILE
OTHERS SHOW WARMER TEMP PROFILES. IN ANY CASE...AT LEAST ADVSRY
LEVEL SNOWFALL IS PSBL FOR THE MTNS TUE NIGHT-WED. WITH THIS
UNCERTAINTY IN MIND I USED A MODEL BLEND TO TRY TO IRON OUT MOST OF
THE DIFFERENCES. ONE THING GUIDANCE HAS IN COMMON IS A 500MB TROF
DIGGING ACROSS THE S PLAINS MON NIGHT AND TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY
TUE. MOST MODELS TRACK THE SFC LOW S OF THE CWA WHILE THE GEM KEEPS
IT N AS IT MOVES TO THE COAST WED. FAVORED A COMPROMISE HERE AS WELL.

AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE DEEP S TUE-WED...MOISTURE WILL SURGE
N ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL COOL INTO THE M20S-L30S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH 20S MTNS. HIGHS TUE WARM INTO THE M-U40S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH M30S-M40S MTNS. LOOK FOR INCRSNG POPS
DURING THE DAY TUE. EVEN CONSIDERING WARMER SFC TEMPS IN THE
MTNS...WET BULB TEMPS AND COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL STILL ALLOW FOR A
CHANCE OF WET SNOW IN THE AFTN...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN E OF THE
MTNS. AS TEMPS COOL TUE NIGHT AND DEEP MOISTURE BLANKETS THE AREA...
CATEGORICAL SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE MTNS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
WITH A RAIN-SNOW MIX DOWN TO ABOUT THE I-85 CORRIDOR...WITH RAIN
FARTHER S. TEMPS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO WARM A COUPLE DEG WED WITH
RAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WED MRNG AND SNOW IN THE MTNS.
PRECIP SHOULD DIMINISH LATE WED AFTN AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE
SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM EST SUNDAY...A MEAN EAST COAST TROUGH WILL PERSIST...
RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL LEAVE THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
WEAKER SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON
THURSDAY...AND ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE CAROLINAS AND
GEORGIA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE BRUSHES THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE OVER OUR AREA ON THURSDAY....WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE NC MOUNTAINS ALONG THE TN BORDER. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW MOST OF THIS MOISTURE BEING EITHER VERY SHALLOW...OR
RATHER ELEVATED. ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE
OR RIME ICING WITH SUPER COOLED WATER IN THE LOWER LAYERS...THERE IS
SOME ICE IN THE CLOUDS ALOFT...AND IF ANY PRECIPITATION SURVIVES THE
DESCENT FROM MID LEVELS...SNOW SHOWERS COULD RESULT...EVEN IN THE
VALLEYS WHICH GET ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HOWEVER
THE ECMWF SUPPORTS SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF
THE THIRD SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT FROM THIS MOISTURE...AS LOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE DRY. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE SATURDAY...CROSSING THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
CHANCE POPS WILL BE CARRIED BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN
THE MOUNTAINS...WITH SNOW BEING THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A WARM NOSE ALOFT FOR SOME SLEET IN
THE FOOTHILLS. SNOW SHOWERS END LAST ALONG THE TN BORDER SUNDAY AS
MOISTURE DECREASES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SHIFTING TO
NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH BASES GENERALLY 6000
FT OR HIGHER WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA THRU MIDDAY...WITH MORE
CLEARING DURING THE AFTN INTO EVE.

OUTLOOK...A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL RESULT IN LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AND REMAIN INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY/NED
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...ARK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
247 PM EST SUN JAN 23 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-242000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
247 PM EST SUN JAN 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF
COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THEN MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
A CONCENSUS OF THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOWS ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW
THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND BLUE
RIDGE...WITH MOSTLY RAIN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ABOUT THE TRACK OF THE LOW...THE AMOUNT OF
COLD AIR ACROSS THE AREA AND SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. STAY TUNED FOR
DETAILS REGARDING POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.